http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/stocks/commentary/editorial/3-Signs-You-Are-Overtrading-81676.cfm

Many aspiring traders don't reach professional levels because they overtrade. They feel the more they trade, the more chances they will have to make money

. This is incorrect.

Here are the following three ways to diagnose whether or not you're overtrading. Here's what non-successful traders do and you want to make sure you're not one of them

1. They're looking for action. Meaning instead of following a high probability trading methodology, they're taking trades on hunches with no statistical edges.

2. They subscribe to multiple newsletters (most without written, fully disclosed, track records) and they are at the same time watching the business channels looking for hot ideas. How is this any different than going to a racetrack and buying all the tout selections and also asking strangers "who they like"?

3. They trade for the rush. The more trades they do the better they feel. Behavioral psychologists refer to this as compulsive behavior and it's a serious weakness in any profession or activity.

My reply to rgoodwin is delted, why? This is not free of speech forum?

http://www.fluctu8.com/media/24742/39506/

Here is what the chart telling you in the verge of the bear market... :)

I'll just list the reasoning for bullish case:

(a). Oct/Nov VIX spike is hisotric spike in record, the March low associated with lower VIX, it shows market volitilty abating. Does anyone imagine another LEH failing give global financial system a shoke? Very unlikely.

(b). This is not a "Great Depression"! The US economy was cut in half during the 1929-1932, do you imagine this case happen again, NO. Even the most bearish economist predict slow recovery in 2010. Other than great depression, all the rest of the crash is %50. This time is NOT different from other time. We've seen worst times.

(c). The P/E10 is ~12 in March low. However, there is enough reasons that why it is not as long as 1930 and 1970~ bear market low. For example, 1970 market has huge interest rate, and no monteory policy being applied. So we can argue you won't see signal digital P/E10 this time.

(d). don't underestimate government money printing and stimulus, it buys time for economy recovery.

(e). this is global economy, even we have a sluggish 2009, the world wide economy is back on its footing 2010.

Could we in a new bull market? maybe, but we also could be on a choppy trending market, and you can expect normal return. It is very unlikely we will hit a March low again. Just my opinion, based on some fundamental reasoning.

People always try to be "contrarian", it is hard to be a "real one". When you see most of people in blog is bearish.. you get to be wondering: which side is actually the "true" contrarian.

I don't know how EW can forecast the future. Just try to unwind the historic Dow and S&P chart to 1970 (if you use telechart), and try to predict what will happen, you will find it is never easy to predict what NEXT.

"I am certain that there will be a next leg down for many reasons.  One reason is that virtually every economist and analyst who predicted this financial crisis in the first place, predicts that it is no over".

first, it is wrong to use "certain" in predicting market, it is naive.

second, you can't trust any economist on predicting the market, the economy and market is not in sync. the economy can still be bad, but a bull market can be born way early than economy recover.

third, let me just show you some example on several great "bear" who turns bullish

(1).  doug kass calls the bottom

(2).  one of the best in business : Jeremy Grantham calls re-invest when terrified:

(3). Barry Ritholtz calls rally

March 9th is a "generation" low, in Kass' s words, it is a darn good entry point. Of course, nobody knew for sure. But trying to be a fake "contrarian" and thinking the panic is not yet over is just what majority people is doing, as shown by the cash level on the side line.

anyway, I would like to quit the discussion. Just pay a little attention to the fundamental, not just draw lines on the chart and trying to predict the market going, it is not going to pay off in a big way.

guys,

Why everyone is so certain that there is a "next big leg down"?

You can always draw on a chart with possibilities, but the "next big leg down" is NOT guaranteed unless you have a crystal ball.

of course, If you are day trader, you probably don't care, since you will be out of the market everyday, and it is random in term of how the next day will go...

Dangers of Day Trading

According to the SEC, day traders should know:

• they face severe financial losses
• they are not "investing" but rather guessing which way stocks will move
• day trading is a stressful and expensive job
• depending on borrowed money (margin) leverages both your upside AND downside
• beware of claims of easy profit from newsletters and websites
• watch out for hot tips - many others attempt to "pump" a stock, getting others to buy it and then selling as it rises

The nightmare

I'm a newbie on this website. But from the post on the log and daily analysis (looking at 5-min, 10-min, 15-min chart exclusively), this website is more or less a day-trader's community, right?

I have some qutestions here in regard to the website and day trading:

(1). Is there some biography info on the founder of the website? Like who is Matt and who is Steve, what's their tracking record, etc. You have to know who are you following if you want to take risk in the market, right?

(2). How much capital to depoly to survive as a day-trader?

(3). I doubt everyone can trade a >200K account very easily, how to handle the rest of the money? Investing?

(4). How many people can really make money in a day-trading fashion. I saw some reasearch shows only 5% or less trader makes money, the rest a most losing or not making much at all.