On an ETF like SRS, in which it is a leveraged derivative of
another underlying ETF (in this case, the IYR), I usually look at
the chart of IYR when trying to decide what SRS and IYR are going
to do. Right now, if I objectively look at IYR, four days ago
it passed the 20 Day, today it's probably going to close over the
50 day and it looks like it will overtake the 200 day in a few
days. Those are of course all positives for IYR and negative
for SRS.
On the negative argument against IYR, the 200 day is FALLING and
IYR's recent rise has been on decreasing volume (wedging up).
I've done well trading SRS this year and perhaps very short term
it is over sold and due for a bounce, but its hard for me to look
at the IYR chart, along with the positive tone of the market, and
come to the conclusion SRS is basing.
Posted by billrosen on 20th of Jul 2009 at 12:43 pm
Yago be careful with your
alwaysbullish
thinking...we are ripe for a pullback anytime, to what extent, we
shall see, it is possible the SPX might not take out 956 and resume
a significant downtrend, the point is, it really does not matter
what the market will do, just play the trend, and while you have
been correct with your bullish thoughts the last week, that can
change on a dime, just be prepared to close out longs if
the market becomes overly bearish. SRS will rise sometime this
week, take that to the bank, and some nimble traders on this site
will make a lot of money when that happens, even if only for a
day.
Yago- please try
to keep posts productive and related to trading ideas and market
analysis during the trading day.
Now regarding SRS, the 15 min mechanical system made 21% in
July, 6% in June, an amazing 55% in May and 64% in April, 55% in
Mar, 31% in Feb, etc. It's made 250% for the year and about
550% since Jan 08. Also the SRS system made money last
week
Someone had a suggestion that only members be allowed to
post. After reading the blog posts this weekend and today, I
highly second that!! I am finding some of these postings
from 2-week trial registrants to be highly irritating
with no real value added.
Posted by mamaduck on 20th of Jul 2009 at 12:48 pm
One approach is to limit the 2 week trial members to a few posts
per day say limit them to 2 or 5 - this way no one person can ruin
the blog for others...
Posted by rgoodwin on 20th of Jul 2009 at 12:54 pm
Yeah, I think one of the selling features of the site is that
newbies get a chance to post, maybe have a question or two
answered, share a little experience and then decide to join the
community. If Matt has to totally take that feature away - I think
it draws away from the attractiveness of the site to newbies.
Another thing - if all of us simply ignored these bozos when
they do post CRAP - then they would get the message their crap is
not welcome here and it won't even get a response. That would
likely frustrate them. If and when Matt has time, if he sees a post
that is counter productive - just hit the delete button! But time
is an issue there for Matt and/or Steve
I don't agree. I really don't think that these "trials"
should include posting privileges. There are just too many of
them and many of them just want to see their names on the
blogs. They take up all of our time. Not just Matt and
Steve. p.
I thought that I would add my 2 cents. I haven't really
had a problem with trial members posting (I missed this weekend's
"problem") and actually think that Yago's posts were fine, not that
he needs me to defend him. He's posted only 9 times, with
reasonable cautions about being too bearish, other than the last
one that may have been trying to be cute - similar to many
others. Bottom line is that I wouldn't change anything unless
more of this weekend's episode occurs, which Matt handled fine
IMO.
I would not stop new posters, they need to get a feel for the
place and you should encourage them to ask and post. You can't have
the old bloggers dominating. As for taking up your time, well
"share" and grow together. Is like saying there is an old lady
trying to cross the road, I have not the time to stop and help,
someone else will. Goes TOTALLY against the grain of how I know
BPT.
Matt did the right thing over the weekend, they are few and far
between, no need to be drastic.
It's like saying BPT is the best already; no one outside is
worthly of having a second opinion. Well, we can't assume that. You
just never know what one might be missing IMO
Yes yago's posts are fine. The problem was over the
weekend with that bullbull marketcall guy, and if we if have
another weekend problem, then we'll have to lock it down.
Or the other option would be to designate moderators that can
police the blog if someone get's way out of line, but only used
when a posted is way out of line and destructive.
Posted by junkmaylbox on 20th of Jul 2009 at 12:46 pm
Matt should reserve an right to restrict their posting to
private e-mails only, as part of ethics handling. No all tyros are
alike, and some actually want to learn. Perhaps, Matt should add a
category of 'tyro questions' to the blog and ask them to post their
questions there.
SRS
Posted by jtverr on 20th of Jul 2009 at 12:03 pm
Sure looks like it's in some type of bottoming process...
SRS chart pattern
Posted by kurzweg on 20th of Jul 2009 at 12:24 pm
On an ETF like SRS, in which it is a leveraged derivative of another underlying ETF (in this case, the IYR), I usually look at the chart of IYR when trying to decide what SRS and IYR are going to do. Right now, if I objectively look at IYR, four days ago it passed the 20 Day, today it's probably going to close over the 50 day and it looks like it will overtake the 200 day in a few days. Those are of course all positives for IYR and negative for SRS.
On the negative argument against IYR, the 200 day is FALLING and IYR's recent rise has been on decreasing volume (wedging up).
I've done well trading SRS this year and perhaps very short term it is over sold and due for a bounce, but its hard for me to look at the IYR chart, along with the positive tone of the market, and come to the conclusion SRS is basing.
Anyway, that's just my perspective. Good Luck.
one more note on IYR
Posted by kurzweg on 20th of Jul 2009 at 12:28 pm
As IYR creeps over 33, one could argue it is setting up to break out.
