None of the SPY systems closed out, however the ES systems closed out

Mean Reversion SPY and ES systems:

- ES QE MOMO closed out, basically a flat trade
- ES Strap closed out, tiny gain
- ES Trend/Pullback, closed out 1/2, still has 1/2 open

- SPY QE MOMO still long

Volatility Systems:
- QQQ Still long
- EEM Still long
- AAPL closed out 1/2 (though I think one could stay long with a simple stop at Friday's lows at 176.55

Good morning, here's a quick update on the mean reversion systems for the open SPY and ES, and the volatility systems

A lot may close out today should the market close well:

Volatility systems:
EEM looking to close out, AAPL and QQQ still holding

SPY and ES mean reversion systems:
All the open systems are looking to exit: QE MOMO, Trend/Pullback, Strap. I have not decided yet, I may elect to keep 1/2 of the Trend/Pullback with a stop

the attached table has an arrow next to the systems looking to exit. The second chart shows all the open systems charts

AAPL - Chart Link today's move broke uptrend symmetry from the January lows, and notice how the morning bounce stalled EXACTLY at the 50 day MA turned resistance. The symmetry break sets the stage for the next rally to form a lower high

SOXS - Chart Link- opened on top of that wedge trendline yesterday and held it, attempting to bounce off it today

The Trend/Pullback will be taking a 1st entry on MES at the 5 pm close. We had a fist entry yesterday via the QE momo for SPY and ES. Here's an easy visual table for that

the attached images show the systems and the volatility systems (both GS and EEM went long)

Mean reversion systems:  For SPY I don't see anything else triggering. For ES I'm seeing that the Trend/pullback system may trigger a 1st entry today, that would be 2 sub systems

Also, regarding the volatilty systems, EEM and GS may trigger long

Yes that GOOGL short worked - I closed yesterday but I kept mine, closed today

The other  short was EEM - that played out very well

I haven't tested the trend hold on those yet, once I do it's possible that the might have stayed short

yeah generally. 

also - the gap up trend days are almost always the same, but sell off's are a different beast (remember emotion is different on sell offs vs rallies) 

again I would monitor that intra day symmetry: 11.6 points on SPX cash. monitor for things like a wedge etc, and yes many times if you do get an market low it occurs sometimes mid day, then you get a break in symmetry. it's only 11:30 CST so it might be a bit early yet. Again you either get a mid day low, or price tends up mostly trending down the whole day into the close

thank god I bought some DUST yesterday in after hrs for a hedge against my GDX position. 

that's the problem with the pm sector, it's one of the hardest sectors to trade, Steve will confirm as well - it doesn't trend easily like other sectors etc

Please remember those alerts ae really just alarms - they are not direct buy and sell triggers sent by Steve and myself. It's the exact same thing is if you had a list of 10 trade ideas that you placed into a quote screen to monitor at your broker, and you set alerts at various prices, such as near the highs or where you see a trendline that you think is important - the alerts are to 'alert' you that price is nearing that are you identified as important - and is a trigger for you to go and look at the chart and and price action and see if it looks good to buy.  Quotes here are delayed by 15 to 20 min, as I always say, those alerts on the website alarms should not be a substitute for you setting alarms on your own quote list - I do this every day in IB and Trading View - I add our trade ideas and set audio alerts to go off when they are hit so I can be alerted to go look at the chart. 

DVN and VET look fine technically - most trade ideas are placed here with a swing trade approach of several days to several weeks or longer and you have to decide what time frame you wish to trade those; swing or shorter term, and if swing the stops need to be wide enough to account for noise  CAVA was a monster and had a much better pattern than VET or DVN as it was a nice coil. BTBT, DADA, EYPT and NKLA and GRFS were nice momo plays. NINE has a nice chart. Most people here can't or shouldn't attempt to play all the ideas - best to focus on 2 or 3, pick your favorites and go with those. My favorite setups are the coils and flags

the vast majority of our trade ideas end up playing out, I don't have stats, but I'd say 7 or 8 out of 10 most of the time have produced nice swings. 

For you and others when trading the watchlist - the most successful members spend 10 - 20 min at night doing prepwork homework on the setups by placing the symbols in their broker quote list and setting their own alarms (that are real time) vs waiting for an alarm on the website to trigger that is from delayed quotes, and also good to have a trading notebook on your desk and write down the setups you like with levels, and a plan for the next day - that gives you the most chances of success at this.  Folks who don't do some 10/15 min of prep time at night or pre market - and come in during the day and randomly see an alert go off on  couple of the setups, without that prep work those individuals will be less successful.   The most successful traders do their prep work at night or early morning and have a notebook with some written notes of the setups they like coming into that day and also some market comments

remember topping is a process and sometimes a long one at that. The emotion/psychology is different during rallies vs sell offs -greed vs fear manisfest themselves differently. Sell offs tend to be sharp and over quickly, not trending for long periods of time, unlike topping where you get months and months of trends and dips being bought.

topping is a process and generally you need sideways movement, breaks in uptrend symmetry, and lower highs in order to flatten out the slope of the moving averages, such as the 20, 50 etc. 

