OK. I'm going to lay this out and maybe someone can tell me why it's wrong, besides the fact that it's not a true zig -zag.  Minor detail.   But what stands out to me is how corrective the overall pattern appears when you look at it as such.

I've been studying and applying Fib ratios with associated trading much more frequently lately.        To begin this analysis, I used wave counts in GET to establish the beginning of the cycle wave in '82.  Obviously, if we are in some much bigger mega-trend this doesn't account for it, but it does appear to account for what we do have.  Besides, my  eyes glaze over when E-waves go too far back in time and we try to relate it to now. I always think what if they are only 10 years off in their count?

Anyway,

In a common zig zag corrective pattern,  Segment B-C corrects segment A-B usually less than a .618%  We have fulfilled that criteria.  

In addition, segment B-C is fairly symmetrical in price size to segment D-E. The market loves symmetry in connected moves. The symmetry is demonstrated by the very closely equal blue segments.

Also, It would be fairly common for segment D-E to retrace the distance of a fib retrace/extension of 1.0 to 1.27 the distance of segment C-D, originating from point D.

 You see where this is going.  If this apparent corrective action has any merit then B could mark the top of wave 5, Point C completes wave A, Point D completes corrective wave B and the pattern is complete at Point E, which is really completed wave C.  

So where would this leave us, if this scenario was correct?  Well the wave count correction would be complete.  We could then possibly be in wave 3 up now or possibly later waves of primary one.  OK, your turn.  Why is it wrong?  Could a wave C not be so violent? Please feel free to refute it.  Are we possibly nearer a correction than a wave C or Primary 3 down?

BTW,

If you did eliminate it search the web for audio file player programs.  Probably a half dozen or more out there. Windows media, Adobe others.

Look in the recycle bin if you didn't empty it. It should be your program to play mp3 files.  I'm not sure if they come in any other format for BPT.

Take a few minutes and read this blog this weekend.  Nicely laid out, thoughtful.

http://principleanalysis.blogspot.com/

I see fan charts all over the net now.  Maybe you have some real fans?

Without looking at my chart.  1120-1125 area is about the 50% retracement of the move down, so yes it is still important.  

Yep, had it on my candle chart.  

Looks like not much is in the way until we hit 71

I'm not clear on whether you need explanation or just a chart.

Without going into the false signal-P3 thing, the only comment I would like to make is a simple one.  In general the Bollinger bands are terrific at containing extreme price moves.   I use them  along with Keltner channels constantly.   But, from experience, during what we are calling our former wave A.  the Bollinger bands and Keltner channels were routinely violated for much longer periods than you would think could possibly occur.  So the point being, if this turns out to be a P3 (which could be even more violent) don't rely on  them for short term signals.

81 from 76? Thanks for the heads up.  I'll have to get myself turned around and get ready for big gaps every morning again.  Wave A was a great primer for learning to deal with volatility.

Not sure of the question,  but don't try to get in front of it.  

got me!  Makes you wonder who has that much time on their hands.

Of all the charts that I look to when I'm betting that we are going down from here.  This is the one with the 5/3 stochastics ready to go positive that worries me the most.  But I'm hopeful that we hang along the bottom area for a while as we have done in the past.

I think I might have the explanation. The trix lags the price action which is what helps the smoothing out quality that  it has compared to the MACD, for example.  Your time frame on your chart is long. In other words, its sort of hard to tell the difference of a few days. There's nothing wrong with that. It still gives good info.  I also think that if you look at it a couple months from now the trix will appear to have crossed about right on time.  Assuming, of course, that it does cross.  Nice chart either way.

If you take a careful look back at other crosses you may be able to see that there was actually lags evident in some instances.  only worth what you paid for it though.

all the best

john

Steve the 5 possiblities was just an analogy of someone showing all the possibles without ever forming an opinion after looking at a lot of charts.  I simply don't want the opinions to leave.  Each trader can take what information they want.   But, when I look at a bunch of charts I get an opinion based on the overall picture and it might not always be right. That may not come through unless you say it.  I'm just saying continue to give it.

I understand what you are saying Dr. Mike and I agree that giving all the possibilities is a great thing to have.  

On the other hand, I would rather hear Matt and Steve's best opinion after looking at many more charts than I have time to do.  If I only hear 5 different possibilities on a recap then I am no more ahead than if I had thrown a dart.  

I would rather have Matt and Steve get it wrong occasionally (because thats what the market does) than never get an opinion.  If you can't use technical analysis to get any predictive value, why are we here? my worthless .02