Good morning everyone and happy Friday. Last night I sent out an email regarding the SPY/ES mean reversion systems, several which went long yesterday but I did not see that until well after the close. This morning ES futures are down 15 points, thus prices are at better prices than the system. For SPY 2 sub systems took a 1st entry long and for MES 3 sub systems took a 1st entry long.  

Trades issued for the website:

SPY: 1 st entry long for Trend/Pullback - I"m taking a trade here in pre market. 

MES:  1st entry MES for Trend/Pullback, and Strap  - entering here in pre market

JOBS DATA here in a few minutes,  I'm entering the trades here or you can wait to see the impact of the Jobs Report, which could send prices higher or lower - it's a crap shoot so you can chose to enter now or wait

I will add these trades to the SPY/ES mean reversion systems section on the website later this morning

As you know the mean reversion systems have been very quiet, which is logical given the straight up move the market over the last couple months with really no pullbacks.

That said unfortunately my focus has been on these KISS systems and when I finally looked at these mean reversion systems this evening, several of them triggered. I apologized for not seeing these until  now.  I may issue official trade alerts in the morning, so I'm giving you a heads up

SPY systems:  
Two subsystems triggered: Trend Pullback 1st entry, and QE swing 3 momo 1st entry

ES systems:
3 sub systems triggered: Trend Pullback, Trend MOMO, and Strap

The MOMO system tend to be very short term only triggering on shallow pullbacks when the 60 length Stochastic is still above 80% while a faster indicator is oversold. 

My plan is to issue these trades tomorrow, but unfortunately we have the Jobs numbers and thus we could see a gap either way.  Because the momo trades are very short term and because we missed the entry I may not issue those. 

Tomorrow if the market is down, then entries are easy. But if we see a big gap up, it's tough to chase.

I may issue trade notifications for these early Friday morning and I'm giving you a heads up now. If you are one who trades ES/MES futures you could obviously enter them at any time as they trade all night

$COMPQ - Chart Link- As I mentioned this morning the NYMO after divergering with the SPX for 2 months went below the zero line yesterday. As Tom McClellan states the divergence is the signal (but not the trigger), the trigger is closing below zero. While not perfect, when I looked at the past 5 years it's been a pretty good signal. In very strong trends what can happen is it dip below zero then go back up, which you need a stop basically

here's the Twitter post from Tom McClellan

https://twitter.com/McClellanOsc/status/1742360892334076086 

$SPX - Chart Link- here's another 60 min chart as Steve just posted one

the largest pullback in the uptrend has been 80 points, with today's move the SPX was down 62 points off the lows, so no break in symmetry yet with respect to the late October lows

HE - Chart Link- been on the watchlist for over a week, it's showing relative strength today. Still below the base trendline but an up day so far

Exhaustion short no - it triggers off the highs. Sometimes those exhaustion shorts can be great shorts picking a decent high, HOWEVER most of the time you just get a mean reversion pullback in the uptrend and if you wait for a reversal trigger you give up too much waiting for the reversal confirmation. But again, a lot of things have to line up for that condition to trigger such as like > 30  consecutive days above a short term MA, and RSI > a certain level, and %R in the upper 90's etc

yes it's been building - like I said, the VIX is getting reaedy for some kind of pop either way with those pinching bollinger bands on the daily

and as I stated on the weekend the pop could go in a variety of ones. One would be just a straight up reversal and strong up day. 

another possiblity would be a fakeout bull trap where the VIX pops hard to the downside for a couple days, then reverses hard - I've seen that many time before when the Bollinger Bands are pinching - there's a quick head fake drop then reversal

we'll see.. Nothing changed with the trend yet, but definteily something to monitor

the end of bull cycle on the QQQ 1/2 day chart is notable. 

that is a good example of the cycle indicator and how it corresponds to Elliot Wave: When price broke through the resistance cycle in early Nov, that signaled a wave 3 trending move. The sideways consolidation resulted in a support cycle, which was wave 4, and this end of bull cycle is postulating that this move was a wave 5.  Again these don't always play out but it is something to note, and there is pretty strong MACD divergence on the 1/2 day QQQ

AVGO - Chart Link- following through

NRDS - Chart Link- following through

FSR - Chart Link- oversold setup, stalling some at that trendline, have to wait for next week to see action

APO - Chart Link- breakout idea is retrying. At this point I'd place a stop at yesterday's lows

AMTX - Chart Link- followed through in the morning, then reversed, I got trapped. But holding the position as price is holding that trendline for now

MAXN - Chart Link- poped some

KGC - Chart Link- nice pop, best to have bought it yesterday though

only me posting today. Are you guys shell shocked after yesterday's move? Or fat and complacent with the market just uptrending along LOL

also, per my discussion in last night's video on the cycles - PLAYED OUT PERFECTLY

I discussed SPX and QQQ ping ponging between the support and resistance cycles almost perfectly on the 78 min time frames, I stated once price breaks through one of those cycles (instead of reversing at one) that would signal a breakout and trending wave 3 - got that perfectly today.

and why was the move so strong? Well as I stated, when you finally break that cycle, it signals a wave 3 trending move and wave 3's are the strongest waves, hense massive rally today

AMRX - Chart Link- idea from Monday, broke out nicely

by the way, I bought this on Tuesday on the slight break, the stock then went back below the trendline and I was a bit under water. But...I"m always telling you guys if you are trying to swing something, you can't be stopping out on noise - I place a stop around the 20 SMA initially so I staye din, nice pop now and I can either decide to trim some of the position up or not

$SPX - Chart Link- here's my 60 min chart showing all those gaps

anyway so far no break in symmetry yet. The largest pullback in the VERY strong uptrend from the Oct lows was 49.5 points. So far today at today's lows the SPX has pulled back 47.4 points

CKPT - Chart Link- trail stops up folks and lock in some profits!

I almost sold this yesterday to raise more cash, glad I didn't. When you have a trend, stick with it

SEER - Chart Link- been sitting in this one the last couple days, finally popping some off that trendline retest

scooter- no one right or wrong answer there. Every trader should develop his/her own systematic style and use whatever indicators/settings they find works for their strategy and plan

that said: on daily charts, we use the 9 EMA (sometimes the 5 EMA as well for strong trends), the 20, 50, 200 SMA

on intra day charts I generally just use EMA's: 9, 20, 50. 

on 1 min chart I like the 200 SMA

for the MA ribbons besides the BPT MA Deluxe I use (9, 20, 34, 50 EMA's) or (5, 11, 19, 28 EMA's for a tigher ribbon)

XBI - Chart Link- with that symmetry break on the last rally (largest rally in the downtrend from the June highs, odds favor some sort of higher low. Now, you don't have a break in structure, just a symmetry break

Trigger could be over today's doji with stop at the low of the doji

MASI - Chart Link- nice looking long idea from last night, bucking the trend today

RPTX - Chart Link- I took profits this morning when it tagged that 20 MA, was a mean reversion set up, got the move, so got out

IGMS - Chart Link- nice follow through on this bottoming play from last week

AJG - Chart Link- followed through some

DGX - Chart Link- I'm no longer in this one, now above the 200 MA

GDHG - Chart Link- still hanging in there, I'm long gone

RRC - Chart Link- This gave a great trend and puked today - Hint: Friday's doji low was a good place for a stop

RRC - Chart Link-

yep nothing trends in one direction, I took nice profits on my TMF and TLT call options last Friday, that said favoring lower high so will look for a 3 wave pullback/structure on an intra day time frame and trigger

the 2hr had a Demark 9 on Friday spiking  out side those channels on the 2hr and 1hr time frames. On the 15 min we have a Demark 9 now