Posted by jcomptonod on 15th of Nov 2009 at 09:52 pm
OK. I'm going to lay this out and maybe someone can tell me why
it's wrong, besides the fact that it's not a true zig -zag.
Minor detail.
But what stands out to me is how corrective the overall
pattern appears when you look at it as such.
I've been studying and applying Fib ratios with associated
trading much more frequently lately. To
begin this analysis, I used wave counts in GET to establish the
beginning of the cycle wave in '82. Obviously, if we are in
some much bigger mega-trend this doesn't account for it, but it
does appear to account for what we do have. Besides, my
eyes glaze over when E-waves go too far back in time and we
try to relate it to now. I always think what if they are only 10
years off in their count?
Anyway,
In a common zig zag corrective pattern, Segment B-C
corrects segment A-B usually less than a .618% We have
fulfilled that criteria.
In addition, segment B-C is fairly symmetrical in price size to
segment D-E. The market loves symmetry in connected moves. The
symmetry is demonstrated by the very closely equal blue
segments.
Also, It would be fairly common for segment D-E to retrace the
distance of a fib retrace/extension of 1.0 to 1.27 the distance of
segment C-D, originating from point D.
You see where this is going. If this apparent
corrective action has any merit then B could mark the top of wave
5, Point C completes wave A, Point D completes corrective wave B
and the pattern is complete at Point E, which is really completed
wave C.
So where would this leave us, if this scenario was correct?
Well the wave count correction would be complete. We
could then possibly be in wave 3 up now or possibly later waves of
primary one. OK, your turn. Why is it wrong?
Could a wave C not be so violent? Please feel free to refute
it. Are we possibly nearer a correction than a wave C or
Primary 3 down?
Posted by jcomptonod on 16th of Nov 2009 at 08:19 am
This pattern ('82 to 2009) has the look of a completed 5
(possibly 3) wave with an ABC correction . I doubt it fits in the
books this way because of the sort of flat type correction and my
knowledge of Ewave corrective patterns is very limited, but
the fib measurements sure smell of the same type of
corrective action as a common zig zag
correction.
If this were correct and it's a huge IF, the implications
of this would be that there is no big C wave to come or a primary 3
down. C already happened. We're onto a new pattern
possibly or maybe a big wave 5. Is it right? Who knows,
only time will show us that. But, it appears to be at least
something to consider to open your mind to other possibilities.
Why was I even looking at it? Because there are some
things in the market and some stocks that make me think that we may
be in store for a correction rather than a big down move. Of
course, we'll know a lot more as we tackle these huge
trendlines.
If nothing else, I think this shows that you have to open up
your thinking when you start using Ewave for longer term
projections. It seems to open up a lot of room for error.
We certainly had a clear 5 wave decline off the 2007 highs but
it's always troublesome to make longer term projections. We
will keep an open mind to whatever the technicals suggest.
Question Everything. Alternative view.
Posted by jcomptonod on 15th of Nov 2009 at 09:52 pm
OK. I'm going to lay this out and maybe someone can tell me why it's wrong, besides the fact that it's not a true zig -zag. Minor detail. But what stands out to me is how corrective the overall pattern appears when you look at it as such.
I've been studying and applying Fib ratios with associated trading much more frequently lately. To begin this analysis, I used wave counts in GET to establish the beginning of the cycle wave in '82. Obviously, if we are in some much bigger mega-trend this doesn't account for it, but it does appear to account for what we do have. Besides, my eyes glaze over when E-waves go too far back in time and we try to relate it to now. I always think what if they are only 10 years off in their count?
Anyway,
In a common zig zag corrective pattern, Segment B-C corrects segment A-B usually less than a .618% We have fulfilled that criteria.
In addition, segment B-C is fairly symmetrical in price size to segment D-E. The market loves symmetry in connected moves. The symmetry is demonstrated by the very closely equal blue segments.
Also, It would be fairly common for segment D-E to retrace the distance of a fib retrace/extension of 1.0 to 1.27 the distance of segment C-D, originating from point D.
You see where this is going. If this apparent corrective action has any merit then B could mark the top of wave 5, Point C completes wave A, Point D completes corrective wave B and the pattern is complete at Point E, which is really completed wave C.
So where would this leave us, if this scenario was correct? Well the wave count correction would be complete. We could then possibly be in wave 3 up now or possibly later waves of primary one. OK, your turn. Why is it wrong? Could a wave C not be so violent? Please feel free to refute it. Are we possibly nearer a correction than a wave C or Primary 3 down?
Simple Translation
Posted by jcomptonod on 16th of Nov 2009 at 08:19 am
This pattern ('82 to 2009) has the look of a completed 5 (possibly 3) wave with an ABC correction . I doubt it fits in the books this way because of the sort of flat type correction and my knowledge of Ewave corrective patterns is very limited, but the fib measurements sure smell of the same type of corrective action as a common zig zag correction.
If this were correct and it's a huge IF, the implications of this would be that there is no big C wave to come or a primary 3 down. C already happened. We're onto a new pattern possibly or maybe a big wave 5. Is it right? Who knows, only time will show us that. But, it appears to be at least something to consider to open your mind to other possibilities.
Why was I even looking at it? Because there are some things in the market and some stocks that make me think that we may be in store for a correction rather than a big down move. Of course, we'll know a lot more as we tackle these huge trendlines.
If nothing else, I think this shows that you have to open up your thinking when you start using Ewave for longer term projections. It seems to open up a lot of room for error.
We certainly had a clear
Posted by steve on 16th of Nov 2009 at 09:18 am
We certainly had a clear 5 wave decline off the 2007 highs but it's always troublesome to make longer term projections. We will keep an open mind to whatever the technicals suggest.
everyone looking for a big wave down
Posted by delane on 16th of Nov 2009 at 07:48 am
could it be we had our two wave down already? One in October one in march. Things happen much faster now with everything electronic
geeeez speak English will ya?
Posted by lpant on 16th of Nov 2009 at 12:26 am
LOL I'm a daytrader and sometime short term swing trader.....would you mind translating?
So true...once EW'ers get going...the
Posted by steveo on 16th of Nov 2009 at 05:01 am
So true...once EW'ers get going...the lingo gets deep quick.....