Steve, Thanks for outlining a modified buy and hold strategy in precise terms. Buy and hold means only for the duration of the current intermediate trend (the major trend is down).

A good observation: buy and hold is perhaps the only strategy that works well on the markets this year and since the September breakdown last year. Reversing directions is sometimes confusing, yet after that holding on is pretty straightforward. I wonder why it's the case. This is my first bear market to watch.

Matt, There is a security issue with the form submission on the page for tonight's market update: credentials are not sent through the https, they can be easily sniffed by a third party. Whoever wrote the code needs to change to go through https. I could help with that, if necessary.

So far I cannot login with valid memebership credentials.

An insightful chart. TBT should be about 3 months ahead of the $SPX. A peak in June for TBT should translate into a peak in early September for $SPX.

Bill, almost everyone would have done the same thing as you have today. The up trend is very strong. Money is to be made by going along with the market this year, not against it for whatever stupid reason. this time one cannot blame margin clerks for excessive buying. We'll have fun riding down off the top. Good luck!

Besides, IB has specialized limit orders that would be suitable for this occasion.

Matt should reserve an right to restrict their posting to private e-mails only, as part of ethics handling. No all tyros are alike, and some actually want to learn. Perhaps, Matt should add a category of 'tyro questions' to the blog and ask them to post their questions there.

You should trade yourself based on your own trade objectives and execution plans. Do not follow others blindly! Be yourself, not a part of the herd.

That's a good quote, but .. The wealthy have legislated themselves out of their freedom by selling their freedom to foreign nations, mostly in Asia.They cannot undo that move, because they already lost their power. That's the true price of betrayal. The payment for that betrayal is yet to come. The poor will share it as well, as they let the wealthy to go about their business of selling freedom. There is no way to fix the process until the remittance is over.

Matt, his IP address is coming from a DSL provider sbcglobal.net, and it's a dynamic IP address. He can easily change his IP address, if he wants to. I fully support your ethics action on the guy. He is so much in his mind that he cannot even look, and so irresposible that he cannot even stand for his words, let alone for his money. Enough said.

The story run in Bloomberg of the Russian programmer, who attempted to download GS's market trading code, did confirm that possibility.

Last time he predicted a run to $1300-1380 in December contracts. Now he admits $800-850 with $800 being more probable before a take-off. He now agrees with Matt's predictions.

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Wieg_cor/roger_jul172009.html

Could you please explain why or where it comes from?

She presented an interesting technique of time and prince analysis. Does anyone know if it works on longer charts to last for more than a couple of days?

Matt, Could you please remind me how the minimal target was calculated? Also, what does situation say about the validity of technical analysis: i.e., the head and shoulders haven't played out the way it should. Thanks for your time on answering these.

Steve, How does this bullish short to intermediate term forecast correlate with seasonal patters for the summer months? Very unusual?

A very good observation and a call on the pattern!

Yes. Check CSIQ between May and August of last year. It exhibited that pattern.

If you examine what "commodities and gold follow the general market to a tee" really means, is that this this rally is totally fictitious: it's done by pumping out created dollars into the market to buy securities. The "law of conservation of assets" holds: increases in market indexes equal reduction of purchasing power of the dollar (measured by gold).

Matt's strategy would be to set a stop at 913 (908+5 points) on the short positions in this case.