I was not paying as close attention to the markets a couple of
years ago as I am now so I would like to get a response from some
of you that may have been:
I was sudying the dollar/S&P correlaion last night.
From 06 to 08 the dollar was dropping culminating in a low in
april/may 08 of 71ish. Why is it percieved know, with the
dollar at 76ish that the dollar is 'crashing" or at least on the
verge of? It would seem to me that we have a long ways to go
before we reach 72-71 (altough it could easily be there in short
order, but it dosn't have to be either).
In 07 and 08 was everyone saying this is doom and gloom for
the dollar when it brook 76 and the earth was ending when it brook
72? Just curious what peple remember.
Posted by brucewayne on 9th of Oct 2009 at 09:09 am
There was a lot of doom and gloom about the dollar in 2008 as it
was bottoming too. The thing that really caught people off
guard was how hard it rallied at the exact same time the market
started collapsing. That's what ended up really killing the
commodities producers and foreign stocks, the added strength in the
dollar.
So if you're a contrarian the doom and gloom on the dollar
right now could turn out to be bullish, especially since it is
still 4 points away from 2008 lows. Ultimately the dollar has
to prove itself though and start moving up since it is still
technically in a downtrend.
I had an old trader once tell me the major money is made by
making big bets at the top and bottom, but I do just fine playing
in the middle. I agree with your statement that you will also
be able to wait for the dollar to show some strength
first.
If someone had an axe to grind using an ETF here you can do what
I did with the USO months back and sell upside-calls out in the
future and use degradation to your benefit and lower your cost.
Keep and eye out for
Mattand
pccambell'sposts on the dollar because I think they might
have the best dollar analysis around.
As the
dollargoes lower it's good for us as we won't have to pay our
debt off in the same value units as when we borrowed it. Also, it
makes goods produced in this country cheaper for the world markets.
Trouble is we don't make much anymore.
This is seen as bullish UNLESS the US Dollar was to fall so low
that the world markets decided it isn't worth the paper it's
printed on.
This is the classic Bull Bear argument among "economist" and
gold bugs.
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Dollar Question
Posted by stmorten on 9th of Oct 2009 at 07:22 am
I was not paying as close attention to the markets a couple of years ago as I am now so I would like to get a response from some of you that may have been:
I was sudying the dollar/S&P correlaion last night. From 06 to 08 the dollar was dropping culminating in a low in april/may 08 of 71ish. Why is it percieved know, with the dollar at 76ish that the dollar is 'crashing" or at least on the verge of? It would seem to me that we have a long ways to go before we reach 72-71 (altough it could easily be there in short order, but it dosn't have to be either).
In 07 and 08 was everyone saying this is doom and gloom for the dollar when it brook 76 and the earth was ending when it brook 72? Just curious what peple remember.
Steve
Look at US indices express
Posted by massimo on 9th of Oct 2009 at 09:45 am
Look at US indices express in Euro
There was a lot of
Posted by brucewayne on 9th of Oct 2009 at 09:09 am
There was a lot of doom and gloom about the dollar in 2008 as it was bottoming too. The thing that really caught people off guard was how hard it rallied at the exact same time the market started collapsing. That's what ended up really killing the commodities producers and foreign stocks, the added strength in the dollar.
So if you're a contrarian the doom and gloom on the dollar right now could turn out to be bullish, especially since it is still 4 points away from 2008 lows. Ultimately the dollar has to prove itself though and start moving up since it is still technically in a downtrend.
I had an old trader
Posted by tom on 9th of Oct 2009 at 09:20 am
I had an old trader once tell me the major money is made by making big bets at the top and bottom, but I do just fine playing in the middle. I agree with your statement that you will also be able to wait for the dollar to show some strength first.
If someone had an axe to grind using an ETF here you can do what I did with the USO months back and sell upside-calls out in the future and use degradation to your benefit and lower your cost.
Keep and eye out for Mattand pccambell'sposts on the dollar because I think they might have the best dollar analysis around.
As the dollargoes lower it's
Posted by ditch on 9th of Oct 2009 at 07:37 am
As the dollargoes lower it's good for us as we won't have to pay our debt off in the same value units as when we borrowed it. Also, it makes goods produced in this country cheaper for the world markets. Trouble is we don't make much anymore.
This is seen as bullish UNLESS the US Dollar was to fall so low that the world markets decided it isn't worth the paper it's printed on.
This is the classic Bull Bear argument among "economist" and gold bugs.