You know what it funny, is that my business (I own a cafe) is
booming on furlough days, when the state workers are of they all
come in for breakfast, I feel for the businesses that rely on them
though, for many near the capital that is there main source, open
only M-F. But in the long run Cali is in trouble.
Posted by leepartacz on 11th of Jul 2009 at 12:32 pm
Everyone is watching how this gets resolved. There are some
states that have a larger budget deficit in % terms than CA. If the
Federal Gov't bails them out there will be a stampede by other
states to line up for Federal Aid. I'm from Michigan and I'm sure
we'll have a seat right up front. I think I read there are about 32
states running fairly large deficits. So, what happens in CA will
probably have a ripple affect across the nation one way or the
other. "I feel your pain".
Posted by bullbull on 11th of Jul 2009 at 03:10 pm
guys,
Why everyone is so certain that there is a "next big leg
down"?
You can always draw on a chart with possibilities, but the "next
big leg down" is NOT guaranteed unless you have a crystal ball.
of course, If you are day trader, you probably don't care, since
you will be out of the market everyday, and it is random in term of
how the next day will go...
no there is no crystal ball of course. quite simply, the
long term charts tell us that's the most likely analysis i.e. that
this is a bear market rally instead of a bull market. Could
they be wrong, sure they can, but the probability favors a bear
market rally instead. Technical analysis is about
probabilities, not certainties
matt -- bullbull was asking how we can be so
certainabout
another leg down -- and you hit the nail on the head -- we are NOT
certain that there will be another leg down -- but we ARE certain
that the PROBABILITY is that there will be another leg down..
And we trade on probabilities.
I am certain that there will be a next leg down for many
reasons. One reason is that virtually every economist and
analyst who predicted this financial crisis in the first place,
predicts that it is not over, and there are many vaild reasons why
this is so. If you're really interested in this question and
not just arguing for the sake of arguing, you have to do some
reading. Second, for myself I see clearly that if this is the
worst financial crisis in a century -- as EVERYONE agrees it
is, even the people who say its almost over -- it cannot possibly
be over. There is still way too much optimism and not nearly
enough pain and fear.
I never read Money magazine but just picked up a current copy
yesterday, to see what mainstream America is thinking and doing --
and I am AMAZED. There are at least five articles in this one
issue telling people to be invested in stocks now. There is
one article about a guy with big financial problems and one part of
the advice to him is to get his money that is not in stocks,
into stocks NOW. Wow. This is just ridiculous optimism
and its coming from the most popular magazine about personal
finance. This is also how I know there will be another leg
down. When Money magazine is telling people to be cautious
about buying stocks right now -- then the bear market will be
over. Just like the Time cover story on the housing boom
marked the top of the housing market -- right to the month.
You are right to question day trading. Most people fail at
it. But that's not because it doesn't work -- its because its
difficult. And what is difficult about it is not that its
rocket science, but simply that it is a process of constantly
playing the odds and only playing when the odds are strongly in
your favor -- and this requires discipline, patience and
consistency, and control over one's emotions -- which are difficult
qualities for most people to cultivate in themselves, especially
around money. Try day trading and you will quickly learn
whether or not you possess those qualities, and to what
degree.
Posted by bullbull on 12th of Jul 2009 at 10:31 pm
"I am certain that there will be a next leg down for many
reasons. One reason is that virtually every economist and
analyst who predicted this financial crisis in the first place,
predicts that it is no over".
first, it is wrong to use "certain" in predicting market, it
is naive.
second, you can't trust any economist on predicting the market,
the economy and market is not in sync. the economy can still be
bad, but a bull market can be born way early than economy
recover.
third, let me just show you some example on several great "bear"
who turns bullish
March 9th is a "generation" low, in Kass' s words, it is a darn
good entry point. Of course, nobody knew for sure. But trying to be
a fake "contrarian" and thinking the panic is not yet over is just
what majority people is doing, as shown by the cash level on the
side line.
anyway, I would like to quit the discussion. Just pay a little
attention to the fundamental, not just draw lines on the chart and
trying to predict the market going, it is not going to pay off in a
big way.
you are arguing that there are no certainties in the market, and
I totally agree with you, but per your argument you need to follow
your own logic, you should instead be saying "well I think
this is a bull market because of A,B, and C and therefore I
disagree with you guys, but I could be wrong because there are no
certainties". But instead you seem to be arguing with
certainty that this is a bull market, even though you said there
are no certainties. You are contradicting your logic.
