here's a 2 min chart of NQ futures, you can see trade entries
and exits from that 60 Stochastic momo - one could easily scalp
trade all day with futures doing that on short time frames
I'll be making a tradingview chart that I'll share,
again I don't know what rules are fully best so here's what I've
been doing:
when one of the 3 indicators gets oversold I go long. If you
want it more stringent you can wait for two that have to confirm at
once, or you could scale in, for example you have one long entry if
one of the indicators gets oversold, and if another one gets
oversold enter a second contract
selling/exits: one could simply exit when one of the fast
indicators gets overbought again, or one could do a combo where if
you were in more than one contract you exit 1/2 when the indicators
get overbought, then trail a stop at each candle low, which can
sometimes keep you in a trend for a while, but you have a tight
exit
$SPX - Chart Link - here's that count I
showed yesterday with that moff off the April 2nd low a wave 1 of
5, the abc pullback yesterday as wave 2 of 5 and this gap over the
downtrend line is wave 3 of 5, which will still have wave 4 and 5
to go
Table of Contents: 1. Opening Discussion, KISS systems
major update soon 2. General Market Analysis: SPX and
Other Major Indices top down fashion higher to lower time frames)
and look at the major big cap tech stocks (NVDA, AAPL etc) 3. Custom Indicators/Systems (VIX,
NYAD) and Bonds (TLT/HYG), 10-Year Yield 4. Sectors Overview 5. US Dollar, Commodities, Crypto,
Precious Metals and GDX and individual mining stocks 6. Trade Ideas
Market Comments: The 'bulls' continue to have the
Football, and have had it since late October, which has made this
uptrend quite impressive getting close to 5 months now. Early last
week we pointed out
very obvious coil triangle patternson the S&P 500
and favored this as a 4th wave with another pop to the upside,
which we got thus pushing the S&P 500 to close over 5200 new
all time highs! For the week the SPX gained +2.3%, the Dow Jones
+2%, the Nasdaq +3%, and the Russell 2000 +1.6%.
Short-term: After the pop out of the coil into Thursday's
high and pullback that extended into Friday, for now we are
favoring this as another 4th wave of some degree with yet another
pop to the upside. That said, it's getting trickier now and late in
the game (may not be much blood left in the turnup should we get
another pop to a new high). If the pullback on the SPX falls below
5175 it would overlap and negate the short-term wave 5 structure.
The 20-day MA is your important support.
- The largest pullback during this
entire uptrend was about 130 points on the S&P 500, meaning a
pullback below 5130 would be required to break uptrend symmetry.
- For the QQQ, the largest pullback has been 17.6 points
- IWM appears to be some sort of rising wedge pattern wave 5
-
Curious spike on the CPI Put/Call ratio to 1.29on Friday
despite the market being almost at all time highs
- The US Dollar had a strong week
gaining 1.1%
- Gold spiked to a high of 2225 before pulling back and
closing at 2160. The daily chart of gold made a divergent high on
that last push
- Bitcoin formed a weekly doji candle last week and last week
lost -4.4%
- Energy Stocks once again had a great week but may be
getting extended here
Economic News This week: New Home Sales - Monday
FHFA Housing Price, S&P Case Shiller, Consumer Confidence
- Tuesday
MBA Mortgage Apps, Crude Inventories - Wednesday
Initial Claims, GDP 3rd Est, Chicago
PMI, Pending Home Sales, Nat Gas Inventories - Thursday
yep they are great! better than worrying about where an exact
trendline should go, the market doesn't work that way anyway, it's
more like quantum physics where the electron isn't in one spot, but
in a probability region
anyway TSLA KISS 130 min went long on Friday, and the 78
min went long this morning,
$SPX - Chart Link- I used to discuss this all
the time, haven't been but here's that old chart that highlights
the 60 length Stochastic when it is embedded above 89%. When such a
condition is present you are in a momentum uptrend. In fact some of
the mean reversion systems look at this condition.
