$SPX - Chart Link was a pretty easy long to take some ETS futures off, again in uptrends 3 waves are your friend

GDX - Chart Link- one day doesn't make a trend, but been outperforming relative to gold today.  Bounced after filling that gap

I will be recording here in a few minutes so that you have time to watch the newsletter well before the Super Bowl or Superbowl however you spell it (seems like that's a controversy LOL), here's my writeup

I hope everyone had a nice weekend so far and I'm sure many of you have Superbowl or Super Bowl (which is correct) plans/parties on Sunday evening, that's why I'm putting out this newsletter/video as earlier than we typically post on late Sunday afternoon.

The S&P 500 closed above 5000! Remember that 5000 was an easy target, those big round numbers are self-fulfilling psychological zones that are magnets when price gets too close. The uptrend momentum train continues, and in typical fashion the market has rallied throughout earnings season (as it almost always does). 

The market has climbed a wall of worry over the last year. The thing about 'Wall of Worries' is that you can always make a rational reason/s why the market is too overvalued and overbought, and what's worse is that this may keep you on the sidelines not participating in the rally. 

This is why following the trend is important and like a broken record this is why I keep pressing the KISS Trend Systems, they are designed to adapt and catch the trend, they are unbiased. The KISS systems went long on the major indexes back in late October and early November as well as most of the major stocks and have nailed this uptrend.

Real Time KISS Systems Trades : KISS SPY +24%, KISS UPRO +46.4%, KISS QQQ +24.1%, CRWD +115.8%, NVDA +43.9%, META +34.89%

From a technical perspective, nothing has changed, I'm viewing this move as a wave (v) of 3 that once it ends, we'll have a larger wave 4 pullback (in the bull market) it won't be the high of the bull market but a nice correction. For now we simply follow the uptrend and the KISS systems.  As earning seasons winds down, that could be one things that has been pushing the market higher to finally cause some weakness. 

Party Like It's 1999!  Honestly those of you who were in the market in 1999, this action remains me of this, go with the flow until the music stops

Key Events This Coming Week:
- Monday: Treasury Budget
- Tuesday: CPI/Core CPI
- Wednesday: MBA Mortgage, Crude Inventories
- Thursday: Initial Jobless Claims, Export/Import prices, Philly Fed, Buis Inventories, NAHB Housing, Natural Gas Inventories
- Friday: PPI, Core PPI,  Housing Starts, Univ Michigan Sentiment

One of you sent me a message yesterday, I don't think he'll mind if I post it here for education

He was looking to buy and noticed that MSI had a good chart - the KSIS system was already long from Jan 19th but price had pulled back and was only just over 2% away from the current STS, so very close - his reasoning was that it wasn't a bad risk/reward with the stop so close and the chart from a technical perspective looked good

Just was poking around looking for interesting things to enter for my KISS portfolio.. curious what you think of MSI? It's only 2% from it's STS and it's got a cup & handle look to me though maybe the handle is too deep? Look interesting to you?

https://breakpointtrades.com/sts_table/?search=msi

It's an example of if you missed an entry and noticed the system has been long the stock for a bit, but has pulled back pretty close to the STS, your risk isn't bad. That's why we show the % price away from the STS. If price is 15 and 20% away from the current STS, that is a much riskier entry. 

you can sort the columns, so you can sort by % away from STS, Demark, number in trend, whatever

it's just normal occurrences when the 9 and 20 MA's have a strong up slope, not a new phenomenon of the markets - you have to have a symmetry break of the uptrend, then lower high that flattens out the MA's before start getting follow throughs and trending moves to the downside

here's a message I sent to a guy I know who was loaded with July SPY Puts - I told him days ago to consider taking a bunch of those off on the first rug pull big down down because with the fast MA's sloping how they are, chances are we'll get a big rebound - don't hold them thinking you've caught the top, I've been burned too many times in the past doing that and learned my lesson when short take a bunch off on the first sell off, or all of it unless there's a break in symmetry and structure