For me the charts say otherwise, I think to odds favor this as
being a bear market rally. Again that is not certain, there
are only probabilites in the market, but that's what I see as being
the most probable case based on my analysis. Just like in
quantum physics, i.e. a particle does not have a set postion or
velocity, there are only probabilties, not
certainties.
Posted by bullbull on 13th of Jul 2009 at 01:36 am
I'll just list the reasoning for bullish case:
(a). Oct/Nov VIX spike is hisotric spike in record, the March
low associated with lower VIX, it shows market volitilty abating.
Does anyone imagine another LEH failing give global financial
system a shoke? Very unlikely.
(b). This is not a "Great Depression"! The US economy was cut in
half during the 1929-1932, do you imagine this case happen again,
NO. Even the most bearish economist predict slow recovery in 2010.
Other than great depression, all the rest of the crash is %50. This
time is NOT different from other time. We've seen worst times.
(c). The P/E10 is ~12 in March low. However, there is enough
reasons that why it is not as long as 1930 and 1970~ bear market
low. For example, 1970 market has huge interest rate, and no
monteory policy being applied. So we can argue you won't see signal
digital P/E10 this time.
(d). don't underestimate government money printing and stimulus,
it buys time for economy recovery.
(e). this is global economy, even we have a sluggish 2009, the
world wide economy is back on its footing 2010.
Could we in a new bull market? maybe, but we also could be on a
choppy trending market, and you can expect normal return. It is
very unlikely we will hit a March low again. Just my opinion, based
on some fundamental reasoning.
People always try to be "contrarian", it is hard to be a "real
one". When you see most of people in blog is bearish.. you get to
be wondering: which side is actually the "true" contrarian.
I don't know how EW can forecast the future. Just try to unwind
the historic Dow and S&P chart to 1970 (if you use telechart),
and try to predict what will happen, you will find it is never easy
to predict what NEXT.
Posted by shamutooth on 13th of Jul 2009 at 09:24 am
Bullbull,Why not just make it simple? Ignore everyone's opinion
because that's all it is and use Matt's KISS 13/34 crossover
on the weekly chart.It's worked very well going way back to even
the Great Depression.So,if this is going to be a horrible time as
in past post credit bubble contractions,you're protected.If we go
up from here,buy the cross and then hold for possibly years.It's
that simple and you get best of both worlds without guessing
which camp to be in.
Posted by rgoodwin on 12th of Jul 2009 at 11:03 pm
bullbull, there were quite a few replies to your posts from the
other day and all you come up with is a pointing to some economists
and their call to the end of the crash. Then you say you want to
pay attention to the fundamentals and not just draw a few lines on
the charts. FWIW - BPT has made a lot of people a lot of money by
drawing a few lines on the charts. Personally, I have traded from
those lines and damn happy I did - they beat the hell out of any
fundamental I could have found anywhere. The fundamentals don't
work in this kind of market. That's what mutual fund money managers
always talk about and if you can show me one of those guys that has
made thier clients money in the past 18 months - equivalent to the
technically analyzed and determined trade recommendations of Matt
and Steve, then I will buy you dinner. Again, I think you are maybe
a trader in a mess and needing some help and guidance. Best to keep
arguments to a minimum and take a couple weeks to learn from some
of the best in the business.
"I think you are maybe a trader in a mess and needing some help
and guidance. Best to keep arguments to a minimum and take a couple
weeks to learn from some of the best in the business.
Best of luck to you."
i'm not sure how you came up with this conclusion. I've
reviewed the posted video link from last year to this year, and I
have to see it is like chicken little running scared day by day, do
you loss your sleep some times. if you are a day-trader and have
time to stare at your monitor (maybe multiple monitors) tick by
tick, you can trade (scalp) the market this way, maybe you can
trade a relative small size portfolio to make some money.but I'm
not intended to spend my life in front of the monitor and hear my
own a heart beating.
I personally have more captial than I can trade day by day,
(>500K), I have to allocate certain amount to invest, which I
did in Feb/March, and they definitely beat the day-trading profit I
can have. I made about 10~20% one year even after I tried my
best.
lots of people claim they made a boat load of money in the
past bear market by following chart, could you elaborate your
portofolio size, and % gain? If it is (<50K), please ignore
that. how much you gain YTD? Please show me the NUMBER!
