Posted by kingpin15 on 6th of Apr 2024 at 01:57 pm
This daily chart of the S&P 500 should be familiar to
regular readers. It is our Wyckoffian record of market structure
going back to the bull market peak of 2021. It is a real-time
journal of our Wyckoff Analysis through the Distribution Structure,
the Markdown, the Accumulation Phase of 2022-23 and now the Markup.
The Markup finally exceeded the rangebound condition of the
Accumulation with the advance that began in October of '23. We had
been making the case for the unfolding Accumulation here and in the
Wyckoff Market Discussions (every Wednesday with Roman Bogomazov)
throughout the Accumulation period.
Recently the S&P 500 climbed above the well defined Markup
channel into a Throwover and OverBought condition. This OverBought
/ ThrowOver has arrived as the First Quarter was coming to a
conclusion. Thus suggesting ‘Window Dressing' shenanigans by
institutional types. Often strong trends in the indexes (both
upwards and downwards) can follow through and persist for a few
weeks into the new quarter. We will watch for a change of character
in the behavior of the indexes in the Second Quarter. An example of
this would be a reversal of the S&P 500 back into the upward
striding Trend Channel. A sudden and sharp break back into the
channel would be labeled an Automatic Reaction (AR) and would
represent an important confirmation of the upward trend exhaustion.
Until such an event the upward trend must be respected.
We expect the upward stride of a Markup phase to be broad and
strong and such is the case here. Recall that Accumulation is a
zone of deepening pessimism where the public and institutions
become progressively more cautious. Such caution manifests as
portfolio defensiveness (higher levels of cash, lower beta stocks
and more bond type assets). Meanwhile the ‘Composite Operator'
types are absorbing stocks with good growth and value features for
the next bull market. This puts stocks in very strong hands. This
Supply to Demand imbalance can result in stock indexes launching
higher following the preparation phase of Accumulation. As
Accumulation concludes broad pessimism is observed in the extreme
pessimism readings of various sentiment gauges (which were profiled
in Power Charting and on WMD at the time).
thanks for posting that. Wyckoff is the one
technical analysis method that I really don't know anything about.
I need to study it so that I can get a good feel.
This daily chart of the
Posted by kingpin15 on 6th of Apr 2024 at 01:57 pm
This daily chart of the S&P 500 should be familiar to regular readers. It is our Wyckoffian record of market structure going back to the bull market peak of 2021. It is a real-time journal of our Wyckoff Analysis through the Distribution Structure, the Markdown, the Accumulation Phase of 2022-23 and now the Markup. The Markup finally exceeded the rangebound condition of the Accumulation with the advance that began in October of '23. We had been making the case for the unfolding Accumulation here and in the Wyckoff Market Discussions (every Wednesday with Roman Bogomazov) throughout the Accumulation period.
Recently the S&P 500 climbed above the well defined Markup channel into a Throwover and OverBought condition. This OverBought / ThrowOver has arrived as the First Quarter was coming to a conclusion. Thus suggesting ‘Window Dressing' shenanigans by institutional types. Often strong trends in the indexes (both upwards and downwards) can follow through and persist for a few weeks into the new quarter. We will watch for a change of character in the behavior of the indexes in the Second Quarter. An example of this would be a reversal of the S&P 500 back into the upward striding Trend Channel. A sudden and sharp break back into the channel would be labeled an Automatic Reaction (AR) and would represent an important confirmation of the upward trend exhaustion. Until such an event the upward trend must be respected.
We expect the upward stride of a Markup phase to be broad and strong and such is the case here. Recall that Accumulation is a zone of deepening pessimism where the public and institutions become progressively more cautious. Such caution manifests as portfolio defensiveness (higher levels of cash, lower beta stocks and more bond type assets). Meanwhile the ‘Composite Operator' types are absorbing stocks with good growth and value features for the next bull market. This puts stocks in very strong hands. This Supply to Demand imbalance can result in stock indexes launching higher following the preparation phase of Accumulation. As Accumulation concludes broad pessimism is observed in the extreme pessimism readings of various sentiment gauges (which were profiled in Power Charting and on WMD at the time).
thanks for posting that. Wyckoff
Posted by matt on 7th of Apr 2024 at 12:33 pm
thanks for posting that. Wyckoff is the one technical analysis method that I really don't know anything about. I need to study it so that I can get a good feel.
Stockcharts.comhas an article on it
https://school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=market_analysis:the_wyckoff_method
school.stockcharts.com
The Wyckoff Method: A Tutorial [ChartSchool]
Wyckoff is probably the most
Posted by brophy on 8th of Apr 2024 at 09:02 am
Wyckoff is probably the most subjective of all T.A. methods. Best used alongside Point and Figure charts.