Posted by brucewayne on 28th of Sep 2010 at 01:03 am
I've got a nice position now in FMM.V, it's another junior miner
that was formerly in the 3 dollar range and now in the 30 cent
range. It's breaking out of a nice stage 1 base and the
fundamental news flow seems good. Anyone else holding that
one?
Posted by brucewayne on 10th of Aug 2010 at 11:20 pm
Any opinions out there on who is the best online forex
broker? I'm looking for a browser based platform and besides
that low commissions and a good user interface and customer support
would be nice.
Posted by brucewayne on 4th of Aug 2010 at 10:49 pm
Doesn't it take years or even decades for a popped bubble to
re-inflate again? A.k.a look at the Nasdaq or gold, Nasdaq
still hasn't re-inflated and it took gold 20+ years. I think
the peak oil theory sounds logical but according to the bubble
burst theory oil shouldn't do anything for a long time either.
Posted by brucewayne on 4th of Aug 2010 at 10:42 pm
I used to live in Palm Bay, Florida....I sold my house in 2006
and saved a lot of money! I still look at the MLS website and
shake my head how much my old neighborhood has gone down in
price.
Posted by brucewayne on 5th of Jul 2010 at 12:37 pm
Personally I buy the single ETFs for long term holds, and the
leveraged ETFs only for daily or weekly moves. Only when the
trend is one direction with minimal volatility will the leveraged
ETFs do significantly better than the single ETFs over the same
time period. An extreme example is DTO when oil collapsed in
2008, that ETF was phenomenal since oil steadily cratered over a
few months. During the credit crisis in 2008 SDS only
outperformed SH during a couple extreme downlegs, otherwise it
didn't really do much better than it. The simple math behind
the gain it takes to offset a loss is why they get chopped up so
much in choppy markets.
Posted by brucewayne on 16th of Mar 2010 at 11:52 pm
When (or If) the Feb highs get taken out in the inverse ETFs,
that might be a good time to get short the markets. Seems
like we need an established "higher high" first, or at best we're
just in Stage 1 of a bearish trend, and at worst we are in the
Stage 4 death cycle if you're a bear.
Posted by brucewayne on 8th of Mar 2010 at 11:47 pm
I had a long trade triggered today on RF. The volume
hasn't come in yet but some other regional banks, STI, HBAN, FITB,
are all also sitting on resistance so some action could be coming
soon.
Posted by brucewayne on 7th of Mar 2010 at 07:16 pm
Two of my favorites are Secrets for Profiting in Bull and Bear
Markets by Stan Weinstein and How I Made $2 Million in the Stock
Market by Nicholas Darvas. I like the stage analysis stuff by
Weinstein and I think that is useful in determining when you should
be doing more buying and holding vs. selling and staying out of the
market, depending on what stage the market is in. The Darvas
story is interesting because it describes how he evolves as a
trader and eventually finds a methodology that actually works for
him.
Posted by brucewayne on 28th of Jan 2010 at 10:59 pm
I think best case scenario on gold is a trading range develops,
worse case we get more downside than you might expect. This
has been probably the longest rally for gold bullion yet in terms
of time duration too so it's possible that gold might enter a
trading range that lasts until the fall, and that would coincide
nicely with a countertrend rally in the dollar.
BERNANKE'S GRAND DELUSION (January 24, 2010): Ben Bernanke is
convinced that if he had been alive in 1929, he would have been
able to entirely prevent the Great Depression, and he is attempting
to prove that by doing over the past couple of years what he would
have done eight decades earlier. Unfortunately (or fortunately,
depending upon your point of view), he is going to discover that he
can only make a minor impact on the financial markets--and not at
all in the way he had anticipated. He cannot possibly affect the
rate of unemployment over the next decade, or the rate of U.S.
economic growth. He can moderately increase the intensity to which
inflation will surge higher later in this decade, and he is in fact
doing exactly that without even realizing the consequences of his
actions.
Even if all of the world's governments got together and reached
a unanimous decision about how to proceed to "save" the financial
markets, the future is already cast--not in stone, perhaps, but in
very thick mud. We are on the verge of a major worldwide equity
bear market. Even with the high degree of global economic
coordination and synchronized stimulus that currently exists,
nothing can have a significant impact on the future since even a
well-capitalized, well-connected, and well-organized organization
cannot overcome the pattern of proven economic cycles which has
existed for thousands of years, and which will continue to exist
for many more thousands of years assuming that humans continue to
exist on this planet.
The combination of the giddy prosperity at the end of the
twentieth century and the housing bubble from the beginning of this
century can only be resolved through a typical era of stagnation.