When the stochastic is in such a state, you can use a fast
indicator oscillator gets oversold to trigger a mean reversion
long. Indicators such a a
2 length RSI, a 4 length
fast stochastic, and a 5 length Williams % R
I'm posting not because it's giving you any signal now, but some
of you save our charts and you can save this one.
again all trends eventually come to an end so eventually the 60
Stochastic will fall below 80%. What can happen in those situations
is that you may trigger a long from one of the indicators, then a
day or couple days later the 60 Stochastics falls below 80%, in
such a case you would just treat that as as stop loss, exit
anyway I show all the buy signals that would have occurred via
the dotted vertical lines -
9 mean reversion signals would have occurred in this
condition since December
The system uses multiple average true range calculations that
can and off to each other at different times in the trend, it's all
in the FAQ, I'm not going to list all of them
I've said that the ATR is an exponential one, meaning the most
recent days have more of a weighted effect on the current reading,
so if a 14 length was used, the last 2 days have more of an effect
on the ATR than the previous ones - basically not all days are
equal weighted
here's the charts with the cycle indicators, as we've noted
price has been ping ponging almost perfectly between the cycle
indicator support and resistance. Today we have support cycles
showing up on the 78 min time frames
what is need to break this 'cycle' pun not intended or
uptrend is for price to strongly break through the bottom of the
support cycle, but for now price is still just following the cycles
(bounding off the support cycles and pulling back from the
resistance cycles
yep thanks for sharing, I use 3 and 5 min charts intra day all
the time
for daily setups that I like, I'll look at 2hr, 60 min, and 15
min charts to see if I can see additional patterns that I can use
as triggers such as bull flags, wedges, trendlines, higher lows
where I can place a tight stop
? otherwise on DBA it pulled back to its 20 day MA last
Friday, which in an uptrend is support on the first test, so
logical rebound off it. Otherwise today a black candle so far, has
pulled back well off the highs
here's a 2 min chart
SPX 60 Stochastic mean reversion system
Posted by matt on 4th of Apr 2024 at 01:07 pm
here's a 2 min chart of NQ futures, you can see trade entries and exits from that 60 Stochastic momo - one could easily scalp trade all day with futures doing that on short time frames
I'll be making a tradingview chart that I'll share,
again I don't know what rules are fully best so here's what I've been doing:
when one of the 3 indicators gets oversold I go long. If you want it more stringent you can wait for two that have to confirm at once, or you could scale in, for example you have one long entry if one of the indicators gets oversold, and if another one gets oversold enter a second contract
selling/exits: one could simply exit when one of the fast indicators gets overbought again, or one could do a combo where if you were in more than one contract you exit 1/2 when the indicators get overbought, then trail a stop at each candle low, which can sometimes keep you in a trend for a while, but you have a tight exit
SPX 15 min count from yesterday
Posted by matt on 4th of Apr 2024 at 09:32 am
$SPX - Chart Link - here's that count I showed yesterday with that moff off the April 2nd low a wave 1 of 5, the abc pullback yesterday as wave 2 of 5 and this gap over the downtrend line is wave 3 of 5, which will still have wave 4 and 5 to go
SPX slight break of the channel now, watch 20 day MA
Posted by matt on 2nd of Apr 2024 at 10:57 am
$SPX - Chart Link-
$SPX - Chart Link- daily chart, slight break of the channel line and RSI trendlines, watch 20 day MA now
FANG stocks
Posted by matt on 1st of Apr 2024 at 10:13 am
META - Chart Link- bounced off the coil trendline
AMZN - Chart Link-
NVDA - Chart Link- 20 MA is key
GOOGL - Chart Link- big up day
AAPL - Chart Link- down of course
weekend writeup - newsletter out shortly
Posted by matt on 24th of Mar 2024 at 02:14 pm
Table of Contents:
1. Opening Discussion, KISS systems major update soon
2. General Market Analysis: SPX and Other Major Indices top down fashion higher to lower time frames) and look at the major big cap tech stocks (NVDA, AAPL etc)
3. Custom Indicators/Systems (VIX, NYAD) and Bonds (TLT/HYG), 10-Year Yield
4. Sectors Overview
5. US Dollar, Commodities, Crypto, Precious Metals and GDX and individual mining stocks
6. Trade Ideas
Market Comments: The 'bulls' continue to have the Football, and have had it since late October, which has made this uptrend quite impressive getting close to 5 months now. Early last week we pointed out very obvious coil triangle patternson the S&P 500 and favored this as a 4th wave with another pop to the upside, which we got thus pushing the S&P 500 to close over 5200 new all time highs! For the week the SPX gained +2.3%, the Dow Jones +2%, the Nasdaq +3%, and the Russell 2000 +1.6%.
