Posted by bosscanuck on 21st of Mar 2009 at 09:26 pm
Matt,
SPX 60 MIN 7/21
That was an awsome profit on the March 10th "buy". Am now
beautifully positioned "short" for a re-test of the early March
lows. Monday should be an exciting session. Watch them
whipsaws!
Posted by vnathwani on 22nd of Mar 2009 at 04:34 am
I have seen the 7/21 EMA 60min SPX no EOD Exit system mentioned
many times recently. From my own backtesting, its not a
consistent earner but I may have done my analysis incorrectly in
tradestation
Does anyone else have any learnings on this system? The same
goes for the GDX:GLD Ratio 7//21 approach
Yes they have delivered handsomely over the past 6months or so
but over a period of say 2-3years prior to this, they didn't really
deliver
So I am either providing a note of caution in the above or I
have done my analysis incorrectly and would appreciate thoughts of
others
Posted by rgoodwin on 22nd of Mar 2009 at 06:04 pm
Vimal - I believe you are completely accurate. Look just at the
most recent trade. A crossover got you short on Feb 24. If you
waited for the next signal, to go long, that just happened on March
20 - and the short trade ended in a loss. I believe this is one of
watching the signal and not necessarily tryng to trade it as a
system. When certain other indicators started reflecting a possible
reversal, likely a good time to take profits and move stops. You
can get some great runs using the signal for entry, but not for
trading. And Matt even had stops on the Watchlist trade. JMO.
on the other hand, I think the GDX/GLD ratio system works well,
however it was due for a whipsaw i.e. not every signal is going to
be months long and huge winners, and the last two signals were huge
winners. It will catch trends, but once in a while it will
whipsaw. Use an analytical mind when trading sytems.
For example, the SRS and SKF systems are profitable, but 30% to 40%
of the trades are losers and that's the statistics, but overtime
they make money.
But yes as rgoodwin said, on the watch list we covered 1/2 on
the first leg down and were stopped out of the rest near the 200
day MA, it was a profitable trade. On the Watch List, we were
not trading it based on that system, we traded it based on the
rising wedge that had formed
well that way the trades tend to work with that system are:
catches trend, whipsaw, catch trend, whipsaw, etc. It tends
to osscilate back and forth between catching trends and whisaws,
after that nice trend, it's probably due for a whipsaw.
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SPX 60 min 7,21 system.png BTW, I
Posted by matt on 20th of Mar 2009 at 02:46 pm
BTW, I see that about 45 min ago the 60 min 7/21 system gave a sell signal. It's buy was near 700 orignally.
matt's chart
Posted by blue on 20th of Mar 2009 at 03:14 pm
Is giving me courage to swing some shorts into next week. But did exit SRS earlier for a nice profit
Matt, SPX 60 MIN 7/21 That was
Posted by bosscanuck on 21st of Mar 2009 at 09:26 pm
Matt, SPX 60 MIN 7/21
That was an awsome profit on the March 10th "buy". Am now beautifully positioned "short" for a re-test of the early March lows. Monday should be an exciting session. Watch them whipsaws!
I have seen the 7/21
Posted by vnathwani on 22nd of Mar 2009 at 04:34 am
I have seen the 7/21 EMA 60min SPX no EOD Exit system mentioned many times recently. From my own backtesting, its not a consistent earner but I may have done my analysis incorrectly in tradestation
Does anyone else have any learnings on this system? The same goes for the GDX:GLD Ratio 7//21 approach
Yes they have delivered handsomely over the past 6months or so but over a period of say 2-3years prior to this, they didn't really deliver
So I am either providing a note of caution in the above or I have done my analysis incorrectly and would appreciate thoughts of others
GDX System
Posted by rgoodwin on 22nd of Mar 2009 at 06:04 pm
Vimal - I believe you are completely accurate. Look just at the most recent trade. A crossover got you short on Feb 24. If you waited for the next signal, to go long, that just happened on March 20 - and the short trade ended in a loss. I believe this is one of watching the signal and not necessarily tryng to trade it as a system. When certain other indicators started reflecting a possible reversal, likely a good time to take profits and move stops. You can get some great runs using the signal for entry, but not for trading. And Matt even had stops on the Watchlist trade. JMO.
on the other hand, I
Posted by matt on 22nd of Mar 2009 at 06:15 pm
on the other hand, I think the GDX/GLD ratio system works well, however it was due for a whipsaw i.e. not every signal is going to be months long and huge winners, and the last two signals were huge winners. It will catch trends, but once in a while it will whipsaw. Use an analytical mind when trading sytems. For example, the SRS and SKF systems are profitable, but 30% to 40% of the trades are losers and that's the statistics, but overtime they make money.
But yes as rgoodwin said, on the watch list we covered 1/2 on the first leg down and were stopped out of the rest near the 200 day MA, it was a profitable trade. On the Watch List, we were not trading it based on that system, we traded it based on the rising wedge that had formed
well that way the trades
Posted by matt on 20th of Mar 2009 at 03:26 pm
well that way the trades tend to work with that system are: catches trend, whipsaw, catch trend, whipsaw, etc. It tends to osscilate back and forth between catching trends and whisaws, after that nice trend, it's probably due for a whipsaw.