While the current era of stagnation which began in March 2000 will
almost surely be worse than 1966-1982, it will probably be quite a
bit less severe than 1929-1949 which included the Great Depression,
and it will also likely be less severe than the worst stagnation
eras of the 19th century. In other words, we are living through
your typical, garden-variety stagnation. There's nothing special
about it; if we all lived to be 500 years of age, then it would be
"same old, same old" and we would sit around talking about how it
was 1873 all over again. However, since we have shorter lifespans
and almost no one even knows about previous eras of stagnation
except for the Great Depression itself--which is treated as a form
of extinct species like a Tyrannosaurus Rex--then we act as if we
were the first generation in history to have to struggle with the
problems which exist today. While much has of course changed in
society, culture, and science through the millennia, the current
era of stagnation would have been familiar to everyone from Julius
Caesar to Ulysses S. Grant. If most of today's investors think that
today's economic climate is unique or unusual, then they simply
have either not studied economic history or fell asleep in
class.
Those like Ben Bernanke who are intimately familiar with
financial history, but who believe that if they had lived in 1870
or 1930 then it would have turned out entirely differently, are
living a delusional existence. In the Book of Genesis, Joseph is
able to accurately forecast an upcoming severe era of stagnation,
but is not so foolish or arrogant to think he can prevent it.
Instead, Joseph takes the correct actions during the previous era
of prosperity to essentially perform the equivalent of selling
short equities and buying U.S. Treasuries, so that Egypt prospers
enormously when stagnation arrives. In contrast, the rest of the
world suffers from its refusal to recognize proven historic
patterns, which even then had no doubt already been well
established. If Bernanke thinks he can outdo Joseph, then the next
decade will determine his proper place in history. If Bernanke is
still being compared with anyone named Joseph in 2020, then it will
be the Joseph who encouraged his Jonestown followers to drink
lethal kool-aid.
If everyone in your neighborhood were to max out on all of their
credit cards, then it would certainly appear to be a flourishing
place. However, problems would simply be delayed rather than
prevented. Governments can spend as much money as they want; they
cannot alter the inevitable course of financial history. While this
may seem like a gloomy prognosis, it is actually a cheerful one
since it accepts the world as it really is rather than attempting
to create a tooth-fairy outlook which cannot possibly come true. If
we think that "we have learned the lessons of the Great
Depression", as Bernanke has repeated on many occasions, then we
will be unprepared for another decade of generally rising
unemployment and declining asset valuations, and we will suffer
accordingly. If we at least know generally what will happen over
the next decade or two regarding real estate, the stock market,
inflation, and everything else, then we can adjust to it most
intelligently to maximize our prosperity and minimize pain. Most
unhappiness comes not from unpleasant events which are known in
advance, but from unexpected ones which come as a surprise.
Choosing delusion over reality only makes the inevitable arrival of
reality that much more difficult to accept.
A TWO-YEAR EQUITY BEAR MARKET HAS PROBABLY BEGUN (January 24,
2010): From January 6, 2010 through January 13, 2010, I sold nearly
all of my equities and equity funds in anticipation of what may be
the most severe global equity bear market since the Great
Depression--even when compared with the 57.7% plunge for the
S&P 500 from October 11, 2007 through March 6, 2009. I bought a
modest quantity of TLT, a fund of U.S. Treasuries averaging 25
years to maturity which was one of the top-performing funds during
the second half of 2008. Most of my money is currently in cash and
its equivalents. I believe the current bear market will persist for
another 1-1/2 to 2-1/2 years.
The community is delayed by three days for non registered users.
FMM.V
Posted by brucewayne on 28th of Sep 2010 at 01:03 am
I've got a nice position now in FMM.V, it's another junior miner that was formerly in the 3 dollar range and now in the 30 cent range. It's breaking out of a nice stage 1 base and the fundamental news flow seems good. Anyone else holding that one?
Best Online Forex Broker
Posted by brucewayne on 10th of Aug 2010 at 11:20 pm
Any opinions out there on who is the best online forex broker? I'm looking for a browser based platform and besides that low commissions and a good user interface and customer support would be nice.
Doesn't it take years or
James Dines Predicts A Buying Panic In Uranium
Posted by brucewayne on 4th of Aug 2010 at 10:49 pm
Doesn't it take years or even decades for a popped bubble to re-inflate again? A.k.a look at the Nasdaq or gold, Nasdaq still hasn't re-inflated and it took gold 20+ years. I think the peak oil theory sounds logical but according to the bubble burst theory oil shouldn't do anything for a long time either.
