here's a 2 min chart

SPX 60 Stochastic mean reversion system

Posted by matt on 4th of Apr 2024 at 01:07 pm

here's a 2 min chart of NQ futures, you can see trade entries and exits from that 60 Stochastic momo - one could easily scalp trade all day with futures doing that on short time frames

I'll be making a tradingview chart that I'll share, 

again I don't know what rules are fully best so here's what I've been doing:

when one of the 3 indicators gets oversold I go long. If you want it more stringent you can wait for two that have to confirm at once, or you could scale in, for example you have one long entry if one of the indicators gets oversold, and if another one gets oversold enter a second contract

selling/exits: one could simply exit when one of the fast indicators gets overbought again, or one could do a combo where if you were in more than one contract you exit 1/2 when the indicators get overbought, then trail a stop at each candle low, which can sometimes keep you in a trend for a while, but you have a tight exit

SPX 15 min count from yesterday

Posted by matt on 4th of Apr 2024 at 09:32 am

$SPX - Chart Link - here's that count I showed yesterday with that moff off the April 2nd low a wave 1 of 5, the abc pullback yesterday as wave 2 of 5 and this gap over the downtrend line is wave 3 of 5, which will still have wave 4 and 5 to go

SPX slight break of the channel now, watch 20 day MA

Posted by matt on 2nd of Apr 2024 at 10:57 am

$SPX - Chart Link-

$SPX - Chart Link- daily chart, slight break of the channel line and RSI trendlines,  watch 20 day MA now

FANG stocks

Posted by matt on 1st of Apr 2024 at 10:13 am

META - Chart Link- bounced off the coil trendline

AMZN - Chart Link-

NVDA - Chart Link- 20 MA is key

GOOGL - Chart Link- big up day

AAPL - Chart Link- down of course

weekend writeup - newsletter out shortly

Posted by matt on 24th of Mar 2024 at 02:14 pm

Table of Contents:
1. Opening Discussion, KISS systems major update soon
2. General Market Analysis: SPX and Other Major Indices top down fashion higher to lower time frames) and look at the major big cap tech stocks (NVDA, AAPL etc)
3. Custom Indicators/Systems (VIX, NYAD) and Bonds (TLT/HYG), 10-Year Yield
4. Sectors Overview
5. US Dollar, Commodities, Crypto, Precious Metals and GDX and individual mining stocks 
6. Trade Ideas

Market Comments:  The 'bulls' continue to have the Football, and have had it since late October, which has made this uptrend quite impressive getting close to 5 months now. Early last week we pointed out  very obvious coil triangle patternson the S&P 500 and favored this as a 4th wave with another pop to the upside, which we got thus pushing the S&P 500 to close over 5200 new all time highs! For the week the SPX gained +2.3%, the Dow Jones +2%, the Nasdaq +3%, and the Russell 2000 +1.6%. 

Short-term: After the pop out of the coil into Thursday's high and pullback that extended into Friday, for now we are favoring this as another 4th wave of some degree with yet another pop to the upside. That said, it's getting trickier now and late in the game (may not be much blood left in the turnup should we get another pop to a new high). If the pullback on the SPX falls below 5175 it would overlap and negate the short-term wave 5 structure. The 20-day MA is your important support.

- The largest pullback during this entire uptrend was about 130 points on the S&P 500, meaning a pullback below 5130 would be required to break uptrend symmetry.
- For the QQQ, the largest pullback has been 17.6 points
- IWM appears to be some sort of rising wedge pattern wave 5
- Curious spike on the CPI Put/Call ratio to 1.29on Friday despite the market being almost at all time highs

- The US Dollar had a strong week gaining 1.1%
- Gold spiked to a high of 2225 before pulling back and closing at 2160. The daily chart of gold made a divergent high on that last push
- Bitcoin formed a weekly doji candle last week and last week lost -4.4%
- Energy Stocks once again had a great week but may be getting extended here

Economic News This week:
New Home Sales - Monday
FHFA Housing Price, S&P Case Shiller, Consumer Confidence - Tuesday
MBA Mortgage Apps, Crude Inventories - Wednesday
Initial Claims, GDP 3rd Est, Chicago PMI, Pending Home Sales, Nat Gas Inventories - Thursday

yep they are great! better

TSLA

Posted by matt on 18th of Mar 2024 at 11:25 am

yep they are great! better than worrying about where an exact trendline should go, the market doesn't work that way anyway, it's more like quantum physics where the electron isn't in one spot, but in a probability region

anyway TSLA KISS 130 min went long on Friday, and the 78  min went long this morning,

60 Stochastic embedded over 80% system

Posted by matt on 18th of Mar 2024 at 09:51 am

$SPX - Chart Link- I used to discuss this all the time, haven't been but here's that old chart that highlights the 60 length Stochastic when it is embedded above 89%. When such a condition is present you are in a momentum uptrend. In fact some of the mean reversion systems look at this condition.