remember I've talked to you numerous times recently about all those July puts you hold - remember my comments: the short term MA's 9/20 were all strongly upsloping, and because of that take some good profits on the first sell off because you always get a strong retracement, it's not until you put in a lower high that causes the MA's to flatten out that you get your more sustained move. When the SPX was down 80 points you should have taken a bunch of those off the table from what my discussion to you - now you could have added them back much better. I wasn't trying to lecture you - I was trying to share my experience - I used to do that too, pick tops - then there's a huge 1 day sell off and I think to myself 'I caught the top, I'm going to hold' and don't take anything off the table and bam, I give the profits back - I've learned the hard way so many times - that's what I was trying to convey to you

I'll be sending out here in a min. These are very short term systems, a few days, will exit if we bounce up for a day or so. The have high winning percentage and good profit facator, but like any mean reversion can at times buy too early when a downtrend is beginning.

the QE MOMO triggered on both SPY and ES - you can choose to follow both or one or none, whichever fits your style. 

oh yeah, I'm painfully aware as I had some shares - otherwise OIH day was testing the daily downtrend line, so from a technical standpoint a pullback was logical since price was RIGHT at resistance, see chart from newsletter

GDX - Chart Link- price found logical support in that demand zone the other day that we had in place for a couple weeks

the ratio trendline on the GDX/GLD was nice and long, was broken today

here's part of a write up I did in the past on MA's where price  breaks 9 EMA after a trending move then you test the 20 day, and once the 20 is lost you test the 50

The daily chart of TSLA below shows a simple example of this price action around these moving averages. First off you can see how TSLA entered a momentum uptrend in December and that each pullback found support/bounced off the 9-EMA (magenta). When price is in a strong momentum uptrend, it will tend to follow the 9-EMA up like this. Furthermore, aggressive momentum traders could have placed limit orders near the 9-EMA to catch those low-risk pullback buying opportunities lasting from December and into February.

Notice that once the 9-EMA was lost -rice did have a quick reaction bounce there in late February off its 20-SMA (in blue), however once price lost the 20-SMA, this opened the door for a sell off down to test its 50-day MA (in red). Furthermore, since price hadn’t tested its 50-day MA for a long time, price bounced nicely off it for a week or so, thus providing an aggressive trader a short-term bounce long opportunity near the 50-SMA. 

Once price lost the 50-SMA after the lower high bounce, it then fell to its 200-day MA (in green), where once again rallied off and could have provided a low risk entry for a trader.  You can see some of the process repeat itself again in April – May with the 9-EMA and 20-SMA. Observe that once the 9-EMA was lost on a closing basis on May 1st, price bounced logically off the 20-day SMA.

Good morning everyone and happy Friday. Last night I sent out an email regarding the SPY/ES mean reversion systems, several which went long yesterday but I did not see that until well after the close. This morning ES futures are down 15 points, thus prices are at better prices than the system. For SPY 2 sub systems took a 1st entry long and for MES 3 sub systems took a 1st entry long.  

Trades issued for the website:

SPY: 1 st entry long for Trend/Pullback - I"m taking a trade here in pre market. 

MES:  1st entry MES for Trend/Pullback, and Strap  - entering here in pre market

JOBS DATA here in a few minutes,  I'm entering the trades here or you can wait to see the impact of the Jobs Report, which could send prices higher or lower - it's a crap shoot so you can chose to enter now or wait

I will add these trades to the SPY/ES mean reversion systems section on the website later this morning

As you know the mean reversion systems have been very quiet, which is logical given the straight up move the market over the last couple months with really no pullbacks.

That said unfortunately my focus has been on these KISS systems and when I finally looked at these mean reversion systems this evening, several of them triggered. I apologized for not seeing these until  now.  I may issue official trade alerts in the morning, so I'm giving you a heads up

SPY systems:  
Two subsystems triggered: Trend Pullback 1st entry, and QE swing 3 momo 1st entry

ES systems:
3 sub systems triggered: Trend Pullback, Trend MOMO, and Strap

The MOMO system tend to be very short term only triggering on shallow pullbacks when the 60 length Stochastic is still above 80% while a faster indicator is oversold. 

