Posted by skwan1940 on 20th of Jun 2024 at 03:49 pm
For the High Perf KISS, right now all the alerts are sent out as
they trigger; it is not like the Regular KISS where one only gets
alerts for their "Favorites". But IMO it's ok because there
are only about 30 High Perf KISS security variations (different
securities & combinations of different timeframes for same
security, such as 130 SPY, 195 SPY, etc). versus hundreds of them
in the Regular KISS. There is a Favorite column in the High
Perf KISS but it doesn't appear to be functional yet so I mentioned
to Matt that it might be good to hide that for now and then for the
future to add the ability to add favorites as more high perf KISS
security variations are added. Let's not delay the system
launch any further, what do you think
? Rik
Posted by robbief111 on 20th of Jun 2024 at 05:36 pm
Thanks for posting that Rik. Everyone has an opinion. Here's my
$.02.
I caution folks to think about how they will handle trades
(e.g., money management) with the HP systems.
It appears that there might be simultaneous trades, with
different exit dates. If you load up on every signal, you might
easily get extended.
Will you continue to partake in regular KISS trades that may
last a long time?
Currently, market pullbacks don't last very long. That will
change.....some day.
What will you do if you have a number of positions and a
mean-reversion SPY trade is announced?
Say a bunch of HP system trades occur at some market low, how
will you decide which ones to take?
This just scratches the surface of things to think about.
Based upon the current KISS system experience, people will be
asking for new HP systems.
I think that it's okay to "ask," but Matt alone has to be the
arbiter of what, if anything, is added beyond the first 30.
Remember: The HP systems are different from the current KISS.
I don't know, but I expect they will be more akin to the SPY
systems that have similarities, but are still unique to each other.
Matt will have to spend many hours of back tests to
validate any new symbol/timeframe.
There will be bugs as many people gain exposure to the
systems.
I would rather have Matt expend his resources on any
improvements to the initial 30.
I'd rather not see any holdup in the rollout.
Posted by DigiNomad on 20th of Jun 2024 at 05:52 pm
100%.
Been saying for many years that we / I need a system for the
systems.Sounds easy but it's almost impossibly complex...if it
wasn't I would have posted my system for the systems a long time
ago. The complexity comes from the amount of variables
though...which isn't a bad thing. Each person will have different
criteria. But if you're watching this unfold thinking the work is
done, think again. Your plan is about to get more complex... which
isn't bad, it's just mathematical reality
If You're still thinking it's simple, consider this scenario.
You're Long the indexes via the kiss systems and then you're on 1st
entries for four different mean reversion systems and 4 HP names
triggered today. How's your margin looking? Do you have room for
2nd and 3rd double down entries on reversion systems? Two more HP
names just triggered long. How about now?
Just guessing - the vast majority of traders don't leave room
for the 3rd double down on reversion systems. If you do,the initial
bet won't seem very interesting
Posted by patellee on 20th of Jun 2024 at 07:18 pm
Agree. If people are looking at this as a "get rich quick"
scheme they are sorely mistaken. You need to be active in
this forum, you need to watch and understand the daily newsletters,
you have to ask questions of one another, and you have to be
staring at charts for at least an hour a day. After that you
have to decide your tolerances, your capital allocations, your
risk/reward ratios, your time horizon, etc.
In other words, be an adult. If you can't be an adult
then this is not likely for you.
Posted by skwan1940 on 20th of Jun 2024 at 09:27 pm
No, it's not a get rich quick scheme. Unlike the mean
reversion systems, these High Perf KISS systems have lower avg.
winning percentages even though overall returns are Awesome.
For example, there could be 5 or more losing trades in a row
(although small drawdowns) with some of them before a bonafide
trend is established. I can see some people getting
frustrated with that but that tells me they have unrealistic
expectations about trading or they haven't been around long enough.
In the late 90s I used to intern for John Bollinger, inventor
of the Bollinger Bands, and he told me "if a trader has a batting
average of .66, that is amazing." In my own trading, I stop
out quite often with small (hopefully) losses. That is the
nature of trend-following trading (the KISS systems) versus mean
reversion trading. Also, it would be interesting to see the
stats for such things like NVDA in the future and how the High Perf
KISS adapts to a bear market w/that security and how the stats for
something like GDX could possibly improve if we are indeed in a
secular precious metals bull.
But yeah, one has to make decisions on portfolio allocation-
for example, in the High Perf KISS, there are several ways to trade
the S&P 500: 3 timeframes to trade SPY (78 min, 130 min, etc),
2 timeframes for SSO, and 3 timeframes for UPRO. The way I
would initially do it is to look at correlations between the
different available options among the High Perf KISS and construct
a lesser-correlated portfolio of securities, for example, SPY,
YINN, ERX, etc. I wouldn't trade both MSFT and QQQ together,
for example. I don't know what others use for correlation
analysis (there used to be one from Sector SPDR but they don't have
it anymore), but I use the Correlation indicator in Stockcharts.com
to look at correlations between 2 securities using different time
periods (SPY vs YINN for example below). This is what I would
initially do. But hey, if one has a giant account and don't
mind the high correlations between MSFT/QQQ, then more power to
them.
Posted by jonesy85 on 21st of Jun 2024 at 09:15 am
Matt which of the timeframes on Upro, SSO has the best long term
results? I guess less is best for me, hard to trade to many
positions and not get overwhelmed.
