NFLX - Chart Link- nice follow through

AAPL - Chart Link- testing top of that wedge-like trendline

bull -  saw your message: I can't tell you if this is some new bull market - I tend not to favor that, but the trend is up and has been up since Oct when we favored a trade low in the market because of 5 waves completed to the downside, playing long side has been the place to be and continues to be.

last year energy lead the market, as well as big old economy stocks like the the Dow and VYM, while big cap tech and QQQ's were down the most - this year things are the complete opposite: energy and Dow is the weakest while big cap tech, especially the magnificent 7 or magic 8 ball 8 are the strongest. 

My target area on the SPX has been 4325 - 4400 since the Oct lows of last year and so that that continues to play out. 

Not surprised that QQQ's lead this year after lagging the worst last year - but I'm not perfect I didn't go super aggressive long that area like in hindsight we all should have.

Currently AI is the big thing/hope, the Jesus moment for the market - I think it will have profound effects on everything. That said, is it enough to take the whole market to new all time highs now? or do we still have one more big dumpola later this year early Fall, which has been our prognostication guesses for a long time. 

You could use the KISS charts to keep you invested in some of these names (if you have them (most have some of these at least such as AAPL etc, if one is long some of these magic 8 ball stocks already, one option is to just stay long and manage them with our KISS systems stops. If they carry the market to a new all time high and a new bull market - well they'll keep you in. But if the music stops later on, they give you a chair to sit in (like a game of musical chairs).

The QQQ and SPX have been long, the QQQ's since early March - those are some indexes one could have been long in their longer term 401K type accounts as well

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1IvnRa4hRYPPYwdyWNcoYO_PS2cV7uo3OlrHnUTp-kT8/edit#gid=0 

Yes those of us who have been around long enough know that the market is nutty right now, and clearly this AI even just recently kicked off hard again by NVDA, it jumped started the market again.

things are nutty, but they can get nuttier and stay that way for a while. Steve will tell you that when he was a broker, back in early 99 one of this clients knew that the market was overvalued and started shorting - he was correct with his assessment was correct, but his timing was too early and he lost his ass - being right but too early

that's what's nice about these KISS systems - again if you are not along any of those KISS fang names already, you can't chaise it here and that doesn't help - but most traders do own some of these already like AAPL, many open NVDA and MSFT, META, AMD , and of course index ETF's like QQQ, SPY etc. What's nice is that if the STS stops allow you to stay long for as long as the insanity lasts. So if the market goes up for another 3 months, so be it, the systems will raise the STS stops up along with it. And if the market decided to a do a rug pull - you have stop protection in - no need to guess when the insanity is going to end - if you are already long some of these names in an IRA account or whatever, just keep em ad continue to checks the KISS tables for not stops

showing new STS stops on QQQ, GOOGL, AAPL, AVGO, MSFT, AMD, META

new STS stops for AVGO, AAPL, AMD

Not bad 

- 13.6% gain on QQQ's since entry
- 28.9% on MSFT
- 22.6% AAPL
- 124.7% NVDA
- 115.8% META
- 43.9% AVGO

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1IvnRa4hRYPPYwdyWNcoYO_PS2cV7uo3OlrHnUTp-kT8/edit#gid=2125785740 

the FANG KISS List LOl

NVDA STS jumped from 288 to 344, new one on QQQ, and AMD, and AVGO

regarding the market where only about 5 - 10 names control everything, I'm going to add another basket to the KISS section with just those FANG like names NVDA, AAPL, MSFT, META etc, 

going to add a table to the spreadsheet as well - I mean why not

https://breakpointtrades.com/ts/sts.php?chart_group=BPT_basket 

I'll post it once I've added it: Note: I'm only able to add to the Google spreadsheet - I'll have to wait for James to get back into town in order to add the table to the STS webpage. James is out until Monday

again al those big cap tech stocks are already in the STS tables under NDX 100  and SPX 500, but I think they deserve their own table now given the state of things

yeah - so here's an image to illustrate the few holding everything up - this used to be AAPL - again gotta be careful posting this because in this woke world where everyone is overly offended about everything, still kind of funny image LOL

AMZN - Chart Link- been up all day, bounced off the 9 EMA

NFLX - Chart Link- been up

AAPL - Chart Link- down but testing trendline

again the big stocks mostly holding up - image what would happen if they crash LOL

NVDA reporting tonight

AVGO - Chart Link up on the deal with AAPL for chips made in US, but man the stock has been strong, look at that weekly

AVGO - Chart Link

new STS stops on various things, not on the indexes however. 

man some of these like META (been long since Nov, and MSFT, AAPL etc

LOL - exactly.  AAPL needs its own index/exchange I guess

remember AAPL technically made that slight new high for a possible completed 5th, that's all it needed

update on these: yesterday the AMZN system went short, use the VXAZN for the volatility signal.
GS still long, AAPL, still short, QQQ still short

again I'm not providing signals to these yet, someone asked what they were doing so there you go

AAPL - Chart Link- great chart by Steve early in the week where he labeled that - never made a high for that 5th wave, and on today's weakness both AAPL and MSFT had bids - this still looks like it wants that 5th wave high

AAPL - Chart Link- here's a 2hr with target

updating you on these test daily volatility systems: currently two of them are short (QQQ from a couple days ago and AAPL yesterday while GS is long - honestly pretty hedged there and mostly on the short side at moment 

doing some more work on these volatility systems, would have 12 systems here - if there's not much overlap, which doesn't look like there is, could be a nice basket

again the systems are very simple just like the VIX /BB system these use the volatility index for the respective instruments getting signals when these close back inside their bands and price has a reversion to mean movement back over a short term MA

- volatility system for SPY using VIX
-volatility system for QQQ using VXN
- volatility system for IWM using RVX
- volatility system for DIA  using VXD
- volatility system for EEM using VXEEM
- volatility system for USO crude oil using OVX
- volatility system for GLD using GVX
- volatility system for AAPL using VXAPL
- volatility system for AMZ using VXAZN
- volatility system for GOOG using VXGOOG
- volatility system for GS using VXGS
- volatility system for IWM using VIBM

that was the point - the was 3 clear waves down - that could have been in the midst of a bearish wave 3 or completed an ABC move (as price was at a double bottom). That's why he focused on this chart said it's likely to gap and go down confirming a wave 3 or gap up to confirm the simple 3 wave ABC and go up

you don't have to know which way the market is going to go to make money - the important thing is to identify important areas of inflection and have a plan and execute on it - and not blame others or get emotional about it. 

see the image - that was a big inflation point - folks trading the indexes would have had a plan coming into Friday to react depending on the direction that broke. you can see the clear 3 waves down, was either going to turn into a bearish wave 3 down or complete that pullback and rally hard as a simple ABC - you don't have to know which way it will go, just react to price. However with AAPL's reaction one could have favored the simple ABC but still it didn't matter