ES bounced off that level at lows pre market

remember today is Quad Witch  - usually you don't see a straight trend day on these days, a lot of chop, such as down mornings, bounces in afternoons etc, vs just being down all day or up all day

$SPX - Chart Link- updated view on the intra day symmetry - largest two rallies were about 15/16 points - that needs to be exceeded intra day to start some sort of late day rally.

Otherwise on a Trend down day price could just keep stair stepping down, unless you get that intra day symmetry brea

$VIX - Chart Link - listen I know it's easy to say this now in hindsight after the fact but it's something I've pointed out before

the uncorrelation this time in my opinion was suggesting an upside move, why?

As you know when the VIX becomes uncorrelated it occurs near a market inflection big move typically.  In my observation on the chart, if price has been uptrending and you get the uncorrelation, usually that would mark a high. If price had been down trending recently, it usually marked a move higher - and recently price had pulled back for a couple weeks - the reverse move would have been up, not down. Yes, yesterday was up, but overall still in that small downtrend move. You can look over the chart - and there are plenty of times when that move is only 1 or a couple days, and other times when it markets a trend

again, at the end of the day it was about the CPI and if it hadn't come in where it had, price would not have had the move, also these days everyone is hyper positioned for short term moves. The big reason why the VIX spiked uncorrelated yesterday was because of all the hedge buying ahead of the CPI 

nice job! again they would be closing out today anyway, those Strap's do not hold for longer trends

PRTS - Chart Link- posted yesterday, last night I discussed and said it still looked good, this morning bounced right off that trendline of the pattern

I know that the market makes folks emotional, I get it, I get emotional to, we're all human (most).

Last week there were some posts here but really I received about 10 emails from folks asking if the bear market was over and we should count this as a new bull market uptrend. 

For one: I'm superstitions after all these years. Asking that question after the market had huge 3% move last Wednesday and was well off the lows - the market gods see that, and have to come punish you, it's like being one of those A's. Posts after a huge rally day stem from emotion and so I don't take those questions that seriously. I would take the posts more seriously atter the 5 waves down and first rally up - but when they come after a 5 week uptrend and on the day the market rallied 3%

anyway just ranting a bit because late last week and on the weekend I spent way too much time replying to all these emails asking now if the bear market was over - don't ask them that after a big rally LOL because you are wearing your emotion on your t-shirt

I still view it as a bear market rally - again KISS daily system has been back long for 5 weeks on the S&P 500, QQQ has been long, refer to the STS stops. Should the market do a 'magic  mike' event, they will catch it and make new STS higher low stops over time, should the market eventually sell down again, the will get out, why complicate it.  

some possible targets I see is 4100 on the low end (fills a gap), then 50% Fib off the Jan highs at 4150, if things really rock and roll maybe 4300. SPX closed near a downtrend line from the Jan highs and above the 200 day MA. It now needs to STAY above the 200 day MA

and ETF's like VYM, which is my favorite is up for the year now

When the VIX gets uncorrelated to the SPX it means that a price reversal is coming within a day or so. that reversal in price might be as short as 1 day, for example price has been uptrending, and you get a good 1 day pullback only, or a 1 day bounce if price was down trending. It could be anywhere from a day to a several days, and once in a while they occur at major highs and lows. when you study the chart, it goes back and forth- generally the way I look at it: if price is uptrending and you get one of these, then expect at least a 1 day or several days pullback coming any time. If price is down trending and you get one of these, then expect a price bounce any day (again could last a day, several days, or larger inflection)

YMM - Chart Link- long ideas from Monday's letter, broke the trendline yesterday, nice follow through today

CTLT - Chart Link- triggered yesterday, up some today

Here's a chart showing a 2 and 1hr chart of ES futures. Note on the 2hr I point out a bullish symmetry break, largest bounce since last Thursday's highs (symmetry is relative to the start of the trend). This places high odds that the next pullback (relative to this move) will form a higher low. 

