Posted by mastermind on 4th of Apr 2024 at 06:24 pm
Well, if you are following the systems, you either:
a) Close your shorts now as the exhaustion short was closed
today
b) Keep your shorts open in accordance with the NYSI crossover
signal.
Following the systems are not always so simple. The STS tables
are my preferred method. I sold my SQQQ for a small loss today, but
may take LABD, one of the few short ETFs left in the STS
tables.
Exhaustion short has nothing to do with the NYSI system -
basically the way you trade those is as their own system mutually
exclusive to one another. The short you had via the exhaustion
short you close out. And if you decided to follow the NYSI system
you would enter a different short based on that.
jobs number tomorrow, and given how oversold we are very short
term I could see a bounce, even if it forms a lower high
to me the IWM looks done
again everyone will have their own style and methods that suit
them. And I'm happy you are utilizing the STS KISS system!
my point above was that it's best to treat each system on its
own mutually exclusive to one other. For the 21 mean reversion
systems that's what I do, there can be 2 or 3 open shorts and a
couple open longs at the same time, that's fine, you trade those
systems each on their own. When multiple systems are doing
different things you can use different ETF's
for something like futures, it simple becomes a summation game.
For example if you had 3 systems long and one system in a short,
and if you took one contract for each system that's +1, +1, +1, -1
= a net long of 2 contracts until one or more of the systems closes
out
Posted by icecoldjones on 5th of Apr 2024 at 12:17 pm
The bad part is that I'm not following the STS KISS system yet
and have learned the very hard way that I should have been this
entire time. Once I take all my losses on this short, the STS KISS
is my only path forward.
Posted by DigiNomad on 5th of Apr 2024 at 12:21 pm
Trend following systems work very well in strongly trending
markets (obviously). They don't work as well in sideways
markets. The market doesn't always trend - it can go very
long periods of time without trending. Just keep in mind that no
single system is a panacea for all market types.
Of course Captain Obvious
This is also why very unsophisticated
moving average cross systems get whipsawed to death unless logical
filters are in place to try and take profits early or filter out
trades. Even in trending markets, the whipsaws can kill all
the gains on a simple MA cross system. If you employ my
whipsaw confirmation filter that does greatly improve moving
average cross systems - I need to make an educational video on that
sometime.
The KISS systems obviously do best in uptrending markets as they
are long only. That said, I did spend a lot of time and effort and
thoughts about adding various filters and other things to try and
help them navigate sideways markets quite well, and in a
downtrending markets they stay mostly in cash anyways - all of
these filters help a lot but still obviously they do best in
trending environments.
To me for the market, especially for the indexes: A combination
of trend following and mean reversion makes sense because you then
cover both basis. Trend following do better in times like we've
been in (and of course the market does spend a lot more time
uptrending and going sideways than it does in corrections (which
may only account for 10% of the market). Mean reversion
systems are great of course in bear markets, in higher volatility
conditions, and especially do well in sideways moves.
So the combination of KISS trend following with mean reversion
is a good combo
Posted by mastermind on 4th of Apr 2024 at 06:42 pm
But in this case, if you are using the SPX as your instrument on
the NYSI system, it would be a matter of closing a short and then
opening the same one again, right? I guess you could call it a
continuation play, or the relay race analogy that you have used,
but even though they are different signals, it's basically the same
play.
Posted by DigiNomad on 4th of Apr 2024 at 06:44 pm
It depends. Is your plan to allocate separately to each system
and track independently, or merge signals for more of a single
approach for a given underlying? Lots of ways to skin this
cat.
Posted by DigiNomad on 4th of Apr 2024 at 06:39 pm
As I've been posting for years - it takes a "system on the
systems" to run them effectively given how many there are. For some
it will be spreadsheets to track open interest in each system, for
others maybe they open accounts for each system they want to follow
(IBKR allows creation of duplicate accounts with a single click).
Not knowing ahead of time how many entries a system will take
also makes the initial entry size challenging....especially if
playing multiple systems simultaneously. If you play each time like
it could have 3 entries, you're likely to be underinvested most of
the time. It's one hell of a puzzle.
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Well, if you are following
Me yesterday morning: Man, do I have too many shorts ...