I'm really curious to see majority of people here can make money
this way, if it is true, why you are not the gain who can manange
50B $ like Jeremy Grantham?
Posted by rgoodwin on 13th of Jul 2009 at 12:28 pm
It is not deleted - it was reformatted - simply click through
the toggles and you will find the reply. Sometimes on longer posts,
I think Matt tries to shorten them up by putting them on a toggle
or attachment. But on what you just posted - you can click the
toggles - it is there. FWIW - I do not intend to reply.
Posted by shamutooth on 12th of Jul 2009 at 11:08 am
With a few members of my family in the banking business,one
thing continues to jump out at us almost universally. That one
thing is that NOBODY has sold any of their stocks/mutual funds
unless they've been forced to sell to cover living expenses. This
is not how bear markets come to an end. We are not seeing any
public capitulation,just the recurring theme of holding long term
and the markets will come back. It's just amazing to me that most
are down 50% and have not sold,and are not even thinking of
selling! Another thing they're seeing is that everyone who can is
deleveraging/consolidating like crazy,and are vowing not to
get in the credit trap again. Everything is just so consistant
with past historical examples of post credit bubble
contractions that it's just frightening to me what the future will
bring.
Posted by jcomptonod on 11th of Jul 2009 at 08:48 pm
I suspect that you have an interest in technical analysis or you
probably wouldn't have found us. Not everybody on this site
is a day trader. Many of us are swing or longer position
traders. I've got to say that the longer you trade the
more you tend to move to shorter time frames, however. But,
no matter. You've stumbled on to the best site on the net. I
will warn you that if you open your mind you will increase
your knowledge 5 fold or more within a few months. Matt and
Steve are two of the finest technicians around.
Start reviewing the newsletters and intra week updates.
You'll start learning immediately. Pay up for your
subscription and then hang around like many of us have.
Start learning how to really make money in the market.
You can ignore the day trading for now, just start
learning.
ps- just so you know, there are also a lot of day traders
here, that make a lot of money.
Posted by junkmaylbox on 12th of Jul 2009 at 12:04 am
John said it politely, but let me be more explicit in what we
see. You try to denigrade those able ones who can day trade by
making yourself right about impossibility of day trading. You try
to disparage the fundamentals that are underneath the action of the
market because you don't see or don't believe it. You try to make a
noise because ... let me guess .. cannot trade with profits. This
action is very mechanical and it comes from your mind, which is a
computing machine that keeps asking questions for the sake of
questions. It is programmed that way. Mind makes an excellent slave
and a lousy master. Your choices are : to keep being a slave to
your mind and face public ridicule, or shut the f***ker up and try
to look for yourself without its help. Only if you are capable of
the latter you could survive as a trader and be accepted by this
site. Good luck!
Posted by rgoodwin on 11th of Jul 2009 at 05:45 pm
OKAY BULLBULL - I just saw 3 consecutive posts from you, each of
which is proclaiming the risks of DayTrading - and I think at least
two of them discuss "guessing" about trades to take.
Well, you have not been on this blog very long, and I have no
idea what your trading experience is. But trading - whether it be
day trading, swing trading, or long term, um, investing, should not
involve a level of risk one cannot afford, and it certainly should
not invlove GUESSING of any degree.
Trading has science attached to it - if you trade from a TA
perspective. If you trade based on fundamentals - that's a
different kind of science so you need to determine how you prefer
to trade. guess one could maybe do a combination - I don;t know - I
don't do much FUNDY research.
I assure you that even as a realatively new trader (less than 2
years) I have been able to learn and hone my skills all while
continuing to increase my portfolio. And I would venture an
educated comment that the vast majority of the people on this site
also make money. I don;t think there are any traders here that
simply GUESS at what their next trade will be. Are there risks -
YES. But you should be trading only with funds you can afford to
put at risk. And you need to have a PLAN before you ever put
anyting on a trade.
