If you look at a weekly chart of
the $SPX with the 13 and 34 EMA, it seems we are about to get a
crossover. Also the MACD (13,34,1) has crossed the
zero line. The Slow Stochastics (60) is closing in on the 50
line. How does this bode for a Bull signal, looking at the
past market indicators? Seems these have market the beginning
and end of bull and bear markets. Can you address this in
tonights newsletter?
In my opinion it does not. First off, the MA's are too
steep and thus subject to a big whipsaw, just like you saw in late
1997, see the chart. Just like the EOD mechanical systems in
the Premium Content section; anyone who has traded those systems
know that you have a high probability of whipsaws when the MA's
move up or down strongly in a V-ish fashion instead of coming out
of a base.
Also, when I looked back over many years, the 50 and 200 EMA
crossovers worked better than the 13/34 week crossovers and the
50/200 EMA are not crossing one another.
However, again what I do not like is the vertical nature of the
MA's off the bottom. Long term trends in the market are
defined by the larger degree wave count, which still tell us that
this is a large bear market rally instead of a new fresh bull
market. I still view this is a large degree bear market
rally. Remember our targets for the SPX since March as been
1000 t0 1100. Well, since the SPX has not even made it to our
first price target, why would I change my long term analysis
yet? Back in March I said that the market would rally up high
enough and far enough that it would cause the masses to think that
a new bull market has started....well that's exactly what we are
setting.
However, if you disagree and are dead set about the 13/34
weekly EMA crossover or 50/200 day EMA crossovers, then fine, but
you MUST adhere to discipline and change if the MA's were to
whipsaw and crossback to the downside.
When I looked at the past 80 years in the market over the
weekend, I noticed that the MA crossovers worked well during
secular bull markets and NOT during secular bear markets.
$SPX Major Trend
Posted by fwhahne on 2nd of Aug 2009 at 04:20 pm
If you look at a weekly chart of the $SPX with the 13 and 34 EMA, it seems we are about to get a crossover. Also the MACD (13,34,1) has crossed the zero line. The Slow Stochastics (60) is closing in on the 50 line. How does this bode for a Bull signal, looking at the past market indicators? Seems these have market the beginning and end of bull and bear markets. Can you address this in tonights newsletter?
fhahne
In my opinion it does
Posted by matt on 2nd of Aug 2009 at 10:49 pm
In my opinion it does not. First off, the MA's are too steep and thus subject to a big whipsaw, just like you saw in late 1997, see the chart. Just like the EOD mechanical systems in the Premium Content section; anyone who has traded those systems know that you have a high probability of whipsaws when the MA's move up or down strongly in a V-ish fashion instead of coming out of a base.
Also, when I looked back over many years, the 50 and 200 EMA crossovers worked better than the 13/34 week crossovers and the 50/200 EMA are not crossing one another.
SPX daily with 50/200 EMA
However, again what I do not like is the vertical nature of the MA's off the bottom. Long term trends in the market are defined by the larger degree wave count, which still tell us that this is a large bear market rally instead of a new fresh bull market. I still view this is a large degree bear market rally. Remember our targets for the SPX since March as been 1000 t0 1100. Well, since the SPX has not even made it to our first price target, why would I change my long term analysis yet? Back in March I said that the market would rally up high enough and far enough that it would cause the masses to think that a new bull market has started....well that's exactly what we are setting.
However, if you disagree and are dead set about the 13/34 weekly EMA crossover or 50/200 day EMA crossovers, then fine, but you MUST adhere to discipline and change if the MA's were to whipsaw and crossback to the downside.
When I looked at the past 80 years in the market over the weekend, I noticed that the MA crossovers worked well during secular bull markets and NOT during secular bear markets.
Here's a chart of the Dow from the 1970's : This is an example of when the MA's would whipsaw you to death.
chart
Posted by rjay on 2nd of Aug 2009 at 04:42 pm
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p64949201591
chart
Posted by rrflandy on 2nd of Aug 2009 at 10:12 pm
OK; I see the SMA's have crossed; usually we use the EMA's which have not crossed yet.
$SPX Major Trend
Posted by fwhahne on 2nd of Aug 2009 at 08:28 pm
Matt and Steve use the 13 EMA and 34 EMA ( exponential moving averages) not the simple moving averages for the crossover. But thanks.
fhahne
corrected
Posted by rjay on 2nd of Aug 2009 at 09:19 pm
oops, thanks for correcting me...here are the ema's...
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p95148454812