As you know the mean reversion systems have been very quiet,
which is logical given the straight up move the market over the
last couple months with really no pullbacks.
That said unfortunately my focus has been on these KISS systems
and when I finally looked at these mean reversion systems this
evening, several of them triggered. I apologized for not seeing
these until now. I may issue official trade alerts in
the morning, so I'm giving you a heads up
SPY systems: Two subsystems triggered: Trend Pullback 1st entry, and QE
swing 3 momo 1st entry
ES systems: 3 sub systems triggered: Trend Pullback, Trend MOMO, and
Strap
The MOMO system tend to be very short term only triggering on
shallow pullbacks when the 60 length Stochastic is still above 80%
while a faster indicator is oversold.
My plan is to issue these trades tomorrow, but unfortunately we
have the Jobs numbers and thus we could see a gap either way.
Because the momo trades are very short term and because we
missed the entry I may not issue those.
Tomorrow if the market is down, then entries are easy. But if we
see a big gap up, it's tough to chase.
I may issue trade notifications for these early Friday morning
and I'm giving you a heads up now. If you are one who trades ES/MES
futures you could obviously enter them at any time as they trade
all night
$COMPQ - Chart Link- As I mentioned this
morning the NYMO after divergering with the SPX for 2 months went
below the zero line yesterday. As Tom McClellan states the
divergence is the signal (but not the trigger), the trigger is
closing below zero. While not perfect, when I looked at the past 5
years it's been a pretty good signal. In very strong trends what
can happen is it dip below zero then go back up, which you need a
stop basically
$SPX - Chart Link- here's another 60 min chart
as Steve just posted one
the largest pullback in the uptrend has been 80 points, with
today's move the SPX was down 62 points off the lows, so no break
in symmetry yet with respect to the late October lows
Exhaustion short no - it triggers off the highs. Sometimes those
exhaustion shorts can be great shorts picking a decent high,
HOWEVER most of the time you just get a mean reversion pullback in
the uptrend and if you wait for a reversal trigger you give up too
much waiting for the reversal confirmation. But again, a lot of
things have to line up for that condition to trigger such as like
> 30 consecutive days above a short term MA, and RSI >
a certain level, and %R in the upper 90's etc
yes it's been building - like I said, the VIX is getting reaedy
for some kind of pop either way with those pinching bollinger bands
on the daily
and as I stated on the weekend the pop could go in a variety of
ones. One would be just a straight up reversal and strong up
day.
another possiblity would be a fakeout bull trap where the VIX
pops hard to the downside for a couple days, then reverses hard -
I've seen that many time before when the Bollinger Bands are
pinching - there's a quick head fake drop then reversal
we'll see.. Nothing changed with the trend yet, but definteily
something to monitor
the end of bull cycle on the QQQ 1/2 day chart is
notable.
that is a good example of the cycle indicator and how it
corresponds to Elliot Wave: When price broke through the resistance
cycle in early Nov, that signaled a wave 3 trending move. The
sideways consolidation resulted in a support cycle, which was wave
4, and this end of bull cycle is postulating that this move was a
wave 5. Again these don't always play out but it is something
to note, and there is pretty strong MACD divergence on the 1/2 day
QQQ
also, per my discussion in last night's video on the cycles -
PLAYED OUT PERFECTLY
I discussed SPX and QQQ ping ponging between the support and
resistance cycles almost perfectly on the 78 min time frames, I
stated once price breaks through one of those cycles (instead of
reversing at one) that would signal a breakout and trending wave 3
- got that perfectly today.
and why was the move so strong? Well as I stated, when you
finally break that cycle, it signals a wave 3 trending move and
wave 3's are the strongest waves, hense massive rally today
by the way, I bought this on Tuesday on the slight break, the
stock then went back below the trendline and I was a bit under
water. But...I"m always telling you guys if you are trying to swing
something, you can't be stopping out on noise - I place a stop
around the 20 SMA initially so I staye din, nice pop now and I can
either decide to trim some of the position up or not
anyway so far no break in symmetry yet. The largest pullback in
the VERY strong uptrend from the Oct lows was 49.5 points. So far
today at today's lows the SPX has pulled back 47.4 points
scooter- no one right or wrong answer there. Every trader
should develop his/her own systematic style and use whatever
indicators/settings they find works for their strategy and plan
that said: on daily charts, we use the 9 EMA (sometimes the 5
EMA as well for strong trends), the 20, 50, 200 SMA
on intra day charts I generally just use EMA's: 9, 20,
50.
on 1 min chart I like the 200 SMA
for the MA ribbons besides the BPT MA Deluxe I use (9, 20, 34,
50 EMA's) or (5, 11, 19, 28 EMA's for a tigher ribbon)
XBI - Chart Link- with that symmetry break on
the last rally (largest rally in the downtrend from the June highs,
odds favor some sort of higher low. Now, you don't have a break in
structure, just a symmetry break
Trigger could be over today's doji with stop at the low of the
doji
yep nothing trends in one direction, I took nice profits on my
TMF and TLT call options last Friday, that said favoring lower high
so will look for a 3 wave pullback/structure on an intra day time
frame and trigger
the 2hr had a Demark 9 on Friday spiking out side those
channels on the 2hr and 1hr time frames. On the 15 min we have a
Demark 9 now
mean reversion systems
Posted by matt on 4th of Jan 2024 at 11:04 pm
As you know the mean reversion systems have been very quiet, which is logical given the straight up move the market over the last couple months with really no pullbacks.