I wonder if the article you posted and then the follow up
comments, are not somehow a cry for help on your part.? If you need
some help learning - please just ask for it. I personally hate it
when folks want to tell us of all the BAD things that can hapen to
you as a trader. Making money at trading also is much easier when
one maintains and truly believes in a positive result from his/her
trades. If you are going to trade when at the very start, you
belive "MOST PEOPLE LOSE MONEY", I assure you - YOU will be in that
category of people. This is not because you don't have winning
trades, but such a mindset makes you take unnecessary trades,
unnecessary losses, and then you fail to let winners actually make
you some money. Losses are part of trading and you must know they
will exist. But gains are also part of trading and plenty of those
happen as well. YOu have to learn how each should be treated in
your trading style or mentality. The only people I have heard that
have been wiped out or lost a lot of money are:
1. Those traders who failed to have a plan and gain skill and
knowledeg and 2. Those folks that left their money sitting in a
mutual fund and waited for it to shrink by 50% before they finally
threw in the towel.
We are all here to help you bullbull. Sign up and become a
member and you'll likely discover, articles and negative commentary
about traders are rather useless at BPT. Best of luck to you.
BPT is the best trading community on the web and I encourage you to
spend a few pennies for your membership and learn why.
Posted by myleshar on 11th of Jul 2009 at 04:27 pm
I believe largely because of cycles and Elliott Wave, but also
other indicators that normally coincide with major stock
bottoms.... like low P/E ratios
Newsletter
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California vs Texas
Posted by leepartacz on 11th of Jul 2009 at 12:09 am
The Economist: California & Texas can learn from each other.
California Furloughs
Posted by arissaj on 11th of Jul 2009 at 01:19 am
You know what it funny, is that my business (I own a cafe) is booming on furlough days, when the state workers are of they all come in for breakfast, I feel for the businesses that rely on them though, for many near the capital that is there main source, open only M-F. But in the long run Cali is in trouble.
Everyone is watching how this
Posted by leepartacz on 11th of Jul 2009 at 12:32 pm
Everyone is watching how this gets resolved. There are some states that have a larger budget deficit in % terms than CA. If the Federal Gov't bails them out there will be a stampede by other states to line up for Federal Aid. I'm from Michigan and I'm sure we'll have a seat right up front. I think I read there are about 32 states running fairly large deficits. So, what happens in CA will probably have a ripple affect across the nation one way or the other. "I feel your pain".
Next Leg Down?!
Posted by bullbull on 11th of Jul 2009 at 03:10 pm
guys,
Why everyone is so certain that there is a "next big leg down"?
You can always draw on a chart with possibilities, but the "next big leg down" is NOT guaranteed unless you have a crystal ball.
of course, If you are day trader, you probably don't care, since you will be out of the market everyday, and it is random in term of how the next day will go...
no there is no crystal
Posted by matt on 12th of Jul 2009 at 11:56 am
no there is no crystal ball of course. quite simply, the long term charts tell us that's the most likely analysis i.e. that this is a bear market rally instead of a bull market. Could they be wrong, sure they can, but the probability favors a bear market rally instead. Technical analysis is about probabilities, not certainties
matt -- bullbull was asking
Posted by Michael on 12th of Jul 2009 at 12:05 pm
matt -- bullbull was asking how we can be so certainabout another leg down -- and you hit the nail on the head -- we are NOT certain that there will be another leg down -- but we ARE certain that the PROBABILITY is that there will be another leg down.. And we trade on probabilities.
next leg down and day trading?
Posted by Michael on 12th of Jul 2009 at 10:07 am
I am certain that there will be a next leg down for many reasons. One reason is that virtually every economist and analyst who predicted this financial crisis in the first place, predicts that it is not over, and there are many vaild reasons why this is so. If you're really interested in this question and not just arguing for the sake of arguing, you have to do some reading. Second, for myself I see clearly that if this is the worst financial crisis in a century -- as EVERYONE agrees it is, even the people who say its almost over -- it cannot possibly be over. There is still way too much optimism and not nearly enough pain and fear.
I never read Money magazine but just picked up a current copy yesterday, to see what mainstream America is thinking and doing -- and I am AMAZED. There are at least five articles in this one issue telling people to be invested in stocks now. There is one article about a guy with big financial problems and one part of the advice to him is to get his money that is not in stocks, into stocks NOW. Wow. This is just ridiculous optimism and its coming from the most popular magazine about personal finance. This is also how I know there will be another leg down. When Money magazine is telling people to be cautious about buying stocks right now -- then the bear market will be over. Just like the Time cover story on the housing boom marked the top of the housing market -- right to the month.
