Posted by jcomptonod on 30th of Oct 2009 at 08:43 am
I understand what you are saying Dr. Mike and I agree that
giving all the possibilities is a great thing to have.
On the other hand, I would rather hear Matt and Steve's best
opinion after looking at many more charts than I have time to do.
If I only hear 5 different possibilities on a recap then I am
no more ahead than if I had thrown a dart.
I would rather have Matt and Steve get it wrong occasionally
(because thats what the market does) than never get an opinion.
If you can't use technical analysis to get any predictive
value, why are we here? my worthless .02
jcomptonod - we will certainly attempt to prioritize such
possibilities but it's better to know ahead of time what to look
for and react accordingly when it's not clear. I DID NOT
present five alternatives and I dare say those three scenarios gave
you much more insight than throwing a dart.
After Wednesday's close, I showed a bullish falling wedge on the
SPX and even CIRCLED the 1060 area (.382 retracement) as a target
area. That was a clear pattern that allowed for a stronger
bet (SPX 20 points in one day suffices).
Posted by jcomptonod on 30th of Oct 2009 at 09:21 am
Steve the 5 possiblities was just an analogy of someone showing
all the possibles without ever forming an opinion after looking at
a lot of charts. I simply don't want the opinions to leave.
Each trader can take what information they want. But,
when I look at a bunch of charts I get an opinion based on the
overall picture and it might not always be right. That may not come
through unless you say it. I'm just saying continue to give
it.
Posted by doctormike on 30th of Oct 2009 at 09:04 am
jcomptonod... Yes, it will be nice to hear the preferred count,
as long as all other counts are also discussed. The thing
that most of us missed was chart no. 17 on Wednesday's
analysis. Daily McClellan was extremely oversold and it was
at the lowest level since the March rally started. Matt spent
majority of the time on Wednesday's analysis to discuss the bearish
case and spent less than 5 seconds on that one chart. Of
course, that's what ended up happening on Thursday. With an
extremely oversold condition and a positive GDP number, boom....we
got a "rally", not a "bounce". Sure, hindsight is always
20/20, but like you said, that's why we subscribe to sites like
this so you don't have to "throw a dart".
You may want to ponder this chart about what such a low NAMO
reading is likely to represent over time. I will be watching
for DIVERGENCE to form as a better indication of a SUSTAINABLE
rally.
This chart was forwarded to me but it makes a valid point.
I understand what you are
Amazing newsletter last night, Steve
Posted by jcomptonod on 30th of Oct 2009 at 08:43 am
I understand what you are saying Dr. Mike and I agree that giving all the possibilities is a great thing to have.
On the other hand, I would rather hear Matt and Steve's best opinion after looking at many more charts than I have time to do. If I only hear 5 different possibilities on a recap then I am no more ahead than if I had thrown a dart.
I would rather have Matt and Steve get it wrong occasionally (because thats what the market does) than never get an opinion. If you can't use technical analysis to get any predictive value, why are we here? my worthless .02
jcomptonod - we will certainly
Posted by steve on 30th of Oct 2009 at 09:10 am
jcomptonod - we will certainly attempt to prioritize such possibilities but it's better to know ahead of time what to look for and react accordingly when it's not clear. I DID NOT present five alternatives and I dare say those three scenarios gave you much more insight than throwing a dart.
After Wednesday's close, I showed a bullish falling wedge on the SPX and even CIRCLED the 1060 area (.382 retracement) as a target area. That was a clear pattern that allowed for a stronger bet (SPX 20 points in one day suffices).
Steve the 5 possiblities was
Posted by jcomptonod on 30th of Oct 2009 at 09:21 am
Steve the 5 possiblities was just an analogy of someone showing all the possibles without ever forming an opinion after looking at a lot of charts. I simply don't want the opinions to leave. Each trader can take what information they want. But, when I look at a bunch of charts I get an opinion based on the overall picture and it might not always be right. That may not come through unless you say it. I'm just saying continue to give it.
jcomptonod... Yes, it will be
Posted by doctormike on 30th of Oct 2009 at 09:04 am
jcomptonod... Yes, it will be nice to hear the preferred count, as long as all other counts are also discussed. The thing that most of us missed was chart no. 17 on Wednesday's analysis. Daily McClellan was extremely oversold and it was at the lowest level since the March rally started. Matt spent majority of the time on Wednesday's analysis to discuss the bearish case and spent less than 5 seconds on that one chart. Of course, that's what ended up happening on Thursday. With an extremely oversold condition and a positive GDP number, boom....we got a "rally", not a "bounce". Sure, hindsight is always 20/20, but like you said, that's why we subscribe to sites like this so you don't have to "throw a dart".
NAMO - One Chart to Analyze
Posted by steve on 30th of Oct 2009 at 09:22 am
You may want to ponder this chart about what such a low NAMO reading is likely to represent over time. I will be watching for DIVERGENCE to form as a better indication of a SUSTAINABLE rally.
This chart was forwarded to me but it makes a valid point.
After looking at the daily
Posted by doctormike on 30th of Oct 2009 at 09:15 am
After looking at the daily McClellan, I found an interesting observation.
10/28/09 McClellan -336.21
02/23/09 McClellan -359.34
11/20/08 McClellan -312.62
What happened on 02/24/09 and 11/21/08?
02/24/09 S&P rallied 3.82%
11/21/08 S&P rallied 5.84%
What happened on 10/29/09?
10/29/09 S&P rallied 1.9% - the biggest "rally" percentage wise since early July.