That said unfortunately my focus has been on these KISS systems and when I finally looked at these mean reversion systems this evening, several of them triggered. I apologized for not seeing these until now. I may issue official trade alerts in the morning, so I'm giving you a heads up
SPY systems:
Two subsystems triggered: Trend Pullback 1st entry, and QE swing 3 momo 1st entry
ES systems:
3 sub systems triggered: Trend Pullback, Trend MOMO, and Strap
The MOMO system tend to be very short term only triggering on shallow pullbacks when the 60 length Stochastic is still above 80% while a faster indicator is oversold.
My plan is to issue these trades tomorrow, but unfortunately we have the Jobs numbers and thus we could see a gap either way. Because the momo trades are very short term and because we missed the entry I may not issue those.
Tomorrow if the market is down, then entries are easy. But if we see a big gap up, it's tough to chase.
I may issue trade notifications for these early Friday morning and I'm giving you a heads up now. If you are one who trades ES/MES futures you could obviously enter them at any time as they trade all night
NYMO below zero line yesterday
Posted by matt on 3rd of Jan 2024 at 03:53 pm
$COMPQ - Chart Link- As I mentioned this morning the NYMO after divergering with the SPX for 2 months went below the zero line yesterday. As Tom McClellan states the divergence is the signal (but not the trigger), the trigger is closing below zero. While not perfect, when I looked at the past 5 years it's been a pretty good signal. In very strong trends what can happen is it dip below zero then go back up, which you need a stop basically
here's the Twitter post from Tom McClellan
https://twitter.com/McClellanOsc/status/1742360892334076086
SPX 60 min no symmetry break yet
Posted by matt on 2nd of Jan 2024 at 11:12 am
$SPX - Chart Link- here's another 60 min chart as Steve just posted one
the largest pullback in the uptrend has been 80 points, with today's move the SPX was down 62 points off the lows, so no break in symmetry yet with respect to the late October lows
HE comments
Posted by matt on 2nd of Jan 2024 at 09:52 am
HE - Chart Link- been on the watchlist for over a week, it's showing relative strength today. Still below the base trendline but an up day so far
Exhaustion short no - it
GOOGL--diamond- whichway ?--- forgive my poor artwork
Posted by matt on 19th of Dec 2023 at 04:35 pm
Exhaustion short no - it triggers off the highs. Sometimes those exhaustion shorts can be great shorts picking a decent high, HOWEVER most of the time you just get a mean reversion pullback in the uptrend and if you wait for a reversal trigger you give up too much waiting for the reversal confirmation. But again, a lot of things have to line up for that condition to trigger such as like > 30 consecutive days above a short term MA, and RSI > a certain level, and %R in the upper 90's etc
yes it's been building -
$VIX has gone quite uncorrelated this morning. As Matt has ...
Posted by matt on 18th of Dec 2023 at 10:30 am
yes it's been building - like I said, the VIX is getting reaedy for some kind of pop either way with those pinching bollinger bands on the daily
and as I stated on the weekend the pop could go in a variety of ones. One would be just a straight up reversal and strong up day.
another possiblity would be a fakeout bull trap where the VIX pops hard to the downside for a couple days, then reverses hard - I've seen that many time before when the Bollinger Bands are pinching - there's a quick head fake drop then reversal
we'll see.. Nothing changed with the trend yet, but definteily something to monitor
the end of bull cycle
Posted by matt on 15th of Dec 2023 at 10:59 pm
the end of bull cycle on the QQQ 1/2 day chart is notable.