Short-term: After the pop out of the coil into Thursday's high and pullback that extended into Friday, for now we are favoring this as another 4th wave of some degree with yet another pop to the upside. That said, it's getting trickier now and late in the game (may not be much blood left in the turnup should we get another pop to a new high). If the pullback on the SPX falls below 5175 it would overlap and negate the short-term wave 5 structure. The 20-day MA is your important support.
- The largest pullback during this entire uptrend was about 130 points on the S&P 500, meaning a pullback below 5130 would be required to break uptrend symmetry.
- For the QQQ, the largest pullback has been 17.6 points
- IWM appears to be some sort of rising wedge pattern wave 5
- Curious spike on the CPI Put/Call ratio to 1.29on Friday despite the market being almost at all time highs
- The US Dollar had a strong week gaining 1.1%
- Gold spiked to a high of 2225 before pulling back and closing at 2160. The daily chart of gold made a divergent high on that last push
- Bitcoin formed a weekly doji candle last week and last week lost -4.4%
- Energy Stocks once again had a great week but may be getting extended here
Economic News This week:
New Home Sales - Monday
FHFA Housing Price, S&P Case Shiller, Consumer Confidence - Tuesday
MBA Mortgage Apps, Crude Inventories - Wednesday
Initial Claims, GDP 3rd Est, Chicago PMI, Pending Home Sales, Nat Gas Inventories - Thursday
yep they are great! better
TSLA
Posted by matt on 18th of Mar 2024 at 11:25 am
yep they are great! better than worrying about where an exact trendline should go, the market doesn't work that way anyway, it's more like quantum physics where the electron isn't in one spot, but in a probability region
anyway TSLA KISS 130 min went long on Friday, and the 78 min went long this morning,
60 Stochastic embedded over 80% system
Posted by matt on 18th of Mar 2024 at 09:51 am
$SPX - Chart Link- I used to discuss this all the time, haven't been but here's that old chart that highlights the 60 length Stochastic when it is embedded above 89%. When such a condition is present you are in a momentum uptrend. In fact some of the mean reversion systems look at this condition.
When the stochastic is in such a state, you can use a fast indicator oscillator gets oversold to trigger a mean reversion long. Indicators such a a 2 length RSI, a 4 length fast stochastic, and a 5 length Williams % R
I'm posting not because it's giving you any signal now, but some of you save our charts and you can save this one.
again all trends eventually come to an end so eventually the 60 Stochastic will fall below 80%. What can happen in those situations is that you may trigger a long from one of the indicators, then a day or couple days later the 60 Stochastics falls below 80%, in such a case you would just treat that as as stop loss, exit
anyway I show all the buy signals that would have occurred via the dotted vertical lines - 9 mean reversion signals would have occurred in this condition since December
nice bounce on ES futures
ES futures
Posted by matt on 15th of Mar 2024 at 10:50 am
nice bounce on ES futures and SPX.