You are right to question day trading. Most people fail at it. But that's not because it doesn't work -- its because its difficult. And what is difficult about it is not that its rocket science, but simply that it is a process of constantly playing the odds and only playing when the odds are strongly in your favor -- and this requires discipline, patience and consistency, and control over one's emotions -- which are difficult qualities for most people to cultivate in themselves, especially around money. Try day trading and you will quickly learn whether or not you possess those qualities, and to what degree.
"I am certain that there
Posted by bullbull on 12th of Jul 2009 at 10:31 pm
"I am certain that there will be a next leg down for many reasons. One reason is that virtually every economist and analyst who predicted this financial crisis in the first place, predicts that it is no over".
first, it is wrong to use "certain" in predicting market, it is naive.
second, you can't trust any economist on predicting the market, the economy and market is not in sync. the economy can still be bad, but a bull market can be born way early than economy recover.
third, let me just show you some example on several great "bear" who turns bullish
(1). doug kass calls the bottom
(2). one of the best in business : Jeremy Grantham calls re-invest when terrified:
(3). Barry Ritholtz calls rally
March 9th is a "generation" low, in Kass' s words, it is a darn good entry point. Of course, nobody knew for sure. But trying to be a fake "contrarian" and thinking the panic is not yet over is just what majority people is doing, as shown by the cash level on the side line.
anyway, I would like to quit the discussion. Just pay a little attention to the fundamental, not just draw lines on the chart and trying to predict the market going, it is not going to pay off in a big way.
you are arguing that there
Posted by matt on 13th of Jul 2009 at 12:15 am
you are arguing that there are no certainties in the market, and I totally agree with you, but per your argument you need to follow your own logic, you should instead be saying "well I think this is a bull market because of A,B, and C and therefore I disagree with you guys, but I could be wrong because there are no certainties". But instead you seem to be arguing with certainty that this is a bull market, even though you said there are no certainties. You are contradicting your logic.
For me the charts say otherwise, I think to odds favor this as being a bear market rally. Again that is not certain, there are only probabilites in the market, but that's what I see as being the most probable case based on my analysis. Just like in quantum physics, i.e. a particle does not have a set postion or velocity, there are only probabilties, not certainties.
"Just like in quantum physics,
Posted by jtverr on 13th of Jul 2009 at 07:07 am
"Just like in quantum physics, i.e. a particle does not have a set postion or velocity, there are only probabilties, not certainties."
Matt,
Don't forget the 6-factor formula for neutrons!!!
lolol yeah I forgot about
Posted by matt on 13th of Jul 2009 at 07:27 am
lolol yeah I forgot about that one! It's been a while since I had those classes
Ok, my A, B, C on Bull market case
Posted by bullbull on 13th of Jul 2009 at 01:36 am
I'll just list the reasoning for bullish case:
(a). Oct/Nov VIX spike is hisotric spike in record, the March low associated with lower VIX, it shows market volitilty abating. Does anyone imagine another LEH failing give global financial system a shoke? Very unlikely.
(b). This is not a "Great Depression"! The US economy was cut in half during the 1929-1932, do you imagine this case happen again, NO. Even the most bearish economist predict slow recovery in 2010. Other than great depression, all the rest of the crash is %50. This time is NOT different from other time. We've seen worst times.
(c). The P/E10 is ~12 in March low. However, there is enough reasons that why it is not as long as 1930 and 1970~ bear market low. For example, 1970 market has huge interest rate, and no monteory policy being applied. So we can argue you won't see signal digital P/E10 this time.
(d). don't underestimate government money printing and stimulus, it buys time for economy recovery.
(e). this is global economy, even we have a sluggish 2009, the world wide economy is back on its footing 2010.
Could we in a new bull market? maybe, but we also could be on a choppy trending market, and you can expect normal return. It is very unlikely we will hit a March low again. Just my opinion, based on some fundamental reasoning.
People always try to be "contrarian", it is hard to be a "real one". When you see most of people in blog is bearish.. you get to be wondering: which side is actually the "true" contrarian.
I don't know how EW can forecast the future. Just try to unwind the historic Dow and S&P chart to 1970 (if you use telechart), and try to predict what will happen, you will find it is never easy to predict what NEXT.