that is a good example of the cycle indicator and how it corresponds to Elliot Wave: When price broke through the resistance cycle in early Nov, that signaled a wave 3 trending move. The sideways consolidation resulted in a support cycle, which was wave 4, and this end of bull cycle is postulating that this move was a wave 5. Again these don't always play out but it is something to note, and there is pretty strong MACD divergence on the 1/2 day QQQ
Trade setups and observations
Posted by matt on 15th of Dec 2023 at 03:43 pm
AVGO - Chart Link- following through
NRDS - Chart Link- following through
FSR - Chart Link- oversold setup, stalling some at that trendline, have to wait for next week to see action
APO - Chart Link- breakout idea is retrying. At this point I'd place a stop at yesterday's lows
AMTX - Chart Link- followed through in the morning, then reversed, I got trapped. But holding the position as price is holding that trendline for now
MAXN - Chart Link- poped some
KGC follow up
Posted by matt on 14th of Dec 2023 at 10:24 am
KGC - Chart Link- nice pop, best to have bought it yesterday though
only me posting today. Are you guys shell shocked after yesterday's move? Or fat and complacent with the market just uptrending along LOL
also, per my discussion in
KISS SPX, QQQ nice bump up in the STS stops
Posted by matt on 13th of Dec 2023 at 05:12 pm
also, per my discussion in last night's video on the cycles - PLAYED OUT PERFECTLY
I discussed SPX and QQQ ping ponging between the support and resistance cycles almost perfectly on the 78 min time frames, I stated once price breaks through one of those cycles (instead of reversing at one) that would signal a breakout and trending wave 3 - got that perfectly today.
and why was the move so strong? Well as I stated, when you finally break that cycle, it signals a wave 3 trending move and wave 3's are the strongest waves, hense massive rally today
AMRX follow up
Posted by matt on 8th of Dec 2023 at 09:47 am
AMRX - Chart Link- idea from Monday, broke out nicely
by the way, I bought this on Tuesday on the slight break, the stock then went back below the trendline and I was a bit under water. But...I"m always telling you guys if you are trying to swing something, you can't be stopping out on noise - I place a stop around the 20 SMA initially so I staye din, nice pop now and I can either decide to trim some of the position up or not
SPX Symmetry not yet broken
Posted by matt on 30th of Nov 2023 at 12:10 pm
$SPX - Chart Link- here's my 60 min chart showing all those gaps
anyway so far no break in symmetry yet. The largest pullback in the VERY strong uptrend from the Oct lows was 49.5 points. So far today at today's lows the SPX has pulled back 47.4 points
Update: CKPT NICE!
CKPT NICE!
Posted by matt on 30th of Nov 2023 at 11:12 am
CKPT - Chart Link- trail stops up folks and lock in some profits!
I almost sold this yesterday to raise more cash, glad I didn't. When you have a trend, stick with it
SEER
Posted by matt on 24th of Nov 2023 at 10:24 am
SEER - Chart Link- been sitting in this one the last couple days, finally popping some off that trendline retest
scooter- no one right or
I'm confused. How do you decide when to use the ...
Posted by matt on 20th of Nov 2023 at 10:43 am
scooter- no one right or wrong answer there. Every trader should develop his/her own systematic style and use whatever indicators/settings they find works for their strategy and plan
that said: on daily charts, we use the 9 EMA (sometimes the 5 EMA as well for strong trends), the 20, 50, 200 SMA
on intra day charts I generally just use EMA's: 9, 20, 50.
on 1 min chart I like the 200 SMA
for the MA ribbons besides the BPT MA Deluxe I use (9, 20, 34, 50 EMA's) or (5, 11, 19, 28 EMA's for a tigher ribbon)
XBI sym break
Posted by matt on 13th of Nov 2023 at 03:39 pm
XBI - Chart Link- with that symmetry break on the last rally (largest rally in the downtrend from the June highs, odds favor some sort of higher low. Now, you don't have a break in structure, just a symmetry break
Trigger could be over today's doji with stop at the low of the doji
MASI follow up
Posted by matt on 9th of Nov 2023 at 03:12 pm
MASI - Chart Link- nice looking long idea from last night, bucking the trend today
follow up on my trade ideas from previous week
Posted by matt on 6th of Nov 2023 at 12:41 pm
RPTX - Chart Link- I took profits this morning when it tagged that 20 MA, was a mean reversion set up, got the move, so got out
IGMS - Chart Link- nice follow through on this bottoming play from last week
AJG - Chart Link- followed through some
DGX - Chart Link- I'm no longer in this one, now above the 200 MA
GDHG - Chart Link- still hanging in there, I'm long gone
RRC - Chart Link- This gave a great trend and puked today - Hint: Friday's doji low was a good place for a stop
RRC - Chart Link-
yep nothing trends in one
TLT lod
Posted by matt on 6th of Nov 2023 at 10:32 am
yep nothing trends in one direction, I took nice profits on my TMF and TLT call options last Friday, that said favoring lower high so will look for a 3 wave pullback/structure on an intra day time frame and trigger
the 2hr had a Demark 9 on Friday spiking out side those channels on the 2hr and 1hr time frames. On the 15 min we have a Demark 9 now
IWM comments
Posted by matt on 3rd of Nov 2023 at 10:18 am
IWM - Chart Link- almot tagged the 50 day MA, gapped over that trendline, basically bounced off that supply zone
IWM - Chart Link-