Note I point out a possible MACD KISS, Stoch OS setup that may be in the process of forming this morning

Obviously at of news yet to come today and for the week

remember guys - in those tables you can quickly search for a stock by typing the symbol in the search box. You can also sort columns by clicking the header - so for example if you wanted to see which stock has the longest Demark count, click the header, or which stock is the furthest away from it's STS, click the header, or short symbols alphabetically, click the header

again the tables are total beta, more will be added, and more refinement as well as some sort of text description above them with maybe a video as well. I'd also like to have a small list displayed at the top of each table that shows which stocks generated new STSs that day etc. The other thing I'd like to have is how many STS's have been generated in an uptrend.  For example if a stock triggered long 5 months ago and has had 12 higher low trailing stops generated (12 STS's), that's useful to see vs a stock that triggered a week ago and only has 1 STS so far

as far as the tables self-updating. This won't occur in real time obviously and that's not needed, STS's are not changing intra day really and having a feed to the tables every second would tax our resources too much. I think maybe twice a day would be fine, such as mid day (you could see if a new STS or Demark) was likely, and then at the close, twice a day would be fine

ADM - Chart Link - Steve's setup last night went over that trendline some, off the highs, if you bought, place stops in

CROX - Chart Link - continues to follow through-  I still hold shares for a swing with trailing shares

CLH - Chart Link - idea from last night, that support are was good for a low risk long - if one took a long, consider taking some profits up near these MA's

FLNG - Chart Link- again not every trade goes, long idea from Monday, never triggered, no trigger no trade

EEM - Chart Link- on Friday that move up in EEM represented the largest rally since the down trend began in Feb 2021, largest rally in nearly 2 years. Even more follow through today. that long term bullish break in symmetry is note worthy 

again as far as the gap on the cash - watch to see how it holds the 1st 10 or 15 min, will it turn into a trend type of day or gap and then fade

https://breakpointtrades.com/education/legacy/?nl_id=3297 

anyway, today wouldn't be the traditional breakaway gap for the SPX because price isn't gapping over a downtrend line

otherwise remember PPI here very shortly, we'll see if futures further strengthen or weaken after that

Remember as I stated in the newsletter last night, we viewed that pullback yesterday as a wave 4 of some degree, now is it over or could it still take a couple days to unfold is the question

otherwise as far as the gap - assuming we still get one after the PPI, monitor to see how the gap holds - if it's a gap and go trend day where price gaps and holds the gap and gets strongly all morning, generally you can tell within the 1st 10 to 15 min. 

anyway PPI in 4 min now

$SPX - Chart Link - Thursday shows a good example of a breakaway gap. Many people are scared to chase and buy gap ups, but these breakaway gaps are ones that you chase, you buy them! 

They occur when price gaps strongly over a resistance trendline. These are not gaps to be scared of. Yes would have been best to be long on that Wednesday close, but on Thusday's cash breakaway gap, that was also an opportunity - for a trade anyway

Should there be any system trades, James will send out, but I don't see those triggering, no shorts. and I'm surprised the Breakout sub system didn't trigger quite honestly. I also imagine we'll see a new MUCH DVT stop today generated on the SPX KISS trend system

otherwise - seems like some of these recent posts are from emotion after a huge up day. Try to keep emotions at bay. Things like I said the market was bottomed at this price for the year, okay great job, we know that as it's been reiterated 20 times. We had clear 5 waves down  in Oct and in my mind that was very powerful - and the rubber band got so stretched. Also depends on what type of low we had - if it was the major wave A of the bear market then this could go further than people thing to the upside. But it doesn't matter. also -I have longs and even though I'm gone today

try to keep emotions at bay. trade your plan, and have conviction with your plan and your trades. but NEVER get over confident thinking you've figured it all out - Basically have conviction and some confidence in your system, but ALWAYS stay humble!

one guy Steve and I follow, won't mention his name, he nailed it almost perfect  for most of the year - then he started bragging like crazy about how good he was, how he's figured it all out because he developed this amazing approach - I commented to Steve - that guy has been good this year, but he better shut up, the market gods will be coming for him to knock him in its place -and BOOM that's what's been happening to him here lately.  

have fun guys - don't over stress about the market, even if you did not get positioned as strongly early yesterday as you would have liked and now feel like you don't have enough longs - best to regroup and set a plan. 

later

$SPX - Chart Link- on a trend day this should resolve up

note the SPX is already up 155 points LOL

ASPS - Chart Link- bucking the trend this week and especially today it's up 9%

BOIL - Chart Link- it's what makes trading difficult at times - do you take the money and run, or hold on - clearly with BOIL is was best to do a Steve Miller Band approach and take the money and run on Monday morning. 

but then stocks like NINE was best to stick with it.

for me I always have to take something off, 1/2 or 2/3, then I let the rest ride if I think there's a chance it will continue in a trending run. it's not always the right approach either- that's what makes trading not a one fit all and complicated 

NINE - Chart Link-

https://youtu.be/ido6NrjGi2o?t=50