I used to live in
Housing index....
Posted by brucewayne on 4th of Aug 2010 at 10:42 pm
I used to live in Palm Bay, Florida....I sold my house in 2006 and saved a lot of money! I still look at the MLS website and shake my head how much my old neighborhood has gone down in price.
Yen long term chart looks good
Posted by brucewayne on 16th of Jul 2010 at 12:26 am
Yen has taken a year and a half to break over 115 and now looks poised to do so.
I've got RYSBX in my accounts
Dollar support and replay?
Posted by brucewayne on 15th of Jul 2010 at 12:55 pm
Look at the volume coming into the UUP and the inverse ETFs too, that pickup in volume seems to me to be smart money accumulating.
Personally I buy the single
Double Inverse ETFs - Wasting Asset??
Posted by brucewayne on 5th of Jul 2010 at 12:37 pm
Personally I buy the single ETFs for long term holds, and the leveraged ETFs only for daily or weekly moves. Only when the trend is one direction with minimal volatility will the leveraged ETFs do significantly better than the single ETFs over the same time period. An extreme example is DTO when oil collapsed in 2008, that ETF was phenomenal since oil steadily cratered over a few months. During the credit crisis in 2008 SDS only outperformed SH during a couple extreme downlegs, otherwise it didn't really do much better than it. The simple math behind the gain it takes to offset a loss is why they get chopped up so much in choppy markets.
No I'm talking about the
Long term dollar chart
Posted by brucewayne on 1st of Jul 2010 at 04:26 pm
No I'm talking about the yearly INVERSE head and shoulders pattern that should be bullish for the dollar. I think it measures to about 100 or so.
Long term dollar chart
Posted by brucewayne on 1st of Jul 2010 at 03:56 pm
Matt -- what's your take on the long term dollar chart? Is that a multi-year inverse head and shoulders pattern?
Dollar -- long term swing trade?
Posted by brucewayne on 1st of Jul 2010 at 01:11 am
Is the dollar a long term swing trade again? Looks like it is poised to break out of a multi year inverse head and shoulders pattern to me.
Interesting article
Posted by brucewayne on 17th of Jun 2010 at 02:19 pm
http://www.smartmoneytrackerpremium.net/June_16th.php
I like the idea of the megaphone pattern forming in the future.
RIC, CGR -- two small cap gold stocks breaking out
Posted by brucewayne on 29th of Apr 2010 at 11:17 am
Feb Highs in the Inverse ETFs
Posted by brucewayne on 16th of Mar 2010 at 11:52 pm
When (or If) the Feb highs get taken out in the inverse ETFs, that might be a good time to get short the markets. Seems like we need an established "higher high" first, or at best we're just in Stage 1 of a bearish trend, and at worst we are in the Stage 4 death cycle if you're a bear.
trade ideas
Posted by brucewayne on 8th of Mar 2010 at 11:49 pm
NCT, MPG some of the commercial property stocks have been taking a lot of volume such as BEE
I had a long trade
RF
Posted by brucewayne on 8th of Mar 2010 at 11:47 pm
I had a long trade triggered today on RF. The volume hasn't come in yet but some other regional banks, STI, HBAN, FITB, are all also sitting on resistance so some action could be coming soon.
Two of my favorites are
Favorite "Trading" Books
Posted by brucewayne on 7th of Mar 2010 at 07:16 pm
Two of my favorites are Secrets for Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets by Stan Weinstein and How I Made $2 Million in the Stock Market by Nicholas Darvas. I like the stage analysis stuff by Weinstein and I think that is useful in determining when you should be doing more buying and holding vs. selling and staying out of the market, depending on what stage the market is in. The Darvas story is interesting because it describes how he evolves as a trader and eventually finds a methodology that actually works for him.
trade ideas
Posted by brucewayne on 17th of Feb 2010 at 09:27 pm
ACAT, CEU, FRG
I think best case scenario
Two Different Views of Gold
Posted by brucewayne on 28th of Jan 2010 at 10:59 pm
I think best case scenario on gold is a trading range develops, worse case we get more downside than you might expect. This has been probably the longest rally for gold bullion yet in terms of time duration too so it's possible that gold might enter a trading range that lasts until the fall, and that would coincide nicely with a countertrend rally in the dollar.
www.truecontrarian.com interesting comments
Posted by brucewayne on 24th of Jan 2010 at 10:12 pm
BERNANKE'S GRAND DELUSION (January 24, 2010): Ben Bernanke is convinced that if he had been alive in 1929, he would have been able to entirely prevent the Great Depression, and he is attempting to prove that by doing over the past couple of years what he would have done eight decades earlier. Unfortunately (or fortunately, depending upon your point of view), he is going to discover that he can only make a minor impact on the financial markets--and not at all in the way he had anticipated. He cannot possibly affect the rate of unemployment over the next decade, or the rate of U.S. economic growth. He can moderately increase the intensity to which inflation will surge higher later in this decade, and he is in fact doing exactly that without even realizing the consequences of his actions.