Bullbull,Why not just make it
Posted by shamutooth on 13th of Jul 2009 at 09:24 am
Bullbull,Why not just make it simple? Ignore everyone's opinion because that's all it is and use Matt's KISS 13/34 crossover on the weekly chart.It's worked very well going way back to even the Great Depression.So,if this is going to be a horrible time as in past post credit bubble contractions,you're protected.If we go up from here,buy the cross and then hold for possibly years.It's that simple and you get best of both worlds without guessing which camp to be in.
discussion ended. the next time
Posted by Michael on 12th of Jul 2009 at 11:06 pm
discussion ended. the next time stock prices hit the March 9th lows -- which they will -- you load up. good luck with that.
bullbull, there were quite a
Posted by rgoodwin on 12th of Jul 2009 at 11:03 pm
bullbull, there were quite a few replies to your posts from the other day and all you come up with is a pointing to some economists and their call to the end of the crash. Then you say you want to pay attention to the fundamentals and not just draw a few lines on the charts. FWIW - BPT has made a lot of people a lot of money by drawing a few lines on the charts. Personally, I have traded from those lines and damn happy I did - they beat the hell out of any fundamental I could have found anywhere. The fundamentals don't work in this kind of market. That's what mutual fund money managers always talk about and if you can show me one of those guys that has made thier clients money in the past 18 months - equivalent to the technically analyzed and determined trade recommendations of Matt and Steve, then I will buy you dinner. Again, I think you are maybe a trader in a mess and needing some help and guidance. Best to keep arguments to a minimum and take a couple weeks to learn from some of the best in the business.
Best of luck to you.
Title: reply "I think you are
Posted by bullbull on 12th of Jul 2009 at 11:31 pm
"I think you are maybe a trader in a mess and needing some help and guidance. Best to keep arguments to a minimum and take a couple weeks to learn from some of the best in the business.
Best of luck to you."
i'm not sure how you came up with this conclusion. I've reviewed the posted video link from last year to this year, and I have to see it is like chicken little running scared day by day, do you loss your sleep some times. if you are a day-trader and have time to stare at your monitor (maybe multiple monitors) tick by tick, you can trade (scalp) the market this way, maybe you can trade a relative small size portfolio to make some money.but I'm not intended to spend my life in front of the monitor and hear my own a heart beating.
I personally have more captial than I can trade day by day, (>500K), I have to allocate certain amount to invest, which I did in Feb/March, and they definitely beat the day-trading profit I can have. I made about 10~20% one year even after I tried my best.
lots of people claim they made a boat load of money in the past bear market by following chart, could you elaborate your portofolio size, and % gain? If it is (<50K), please ignore that. how much you gain YTD? Please show me the NUMBER!
I'm really curious to see majority of people here can make money this way, if it is true, why you are not the gain who can manange 50B $ like Jeremy Grantham?
Guys let's keep the blog
Posted by matt on 12th of Jul 2009 at 11:39 pm
Guys let's keep the blog conducive to trading ideas, and analysis please! The Blog is a good place, let's not let it degrade into pissing matches.
Why my post is deleted?
Posted by bullbull on 13th of Jul 2009 at 12:14 pm
My reply to rgoodwin is delted, why? This is not free of speech forum?
http://www.fluctu8.com/media/24742/39506/
Here is what the chart telling you in the verge of the bear market... :)
Your post was not deleted,
Posted by matt on 13th of Jul 2009 at 12:30 pm
Your post was not deleted, look again, it was consensed to an expanding title
bullbull
Posted by rgoodwin on 13th of Jul 2009 at 12:28 pm
It is not deleted - it was reformatted - simply click through the toggles and you will find the reply. Sometimes on longer posts, I think Matt tries to shorten them up by putting them on a toggle or attachment. But on what you just posted - you can click the toggles - it is there. FWIW - I do not intend to reply.
With a few members of
Posted by shamutooth on 12th of Jul 2009 at 11:08 am
With a few members of my family in the banking business,one thing continues to jump out at us almost universally. That one thing is that NOBODY has sold any of their stocks/mutual funds unless they've been forced to sell to cover living expenses. This is not how bear markets come to an end. We are not seeing any public capitulation,just the recurring theme of holding long term and the markets will come back. It's just amazing to me that most are down 50% and have not sold,and are not even thinking of selling! Another thing they're seeing is that everyone who can is deleveraging/consolidating like crazy,and are vowing not to get in the credit trap again. Everything is just so consistant with past historical examples of post credit bubble contractions that it's just frightening to me what the future will bring.