My plan is to issue these trades tomorrow, but unfortunately we have the Jobs numbers and thus we could see a gap either way.  Because the momo trades are very short term and because we missed the entry I may not issue those. 

Tomorrow if the market is down, then entries are easy. But if we see a big gap up, it's tough to chase.

I may issue trade notifications for these early Friday morning and I'm giving you a heads up now. If you are one who trades ES/MES futures you could obviously enter them at any time as they trade all night

$COMPQ - Chart Link- As I mentioned this morning the NYMO after divergering with the SPX for 2 months went below the zero line yesterday. As Tom McClellan states the divergence is the signal (but not the trigger), the trigger is closing below zero. While not perfect, when I looked at the past 5 years it's been a pretty good signal. In very strong trends what can happen is it dip below zero then go back up, which you need a stop basically

here's the Twitter post from Tom McClellan

https://twitter.com/McClellanOsc/status/1742360892334076086 

$SPX - Chart Link- here's another 60 min chart as Steve just posted one

the largest pullback in the uptrend has been 80 points, with today's move the SPX was down 62 points off the lows, so no break in symmetry yet with respect to the late October lows

HE - Chart Link- been on the watchlist for over a week, it's showing relative strength today. Still below the base trendline but an up day so far

Exhaustion short no - it triggers off the highs. Sometimes those exhaustion shorts can be great shorts picking a decent high, HOWEVER most of the time you just get a mean reversion pullback in the uptrend and if you wait for a reversal trigger you give up too much waiting for the reversal confirmation. But again, a lot of things have to line up for that condition to trigger such as like > 30  consecutive days above a short term MA, and RSI > a certain level, and %R in the upper 90's etc

yes it's been building - like I said, the VIX is getting reaedy for some kind of pop either way with those pinching bollinger bands on the daily

and as I stated on the weekend the pop could go in a variety of ones. One would be just a straight up reversal and strong up day. 

another possiblity would be a fakeout bull trap where the VIX pops hard to the downside for a couple days, then reverses hard - I've seen that many time before when the Bollinger Bands are pinching - there's a quick head fake drop then reversal

we'll see.. Nothing changed with the trend yet, but definteily something to monitor

the end of bull cycle on the QQQ 1/2 day chart is notable. 

that is a good example of the cycle indicator and how it corresponds to Elliot Wave: When price broke through the resistance cycle in early Nov, that signaled a wave 3 trending move. The sideways consolidation resulted in a support cycle, which was wave 4, and this end of bull cycle is postulating that this move was a wave 5.  Again these don't always play out but it is something to note, and there is pretty strong MACD divergence on the 1/2 day QQQ

AVGO - Chart Link- following through

NRDS - Chart Link- following through

FSR - Chart Link- oversold setup, stalling some at that trendline, have to wait for next week to see action

APO - Chart Link- breakout idea is retrying. At this point I'd place a stop at yesterday's lows

AMTX - Chart Link- followed through in the morning, then reversed, I got trapped. But holding the position as price is holding that trendline for now

MAXN - Chart Link- poped some

KGC - Chart Link- nice pop, best to have bought it yesterday though

only me posting today. Are you guys shell shocked after yesterday's move? Or fat and complacent with the market just uptrending along LOL

also, per my discussion in last night's video on the cycles - PLAYED OUT PERFECTLY

I discussed SPX and QQQ ping ponging between the support and resistance cycles almost perfectly on the 78 min time frames, I stated once price breaks through one of those cycles (instead of reversing at one) that would signal a breakout and trending wave 3 - got that perfectly today.

and why was the move so strong? Well as I stated, when you finally break that cycle, it signals a wave 3 trending move and wave 3's are the strongest waves, hense massive rally today