It could also be forming
Posted by asantana on 20th of Jul 2009 at 12:32 pm
It could also be forming a double top, IYR that is. Many likely scenarios.
since I started the trial
Posted by yago on 20th of Jul 2009 at 12:20 pm
since I started the trial two weeks, I've seen many guys here try to short the market (or buy this SRS puppie), no good man, no good.
Yago be careful with your
Posted by billrosen on 20th of Jul 2009 at 12:43 pm
Yago be careful with your alwaysbullish thinking...we are ripe for a pullback anytime, to what extent, we shall see, it is possible the SPX might not take out 956 and resume a significant downtrend, the point is, it really does not matter what the market will do, just play the trend, and while you have been correct with your bullish thoughts the last week, that can change on a dime, just be prepared to close out longs if the market becomes overly bearish. SRS will rise sometime this week, take that to the bank, and some nimble traders on this site will make a lot of money when that happens, even if only for a day.
You should trade yourself based
Posted by junkmaylbox on 20th of Jul 2009 at 12:42 pm
You should trade yourself based on your own trade objectives and execution plans. Do not follow others blindly! Be yourself, not a part of the herd.
Bullbull, izzat you again?
Posted by shamutooth on 20th of Jul 2009 at 12:40 pm
Bullbull, izzat you again?
Yago- please try to keep posts
Posted by matt on 20th of Jul 2009 at 12:33 pm
Yago- please try to keep posts productive and related to trading ideas and market analysis during the trading day.
Now regarding SRS, the 15 min mechanical system made 21% in July, 6% in June, an amazing 55% in May and 64% in April, 55% in Mar, 31% in Feb, etc. It's made 250% for the year and about 550% since Jan 08. Also the SRS system made money last week
So Matt...
Posted by rgoodwin on 20th of Jul 2009 at 12:42 pm
What's your POINT? That we shouldn't be trying to trade SRS?
Sorry, I'm in a good mood this morning. LOL!
Please let members post only
Posted by pebs on 20th of Jul 2009 at 12:41 pm
Someone had a suggestion that only members be allowed to post. After reading the blog posts this weekend and today, I highly second that!! I am finding some of these postings from 2-week trial registrants to be highly irritating with no real value added.
New members
Posted by mamaduck on 20th of Jul 2009 at 12:48 pm
One approach is to limit the 2 week trial members to a few posts per day say limit them to 2 or 5 - this way no one person can ruin the blog for others...
Newbie Posts
Posted by rgoodwin on 20th of Jul 2009 at 12:54 pm
Yeah, I think one of the selling features of the site is that newbies get a chance to post, maybe have a question or two answered, share a little experience and then decide to join the community. If Matt has to totally take that feature away - I think it draws away from the attractiveness of the site to newbies.
Another thing - if all of us simply ignored these bozos when they do post CRAP - then they would get the message their crap is not welcome here and it won't even get a response. That would likely frustrate them. If and when Matt has time, if he sees a post that is counter productive - just hit the delete button! But time is an issue there for Matt and/or Steve
I don't agree. I really
Posted by Peridot on 20th of Jul 2009 at 12:59 pm
I don't agree. I really don't think that these "trials" should include posting privileges. There are just too many of them and many of them just want to see their names on the blogs. They take up all of our time. Not just Matt and Steve. p.
Title: Trial posting is OK
Posted by twins on 20th of Jul 2009 at 01:16 pm
I thought that I would add my 2 cents. I haven't really had a problem with trial members posting (I missed this weekend's "problem") and actually think that Yago's posts were fine, not that he needs me to defend him. He's posted only 9 times, with reasonable cautions about being too bearish, other than the last one that may have been trying to be cute - similar to many others. Bottom line is that I wouldn't change anything unless more of this weekend's episode occurs, which Matt handled fine IMO.
Bob in NJ
Thats
Posted by ravun on 20th of Jul 2009 at 01:48 pm
not RIGHT, not that I mind really, not my site.
I would not stop new posters, they need to get a feel for the place and you should encourage them to ask and post. You can't have the old bloggers dominating. As for taking up your time, well "share" and grow together. Is like saying there is an old lady trying to cross the road, I have not the time to stop and help, someone else will. Goes TOTALLY against the grain of how I know BPT.
Matt did the right thing over the weekend, they are few and far between, no need to be drastic.
I second that. It's like saying
Posted by gan_ on 20th of Jul 2009 at 01:54 pm
I second that.
It's like saying BPT is the best already; no one outside is worthly of having a second opinion. Well, we can't assume that. You just never know what one might be missing IMO
My comment came about not because
Posted by Peridot on 20th of Jul 2009 at 01:53 pm
My comment came about not because of Yago's posts but because of Bullball, aka........
Peridot
Posted by ravun on 20th of Jul 2009 at 01:54 pm
I know...
Yes yago's posts are fine.
Posted by matt on 20th of Jul 2009 at 01:29 pm
Yes yago's posts are fine. The problem was over the weekend with that bullbull marketcall guy, and if we if have another weekend problem, then we'll have to lock it down.
Or the other option would be to designate moderators that can police the blog if someone get's way out of line, but only used when a posted is way out of line and destructive.
Anyway let's get back to trading
Matt should reserve an right
Posted by junkmaylbox on 20th of Jul 2009 at 12:46 pm
Matt should reserve an right to restrict their posting to private e-mails only, as part of ethics handling. No all tyros are alike, and some actually want to learn. Perhaps, Matt should add a category of 'tyro questions' to the blog and ask them to post their questions there.
I agree matt, Only paying members
Posted by johnc4b13 on 20th of Jul 2009 at 12:46 pm
I agree matt,
Only paying members should post here.