Table of Contents: 1. Opening Discussion, KISS systems
major update soon 2. General Market Analysis: SPX and
Other Major Indices top down fashion higher to lower time frames)
and look at the major big cap tech stocks (NVDA, AAPL etc) 3. Custom Indicators/Systems (VIX,
NYAD) and Bonds (TLT/HYG), 10-Year Yield 4. Sectors Overview 5. US Dollar, Commodities, Crypto,
Precious Metals and GDX and individual mining stocks 6. Trade Ideas
Market Comments: The 'bulls' continue to have the
Football, and have had it since late October, which has made this
uptrend quite impressive getting close to 5 months now. Early last
week we pointed out
very obvious coil triangle patternson the S&P 500
and favored this as a 4th wave with another pop to the upside,
which we got thus pushing the S&P 500 to close over 5200 new
all time highs! For the week the SPX gained +2.3%, the Dow Jones
+2%, the Nasdaq +3%, and the Russell 2000 +1.6%.
Short-term: After the pop out of the coil into Thursday's
high and pullback that extended into Friday, for now we are
favoring this as another 4th wave of some degree with yet another
pop to the upside. That said, it's getting trickier now and late in
the game (may not be much blood left in the turnup should we get
another pop to a new high). If the pullback on the SPX falls below
5175 it would overlap and negate the short-term wave 5 structure.
The 20-day MA is your important support.
- The largest pullback during this
entire uptrend was about 130 points on the S&P 500, meaning a
pullback below 5130 would be required to break uptrend symmetry.
- For the QQQ, the largest pullback has been 17.6 points
- IWM appears to be some sort of rising wedge pattern wave 5
-
Curious spike on the CPI Put/Call ratio to 1.29on Friday
despite the market being almost at all time highs
- The US Dollar had a strong week
gaining 1.1%
- Gold spiked to a high of 2225 before pulling back and
closing at 2160. The daily chart of gold made a divergent high on
that last push
- Bitcoin formed a weekly doji candle last week and last week
lost -4.4%
- Energy Stocks once again had a great week but may be
getting extended here
Economic News This week: New Home Sales - Monday
FHFA Housing Price, S&P Case Shiller, Consumer Confidence
- Tuesday
MBA Mortgage Apps, Crude Inventories - Wednesday
Initial Claims, GDP 3rd Est, Chicago
PMI, Pending Home Sales, Nat Gas Inventories - Thursday
Matt, guessing you will address in your newsletter but based on
the ES chart you posted below it looks like a wave 4 could be in as
ES is at the bottom of the channel/flag whereas on the S&P
chart it looks like there's a lot of room on the downside to put in
a wave 4.
Newsletter
Subscribe to our email list for regular free market updates
as well as a chance to get coupons!
weekend writeup - newsletter out shortly
Posted by matt on 24th of Mar 2024 at 02:14 pm
Table of Contents:
1. Opening Discussion, KISS systems major update soon
2. General Market Analysis: SPX and Other Major Indices top down fashion higher to lower time frames) and look at the major big cap tech stocks (NVDA, AAPL etc)
3. Custom Indicators/Systems (VIX, NYAD) and Bonds (TLT/HYG), 10-Year Yield
4. Sectors Overview
5. US Dollar, Commodities, Crypto, Precious Metals and GDX and individual mining stocks
6. Trade Ideas
Market Comments: The 'bulls' continue to have the Football, and have had it since late October, which has made this uptrend quite impressive getting close to 5 months now. Early last week we pointed out very obvious coil triangle patternson the S&P 500 and favored this as a 4th wave with another pop to the upside, which we got thus pushing the S&P 500 to close over 5200 new all time highs! For the week the SPX gained +2.3%, the Dow Jones +2%, the Nasdaq +3%, and the Russell 2000 +1.6%.
Short-term: After the pop out of the coil into Thursday's high and pullback that extended into Friday, for now we are favoring this as another 4th wave of some degree with yet another pop to the upside. That said, it's getting trickier now and late in the game (may not be much blood left in the turnup should we get another pop to a new high). If the pullback on the SPX falls below 5175 it would overlap and negate the short-term wave 5 structure. The 20-day MA is your important support.
- The largest pullback during this entire uptrend was about 130 points on the S&P 500, meaning a pullback below 5130 would be required to break uptrend symmetry.
- For the QQQ, the largest pullback has been 17.6 points
- IWM appears to be some sort of rising wedge pattern wave 5
- Curious spike on the CPI Put/Call ratio to 1.29on Friday despite the market being almost at all time highs
- The US Dollar had a strong week gaining 1.1%
- Gold spiked to a high of 2225 before pulling back and closing at 2160. The daily chart of gold made a divergent high on that last push
- Bitcoin formed a weekly doji candle last week and last week lost -4.4%
- Energy Stocks once again had a great week but may be getting extended here
Economic News This week:
New Home Sales - Monday
FHFA Housing Price, S&P Case Shiller, Consumer Confidence - Tuesday
MBA Mortgage Apps, Crude Inventories - Wednesday
Initial Claims, GDP 3rd Est, Chicago PMI, Pending Home Sales, Nat Gas Inventories - Thursday
This week watch the US
Posted by matt on 24th of Mar 2024 at 03:13 pm
This week watch the US Dollar, NVDA, TLT and 10-year, and this potential 4th wave pullback on the SPX/ES futures
Matt, guessing you will address
Posted by DK on 24th of Mar 2024 at 03:26 pm
Matt, guessing you will address in your newsletter but based on the ES chart you posted below it looks like a wave 4 could be in as ES is at the bottom of the channel/flag whereas on the S&P chart it looks like there's a lot of room on the downside to put in a wave 4.