When the stochastic is in such a state, you can use a fast indicator oscillator gets oversold to trigger a mean reversion long. Indicators such a a 2 length RSI, a 4 length fast stochastic, and a 5 length Williams % R

I'm posting not because it's giving you any signal now, but some of you save our charts and you can save this one. 

again all trends eventually come to an end so eventually the 60 Stochastic will fall below 80%. What can happen in those situations is that you may trigger a long from one of the indicators, then a day or couple days later the 60 Stochastics falls below 80%, in such a case you would just treat that as as stop loss, exit

anyway I show all the buy signals that would have occurred via the dotted vertical lines - 9 mean reversion signals would have occurred in this condition since December

nice bounce on ES futures

ES futures

Posted by matt on 15th of Mar 2024 at 10:50 am

nice bounce on ES futures and SPX. 

remember I said be careful thinking price is just going to easily trend down on a Quad Witch day

plus as I pointed out below the MA ribbon was super wide on the 15 and 5 min charts of ES, looked poised for a bounce

updated views on inverse ETFs

Posted by matt on 15th of Mar 2024 at 10:01 am

SQQQ - Chart Link- testing downtrend line

SPXU - Chart Link- slightly above it

SPXU - Chart Link- slightly above it, below the pivot

FNGD - Chart Link- still in the base but has looked good for a while

UVIX - Chart Link- up but still inside the wedge-like base pattern, Quad Witch today

FNGDj, SPXU, SQQQ

Posted by matt on 14th of Mar 2024 at 09:56 am

FNGD - Chart Link- been holding that base well

SPXU - Chart Link- 2hr view, shows that wedge pattern

SQQQ - Chart Link- daily, I also added a small trendline inside the channel to monitor for a break of that

and remember Quad Witch on Friday

precious metal stocks

Posted by matt on 13th of Mar 2024 at 09:42 am

GDX - Chart Link- on the 2hr you can add a nice up trendline on the GDX/GLD ratio

GDX - Chart Link- daily, remember this group is in momo, therefore areas around the 9 day EMA are support 

EXK - Chart Link

BVN - Chart Link-

The system uses multiple average true range calculations that can and off to each other at different times in the trend, it's all in the FAQ, I'm not going to list all of them

I've said that the ATR is an exponential one, meaning the most recent days have more of a weighted effect on the current reading, so if a 14 length was used, the last 2 days have more of an effect on the ATR than the previous ones - basically not all days are equal weighted

again  then enter your trades on your own, and later on after the stock has been uptrending well, use the system stops then

I also see MDLZ triggered yesterday, was only 2.35% away from the stop, EXPE was 4%

here's the charts with the cycle indicators, as we've noted price has been ping ponging almost perfectly between the cycle indicator support and resistance. Today we have support cycles showing up on the 78 min time frames

what is need to break this 'cycle' pun not intended  or uptrend is for price to strongly break through the bottom of the support cycle, but for now price is still just following the cycles (bounding off the support cycles and pulling back from the resistance cycles

pm stocks

Posted by matt on 4th of Mar 2024 at 09:05 am

EXK - Chart Link- this one from the weekend did great on Friday breaking those trendlines on good vol

AU - Chart Link- been on the list for over a week

DPMLF - Chart Link- was one I mentioned as lower risk with it's relative strength

BVN - Chart Link- BVN has been the strongest, now consolidating again

NG - Chart Link- bottom fish play

GDX, BPGDM, AU, DPMLF

Posted by matt on 1st of Mar 2024 at 01:35 pm

GDX - Chart Link- RSI trendline broken, GDX/GLD ratio testing

GDX - Chart Link- 120 min view

$BPGDM - Chart Link- on a buy signal now

AU - Chart Link- AU and DPMLF were two names I discussed on the weekend and Tuesday/Wedesday

DPMLF - Chart Link-

no, I've been long MSTR

Been under the weather

Posted by matt on 28th of Feb 2024 at 01:01 pm

no, I've been long MSTR from the KISS which is up about the most today, along with GBTC, BITO, MARA

I follow the trend man, just because I'm not a crypto nut doesn't mean I don't play it

yep thanks for sharing, I use 3 and 5 min charts intra day all the time

for daily setups that I like, I'll look at 2hr, 60 min, and 15 min charts to see if I can see additional patterns that I can use as triggers such as bull flags, wedges, trendlines, higher lows where I can place a tight stop 

?  otherwise on DBA it pulled back to its 20 day MA last Friday, which in an uptrend is support on the first test, so logical rebound off it. Otherwise today a black candle so far, has pulled back well off the highs

nice rebound in energy

Posted by matt on 15th of Feb 2024 at 11:49 am

XLE - Chart Link- broking that downtrend line

OIH - Chart Link-

$BPENER - Chart Link- had a buy signal 2 days ago off the BPENER crossing over the 20 MA

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