Steve and I learned a long time ago - when the MA's have strong positive slopes, and price is above the 9 EMA's, if you happen to catch an index short (it's best to lock those gains in quickly once a nice pullback (like yesterday occurs) vs thinking to yourself 'I caught the top with a great price, I'm just going to hold it), 9 times out of 10 you will just give back all the profits or even take a loss. Shorts are for hedges. Only after a break in symmetry and lower high, with some flattening of the MA's, then you can give that short more room

XP - Chart Link- was no reason to sell this the last couple days, pattern was fine despite trying to breakout a couple days ago and pulling back inside, up today bounced off the trendline

GOOGL, which went long on 7/11/23, exited the rest of it's trend hold this morning. 

again this wasn't a website trade and not sent out, but I bring this up for an example of how some of these trades will work. 

I added a trend hold condition to the systems (have not added it to all systems yet) when this activates instead of exiting the entire position, it will exit 1/2 and keep 1/2 to to trend hold condition. However, when stocks are in a trend hold condition, instead of exiting at the close - longs like this stop out if price dips below the low of the previous candle, which is why the last piece of the position exited this morning because it dipped below yesterday's candle - quite a tight trailing stop basically

again don't asking me for settings on the systems, I keep getting that question, 

side note looks like IBM may go long but again long way from the close

DIS - Chart Link- after yesterday's drubbing, the woke mouse bounced off that lower trnedline

GDX - Chart Link- testing the trendline and 20 day MA, we had a buy signal last week via the RSI trendline break retest and the KISS system

GDXJ - Chart Link-

AU - Chart Link-

MUX - Chart Link-

PAAS - Chart Link-

GDX - Chart Link- nice rebound of course in this sector

the positive I saw on Friday is that the RSI 14 broke its trendline and backtested it as support. 

I commented above, we had 3 waves up, see 60 min SPX from one of my lasts posts. Looks more like that was a simple abck to resistance, probably the wave B with the sell off from Thrusday being a wave A, and down in C next week, unless it can form a hgher low here

as far as waves - you guys sometimes make it over complicated. counttrend moves are aways 3 waves or more complext. 

and nearly always you have a couple different wave counts/scenarios - but too many folks look at that and just give up.

What I like is when both the bearish and bullish counts both align for the same move - you don't have to guess. For example after the sell off on Thursday there were two options: 1. that completed the 4th wave pullbacck, and 2, it was only wave A down.  Under both the bullish and bearish count - both called for a nice rally off yesterday's account both the ABC wave B and the wave 4 complete. They both lined up for a big bounce - so you play that. Then of course price ended up stalling at my trendline and the 0.786 Fib (which was logical place to exit longs or short. Once price stalled there you didn't know if that completed the abc of B or was wave 1 of 5, but it didn't matter as both called for a pullback there - so going short there was easy as both counts aligned. 

$SPX - Chart Link- additionally: remember guys I stated that we only had 1 wave up in that bounce yesterday. You ALWAYS at least need 3 waves! That's why I favoried more upside.

now today we got that 3rd wave up, and price stopped at that extended trendline

still - we don't know if that was an ABC move that would argue for another move lower to take out recent lows

or the start of a 5 wave move up with that being wave 3

the point is: you needed at least 3 waves, we only had 1 yesterday, so at mimimum you were looking for another upside move. counter trends are always 3 waves, not 1 wave

HYG - Chart Link-

pro tip: regarding the market, if you went short yesterday this morning on the big move down was the time to take ample most or all profits on your short, why? 

As I stated the other day, the market has been in a very strong uptrend with all the short-term MA's pointing strongly up. Unless you are coming off an extremely parabolic blow off move, almost always what happens is that first big pullback is bought.  I've leanred the hard way over the years if catch a nice short entry on the market when it's still in a strong uptrend, if I don't aggressive take profits on the first sell because I'm thinking I caught the top, I'm always disapointed and give those profits back. It's best to aggressive take the profits on the shorts - then add them back after a good bounce if conditions look good. 

the time to hold shorts for swings is after a symmetry break that breaks the uptrend, and you short the oversold bounce - those shorts you can give more room because market structure was broken. Or when the market is downtreding and you short an oversold rally, you can give those room. But when the market has been in a very strong uptrend, if you manage to get short and catch that top - be aggressive in taking profits on that first sell off