Posted by mastermind on 4th of Apr 2024 at 06:24 pm
Well, if you are following the systems, you either:
a) Close your shorts now as the exhaustion short was closed today
b) Keep your shorts open in accordance with the NYSI crossover signal.
Following the systems are not always so simple. The STS tables are my preferred method. I sold my SQQQ for a small loss today, but may take LABD, one of the few short ETFs left in the STS tables.
Exhaustion short has nothing to
Posted by matt on 4th of Apr 2024 at 06:29 pm
Exhaustion short has nothing to do with the NYSI system - basically the way you trade those is as their own system mutually exclusive to one another. The short you had via the exhaustion short you close out. And if you decided to follow the NYSI system you would enter a different short based on that.
jobs number tomorrow, and given how oversold we are very short term I could see a bounce, even if it forms a lower high
to me the IWM looks done
again everyone will have their own style and methods that suit them. And I'm happy you are utilizing the STS KISS system!
my point above was that it's best to treat each system on its own mutually exclusive to one other. For the 21 mean reversion systems that's what I do, there can be 2 or 3 open shorts and a couple open longs at the same time, that's fine, you trade those systems each on their own. When multiple systems are doing different things you can use different ETF's
for something like futures, it simple becomes a summation game. For example if you had 3 systems long and one system in a short, and if you took one contract for each system that's +1, +1, +1, -1 = a net long of 2 contracts until one or more of the systems closes out
The bad part is that
Posted by icecoldjones on 5th of Apr 2024 at 12:17 pm
The bad part is that I'm not following the STS KISS system yet and have learned the very hard way that I should have been this entire time. Once I take all my losses on this short, the STS KISS is my only path forward.
Trend following systems work very
Posted by DigiNomad on 5th of Apr 2024 at 12:21 pm
Trend following systems work very well in strongly trending markets (obviously). They don't work as well in sideways markets. The market doesn't always trend - it can go very long periods of time without trending. Just keep in mind that no single system is a panacea for all market types.
Of course Captain Obvious
Posted by matt on 5th of Apr 2024 at 12:32 pm
Of course Captain Obvious This is also why very unsophisticated moving average cross systems get whipsawed to death unless logical filters are in place to try and take profits early or filter out trades. Even in trending markets, the whipsaws can kill all the gains on a simple MA cross system. If you employ my whipsaw confirmation filter that does greatly improve moving average cross systems - I need to make an educational video on that sometime.
The KISS systems obviously do best in uptrending markets as they are long only. That said, I did spend a lot of time and effort and thoughts about adding various filters and other things to try and help them navigate sideways markets quite well, and in a downtrending markets they stay mostly in cash anyways - all of these filters help a lot but still obviously they do best in trending environments.
To me for the market, especially for the indexes: A combination of trend following and mean reversion makes sense because you then cover both basis. Trend following do better in times like we've been in (and of course the market does spend a lot more time uptrending and going sideways than it does in corrections (which may only account for 10% of the market). Mean reversion systems are great of course in bear markets, in higher volatility conditions, and especially do well in sideways moves.
So the combination of KISS trend following with mean reversion is a good combo
But in this case, if
Posted by mastermind on 4th of Apr 2024 at 06:42 pm
But in this case, if you are using the SPX as your instrument on the NYSI system, it would be a matter of closing a short and then opening the same one again, right? I guess you could call it a continuation play, or the relay race analogy that you have used, but even though they are different signals, it's basically the same play.
It depends. Is your plan
Posted by DigiNomad on 4th of Apr 2024 at 06:44 pm
It depends. Is your plan to allocate separately to each system and track independently, or merge signals for more of a single approach for a given underlying? Lots of ways to skin this cat.
As I've been posting for
Posted by DigiNomad on 4th of Apr 2024 at 06:39 pm
As I've been posting for years - it takes a "system on the systems" to run them effectively given how many there are. For some it will be spreadsheets to track open interest in each system, for others maybe they open accounts for each system they want to follow (IBKR allows creation of duplicate accounts with a single click). Not knowing ahead of time how many entries a system will take also makes the initial entry size challenging....especially if playing multiple systems simultaneously. If you play each time like it could have 3 entries, you're likely to be underinvested most of the time. It's one hell of a puzzle.