remember I said be careful thinking price is just going to easily trend down on a Quad Witch day
plus as I pointed out below the MA ribbon was super wide on the 15 and 5 min charts of ES, looked poised for a bounce
updated views on inverse ETFs
Posted by matt on 15th of Mar 2024 at 10:01 am
SQQQ - Chart Link- testing downtrend line
SPXU - Chart Link- slightly above it
SPXU - Chart Link- slightly above it, below the pivot
FNGD - Chart Link- still in the base but has looked good for a while
UVIX - Chart Link- up but still inside the wedge-like base pattern, Quad Witch today
FNGDj, SPXU, SQQQ
Posted by matt on 14th of Mar 2024 at 09:56 am
FNGD - Chart Link- been holding that base well
SPXU - Chart Link- 2hr view, shows that wedge pattern
SQQQ - Chart Link- daily, I also added a small trendline inside the channel to monitor for a break of that
and remember Quad Witch on Friday
precious metal stocks
Posted by matt on 13th of Mar 2024 at 09:42 am
GDX - Chart Link- on the 2hr you can add a nice up trendline on the GDX/GLD ratio
GDX - Chart Link- daily, remember this group is in momo, therefore areas around the 9 day EMA are support
EXK - Chart Link-
BVN - Chart Link-
The system uses multiple average
I'm struggling to find the right entry point for KISS ...
Posted by matt on 12th of Mar 2024 at 02:56 pm
The system uses multiple average true range calculations that can and off to each other at different times in the trend, it's all in the FAQ, I'm not going to list all of them
I've said that the ATR is an exponential one, meaning the most recent days have more of a weighted effect on the current reading, so if a 14 length was used, the last 2 days have more of an effect on the ATR than the previous ones - basically not all days are equal weighted
again then enter your trades
I'm struggling to find the right entry point for KISS ...
Posted by matt on 12th of Mar 2024 at 02:53 pm
again then enter your trades on your own, and later on after the stock has been uptrending well, use the system stops then
I also see MDLZ triggered yesterday, was only 2.35% away from the stop, EXPE was 4%
Cycle Indicator on 130 and 78 min SPX and QQQ - price is following it well
Posted by matt on 6th of Mar 2024 at 04:32 pm
here's the charts with the cycle indicators, as we've noted price has been ping ponging almost perfectly between the cycle indicator support and resistance. Today we have support cycles showing up on the 78 min time frames
what is need to break this 'cycle' pun not intended or uptrend is for price to strongly break through the bottom of the support cycle, but for now price is still just following the cycles (bounding off the support cycles and pulling back from the resistance cycles
pm stocks
Posted by matt on 4th of Mar 2024 at 09:05 am
EXK - Chart Link- this one from the weekend did great on Friday breaking those trendlines on good vol
AU - Chart Link- been on the list for over a week
DPMLF - Chart Link- was one I mentioned as lower risk with it's relative strength
BVN - Chart Link- BVN has been the strongest, now consolidating again
NG - Chart Link- bottom fish play
GDX, BPGDM, AU, DPMLF
Posted by matt on 1st of Mar 2024 at 01:35 pm
GDX - Chart Link- RSI trendline broken, GDX/GLD ratio testing
GDX - Chart Link- 120 min view
$BPGDM - Chart Link- on a buy signal now
AU - Chart Link- AU and DPMLF were two names I discussed on the weekend and Tuesday/Wedesday
DPMLF - Chart Link-
no, I've been long MSTR
Been under the weather
Posted by matt on 28th of Feb 2024 at 01:01 pm
no, I've been long MSTR from the KISS which is up about the most today, along with GBTC, BITO, MARA
I follow the trend man, just because I'm not a crypto nut doesn't mean I don't play it
yep thanks for sharing, I
I took a position in CIB yesterday based on KISS ...
Posted by matt on 25th of Feb 2024 at 05:34 pm
yep thanks for sharing, I use 3 and 5 min charts intra day all the time
for daily setups that I like, I'll look at 2hr, 60 min, and 15 min charts to see if I can see additional patterns that I can use as triggers such as bull flags, wedges, trendlines, higher lows where I can place a tight stop
? otherwise on DBA it
DBA - WTF? They got eggs in that ETF, or ...
Posted by matt on 20th of Feb 2024 at 11:25 am
? otherwise on DBA it pulled back to its 20 day MA last Friday, which in an uptrend is support on the first test, so logical rebound off it. Otherwise today a black candle so far, has pulled back well off the highs
nice rebound in energy
Posted by matt on 15th of Feb 2024 at 11:49 am
XLE - Chart Link- broking that downtrend line
OIH - Chart Link-
$BPENER - Chart Link- had a buy signal 2 days ago off the BPENER crossing over the 20 MA