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For the High Perf KISS,
High Performance KISS systems update
Posted by skwan1940 on 20th of Jun 2024 at 03:49 pm
For the High Perf KISS, right now all the alerts are sent out as they trigger; it is not like the Regular KISS where one only gets alerts for their "Favorites". But IMO it's ok because there are only about 30 High Perf KISS security variations (different securities & combinations of different timeframes for same security, such as 130 SPY, 195 SPY, etc). versus hundreds of them in the Regular KISS. There is a Favorite column in the High Perf KISS but it doesn't appear to be functional yet so I mentioned to Matt that it might be good to hide that for now and then for the future to add the ability to add favorites as more high perf KISS security variations are added. Let's not delay the system launch any further, what do you think ? Rik
Thanks for posting that Rik.
Posted by robbief111 on 20th of Jun 2024 at 05:36 pm
Thanks for posting that Rik. Everyone has an opinion. Here's my $.02.
I caution folks to think about how they will handle trades (e.g., money management) with the HP systems.
It appears that there might be simultaneous trades, with different exit dates. If you load up on every signal, you might easily get extended.
Will you continue to partake in regular KISS trades that may last a long time?
Currently, market pullbacks don't last very long. That will change.....some day.
What will you do if you have a number of positions and a mean-reversion SPY trade is announced?
Say a bunch of HP system trades occur at some market low, how will you decide which ones to take?
This just scratches the surface of things to think about.
Based upon the current KISS system experience, people will be asking for new HP systems.
I think that it's okay to "ask," but Matt alone has to be the arbiter of what, if anything, is added beyond the first 30.
Remember: The HP systems are different from the current KISS. I don't know, but I expect they will be more akin to the SPY systems that have similarities, but are still unique to each other. Matt will have to spend many hours of back tests to validate any new symbol/timeframe.
There will be bugs as many people gain exposure to the systems.
I would rather have Matt expend his resources on any improvements to the initial 30.
I'd rather not see any holdup in the rollout.
Robbie
100%. Been saying for many years
Posted by DigiNomad on 20th of Jun 2024 at 05:52 pm
100%.
Been saying for many years that we / I need a system for the systems.Sounds easy but it's almost impossibly complex...if it wasn't I would have posted my system for the systems a long time ago. The complexity comes from the amount of variables though...which isn't a bad thing. Each person will have different criteria. But if you're watching this unfold thinking the work is done, think again. Your plan is about to get more complex... which isn't bad, it's just mathematical reality
If You're still thinking it's simple, consider this scenario. You're Long the indexes via the kiss systems and then you're on 1st entries for four different mean reversion systems and 4 HP names triggered today. How's your margin looking? Do you have room for 2nd and 3rd double down entries on reversion systems? Two more HP names just triggered long. How about now?
Just guessing - the vast majority of traders don't leave room for the 3rd double down on reversion systems. If you do,the initial bet won't seem very interesting
Agree. If people are looking
Posted by patellee on 20th of Jun 2024 at 07:18 pm
Agree. If people are looking at this as a "get rich quick" scheme they are sorely mistaken. You need to be active in this forum, you need to watch and understand the daily newsletters, you have to ask questions of one another, and you have to be staring at charts for at least an hour a day. After that you have to decide your tolerances, your capital allocations, your risk/reward ratios, your time horizon, etc.
In other words, be an adult. If you can't be an adult then this is not likely for you.
No, it's not a get
Posted by skwan1940 on 20th of Jun 2024 at 09:27 pm
No, it's not a get rich quick scheme. Unlike the mean reversion systems, these High Perf KISS systems have lower avg. winning percentages even though overall returns are Awesome. For example, there could be 5 or more losing trades in a row (although small drawdowns) with some of them before a bonafide trend is established. I can see some people getting frustrated with that but that tells me they have unrealistic expectations about trading or they haven't been around long enough. In the late 90s I used to intern for John Bollinger, inventor of the Bollinger Bands, and he told me "if a trader has a batting average of .66, that is amazing." In my own trading, I stop out quite often with small (hopefully) losses. That is the nature of trend-following trading (the KISS systems) versus mean reversion trading. Also, it would be interesting to see the stats for such things like NVDA in the future and how the High Perf KISS adapts to a bear market w/that security and how the stats for something like GDX could possibly improve if we are indeed in a secular precious metals bull.
But yeah, one has to make decisions on portfolio allocation- for example, in the High Perf KISS, there are several ways to trade the S&P 500: 3 timeframes to trade SPY (78 min, 130 min, etc), 2 timeframes for SSO, and 3 timeframes for UPRO. The way I would initially do it is to look at correlations between the different available options among the High Perf KISS and construct a lesser-correlated portfolio of securities, for example, SPY, YINN, ERX, etc. I wouldn't trade both MSFT and QQQ together, for example. I don't know what others use for correlation analysis (there used to be one from Sector SPDR but they don't have it anymore), but I use the Correlation indicator in Stockcharts.com to look at correlations between 2 securities using different time periods (SPY vs YINN for example below). This is what I would initially do. But hey, if one has a giant account and don't mind the high correlations between MSFT/QQQ, then more power to them.
Matt which of the timeframes
Posted by jonesy85 on 21st of Jun 2024 at 09:15 am
Matt which of the timeframes on Upro, SSO has the best long term results? I guess less is best for me, hard to trade to many positions and not get overwhelmed.