Even if all of the world's governments got together and reached a unanimous decision about how to proceed to "save" the financial markets, the future is already cast--not in stone, perhaps, but in very thick mud. We are on the verge of a major worldwide equity bear market. Even with the high degree of global economic coordination and synchronized stimulus that currently exists, nothing can have a significant impact on the future since even a well-capitalized, well-connected, and well-organized organization cannot overcome the pattern of proven economic cycles which has existed for thousands of years, and which will continue to exist for many more thousands of years assuming that humans continue to exist on this planet.
The combination of the giddy prosperity at the end of the twentieth century and the housing bubble from the beginning of this century can only be resolved through a typical era of stagnation. While the current era of stagnation which began in March 2000 will almost surely be worse than 1966-1982, it will probably be quite a bit less severe than 1929-1949 which included the Great Depression, and it will also likely be less severe than the worst stagnation eras of the 19th century. In other words, we are living through your typical, garden-variety stagnation. There's nothing special about it; if we all lived to be 500 years of age, then it would be "same old, same old" and we would sit around talking about how it was 1873 all over again. However, since we have shorter lifespans and almost no one even knows about previous eras of stagnation except for the Great Depression itself--which is treated as a form of extinct species like a Tyrannosaurus Rex--then we act as if we were the first generation in history to have to struggle with the problems which exist today. While much has of course changed in society, culture, and science through the millennia, the current era of stagnation would have been familiar to everyone from Julius Caesar to Ulysses S. Grant. If most of today's investors think that today's economic climate is unique or unusual, then they simply have either not studied economic history or fell asleep in class.
Those like Ben Bernanke who are intimately familiar with financial history, but who believe that if they had lived in 1870 or 1930 then it would have turned out entirely differently, are living a delusional existence. In the Book of Genesis, Joseph is able to accurately forecast an upcoming severe era of stagnation, but is not so foolish or arrogant to think he can prevent it. Instead, Joseph takes the correct actions during the previous era of prosperity to essentially perform the equivalent of selling short equities and buying U.S. Treasuries, so that Egypt prospers enormously when stagnation arrives. In contrast, the rest of the world suffers from its refusal to recognize proven historic patterns, which even then had no doubt already been well established. If Bernanke thinks he can outdo Joseph, then the next decade will determine his proper place in history. If Bernanke is still being compared with anyone named Joseph in 2020, then it will be the Joseph who encouraged his Jonestown followers to drink lethal kool-aid.
If everyone in your neighborhood were to max out on all of their credit cards, then it would certainly appear to be a flourishing place. However, problems would simply be delayed rather than prevented. Governments can spend as much money as they want; they cannot alter the inevitable course of financial history. While this may seem like a gloomy prognosis, it is actually a cheerful one since it accepts the world as it really is rather than attempting to create a tooth-fairy outlook which cannot possibly come true. If we think that "we have learned the lessons of the Great Depression", as Bernanke has repeated on many occasions, then we will be unprepared for another decade of generally rising unemployment and declining asset valuations, and we will suffer accordingly. If we at least know generally what will happen over the next decade or two regarding real estate, the stock market, inflation, and everything else, then we can adjust to it most intelligently to maximize our prosperity and minimize pain. Most unhappiness comes not from unpleasant events which are known in advance, but from unexpected ones which come as a surprise. Choosing delusion over reality only makes the inevitable arrival of reality that much more difficult to accept.
A TWO-YEAR EQUITY BEAR MARKET HAS PROBABLY BEGUN (January 24, 2010): From January 6, 2010 through January 13, 2010, I sold nearly all of my equities and equity funds in anticipation of what may be the most severe global equity bear market since the Great Depression--even when compared with the 57.7% plunge for the S&P 500 from October 11, 2007 through March 6, 2009. I bought a modest quantity of TLT, a fund of U.S. Treasuries averaging 25 years to maturity which was one of the top-performing funds during the second half of 2008. Most of my money is currently in cash and its equivalents. I believe the current bear market will persist for another 1-1/2 to 2-1/2 years.
CPST nice volume pre-market
Posted by brucewayne on 12th of Jan 2010 at 08:58 am
CPST nice volume pre-market