Bullbull
Posted by jcomptonod on 11th of Jul 2009 at 08:48 pm
I suspect that you have an interest in technical analysis or you probably wouldn't have found us. Not everybody on this site is a day trader. Many of us are swing or longer position traders. I've got to say that the longer you trade the more you tend to move to shorter time frames, however. But, no matter. You've stumbled on to the best site on the net. I will warn you that if you open your mind you will increase your knowledge 5 fold or more within a few months. Matt and Steve are two of the finest technicians around.
Start reviewing the newsletters and intra week updates. You'll start learning immediately. Pay up for your subscription and then hang around like many of us have. Start learning how to really make money in the market. You can ignore the day trading for now, just start learning.
ps- just so you know, there are also a lot of day traders here, that make a lot of money.
all the best,
john
bullbull's mind
Posted by junkmaylbox on 12th of Jul 2009 at 12:04 am
John said it politely, but let me be more explicit in what we see. You try to denigrade those able ones who can day trade by making yourself right about impossibility of day trading. You try to disparage the fundamentals that are underneath the action of the market because you don't see or don't believe it. You try to make a noise because ... let me guess .. cannot trade with profits. This action is very mechanical and it comes from your mind, which is a computing machine that keeps asking questions for the sake of questions. It is programmed that way. Mind makes an excellent slave and a lousy master. Your choices are : to keep being a slave to your mind and face public ridicule, or shut the f***ker up and try to look for yourself without its help. Only if you are capable of the latter you could survive as a trader and be accepted by this site. Good luck!
bullbull
Posted by rgoodwin on 11th of Jul 2009 at 05:45 pm
OKAY BULLBULL - I just saw 3 consecutive posts from you, each of which is proclaiming the risks of DayTrading - and I think at least two of them discuss "guessing" about trades to take.
Well, you have not been on this blog very long, and I have no idea what your trading experience is. But trading - whether it be day trading, swing trading, or long term, um, investing, should not involve a level of risk one cannot afford, and it certainly should not invlove GUESSING of any degree.
Trading has science attached to it - if you trade from a TA perspective. If you trade based on fundamentals - that's a different kind of science so you need to determine how you prefer to trade. guess one could maybe do a combination - I don;t know - I don't do much FUNDY research.
I assure you that even as a realatively new trader (less than 2 years) I have been able to learn and hone my skills all while continuing to increase my portfolio. And I would venture an educated comment that the vast majority of the people on this site also make money. I don;t think there are any traders here that simply GUESS at what their next trade will be. Are there risks - YES. But you should be trading only with funds you can afford to put at risk. And you need to have a PLAN before you ever put anyting on a trade.
I wonder if the article you posted and then the follow up comments, are not somehow a cry for help on your part.? If you need some help learning - please just ask for it. I personally hate it when folks want to tell us of all the BAD things that can hapen to you as a trader. Making money at trading also is much easier when one maintains and truly believes in a positive result from his/her trades. If you are going to trade when at the very start, you belive "MOST PEOPLE LOSE MONEY", I assure you - YOU will be in that category of people. This is not because you don't have winning trades, but such a mindset makes you take unnecessary trades, unnecessary losses, and then you fail to let winners actually make you some money. Losses are part of trading and you must know they will exist. But gains are also part of trading and plenty of those happen as well. YOu have to learn how each should be treated in your trading style or mentality. The only people I have heard that have been wiped out or lost a lot of money are:
1. Those traders who failed to have a plan and gain skill and knowledeg and 2. Those folks that left their money sitting in a mutual fund and waited for it to shrink by 50% before they finally threw in the towel.
We are all here to help you bullbull. Sign up and become a member and you'll likely discover, articles and negative commentary about traders are rather useless at BPT. Best of luck to you. BPT is the best trading community on the web and I encourage you to spend a few pennies for your membership and learn why.
I believe largely because of
Posted by myleshar on 11th of Jul 2009 at 04:27 pm
I believe largely because of cycles and Elliott Wave, but also other indicators that normally coincide with major stock bottoms.... like low P/E ratios