it's just normal occurrences when the 9 and 20 MA's have a
strong up slope, not a new phenomenon of the markets - you have to
have a symmetry break of the uptrend, then lower high that flattens
out the MA's before start getting follow throughs and trending
moves to the downside
here's a message I sent to a guy I know who was loaded with July
SPY Puts - I told him days ago to consider taking a bunch of those
off on the first rug pull big down down because with the fast MA's
sloping how they are, chances are we'll get a big rebound - don't
hold them thinking you've caught the top, I've been burned too many
times in the past doing that and learned my lesson when short take
a bunch off on the first sell off, or all of it unless there's a
break in symmetry and structure
remember I've talked to you
numerous times recently about all those July puts you hold -
remember my comments: the short term MA's 9/20 were all strongly
upsloping, and because of that take some good profits on the first
sell off because you always get a strong retracement, it's not
until you put in a lower high that causes the MA's to flatten out
that you get your more sustained move. When the SPX was down 80
points you should have taken a bunch of those off the table from
what my discussion to you - now you could have added them back much
better. I wasn't trying to lecture you - I was trying to share my
experience - I used to do that too, pick tops - then there's a huge
1 day sell off and I think to myself 'I caught the top, I'm going
to hold' and don't take anything off the table and bam, I give the
profits back - I've learned the hard way so many times - that's
what I was trying to convey to you
come on - obviously the market is up more than it would be over
the last 15 years if it wasn't for that. we've always stated that -
markets move on liquidity it's that simple
what I discussed had nothing to do with the Fed, just simple
charts - there was no evidence that yesterday's pullback confirmed
a high and the 9 EMA and 20 SMA slopes are at 45 degree angles -so
big sell offs tend to have quick recoveries unless you have a break
in structure
Posted by DigiNomad on 1st of Feb 2024 at 04:33 pm
I just think it's a bit of gaslighting to suggest that these
moves are normal (see heading to post below). I've been trading for
25 years and these moves are not normal...unless I slept through
something along the way. Did I sell yesterday? Hell no. Because the
Gov printing press is out of control, not because of anything else.
Earnings have been a sh*t show for the most part until a
couple today.
Posted by mastermind on 1st of Feb 2024 at 04:59 pm
Hey, guess what. Sometimes the market goes down when it doesn't
make sense either. The market has a mind of its own. It's not
always logical based on all of the data that you see. Do you
bellyache when the market is in freefall too?
Posted by DigiNomad on 1st of Feb 2024 at 05:03 pm
Yes, I absolutely do bellyache both ways. I personally like
markets that make sense. Dislocations based on Gov nonsense disturb
me. Sue me.
I had the levels picked and everything went according to plan
today. I don't have to like watching my purchasing power go up in
smoke to support wars, migration and underperforming health care.
In the meantime, break out the confetti! SPX just closed at
ATH (4937).
Posted by DigiNomad on 1st of Feb 2024 at 06:00 pm
Yes. The market is simply a collection of assets. So if you own
them when they the dollar is being diluted and asset prices are
inflating, you will participate in the inflation. But do the math
on how much market exposure you would have to have to fully hedge
yourself from the effects of reduced purchasing power from deficit
spending. It's unlikely for the vast majority of people, even
subscribers here, and only if they also pick the perfect assets
that inflate at or near the rate of inflation....which is not the
nonsense CPI number we get shoved down our throats by the Gov that
wants to keep spending no matter what. They peeled out asset
inflation a long time ago and left us with a basket of goods
measured like we're still in the 1960's. God forbid modernization,
but why don't they reach back and use 20 year old technology
instead of 60 year old tech to construct a real time, infinitely
more accurate measure of inflation? Well, I think we all know
why.
SPX - the slope of
Posted by DigiNomad on 1st of Feb 2024 at 04:20 pm
SPX - the slope of today's advance made yesterday look like a walk in the park. Vertical is the new normal.
it's just normal occurrences when
Posted by matt on 1st of Feb 2024 at 04:26 pm
it's just normal occurrences when the 9 and 20 MA's have a strong up slope, not a new phenomenon of the markets - you have to have a symmetry break of the uptrend, then lower high that flattens out the MA's before start getting follow throughs and trending moves to the downside
here's a message I sent to a guy I know who was loaded with July SPY Puts - I told him days ago to consider taking a bunch of those off on the first rug pull big down down because with the fast MA's sloping how they are, chances are we'll get a big rebound - don't hold them thinking you've caught the top, I've been burned too many times in the past doing that and learned my lesson when short take a bunch off on the first sell off, or all of it unless there's a break in symmetry and structure
remember I've talked to you numerous times recently about all those July puts you hold - remember my comments: the short term MA's 9/20 were all strongly upsloping, and because of that take some good profits on the first sell off because you always get a strong retracement, it's not until you put in a lower high that causes the MA's to flatten out that you get your more sustained move. When the SPX was down 80 points you should have taken a bunch of those off the table from what my discussion to you - now you could have added them back much better. I wasn't trying to lecture you - I was trying to share my experience - I used to do that too, pick tops - then there's a huge 1 day sell off and I think to myself 'I caught the top, I'm going to hold' and don't take anything off the table and bam, I give the profits back - I've learned the hard way so many times - that's what I was trying to convey to you
Good stuff, Matt. Been there
Posted by auni on 2nd of Feb 2024 at 02:05 am
Good stuff, Matt. Been there too many times as well. Top calling is for" punters"... look it up.
I'm willing to bet that
Posted by payday on 1st of Feb 2024 at 07:08 pm
I'm willing to bet that this guy did not follow Matt's advice
thanks for sharing this Matt...
Posted by greggone on 1st of Feb 2024 at 05:29 pm
thanks for sharing this Matt...
I second that !!!
Posted by mla127 on 1st of Feb 2024 at 05:38 pm
I second that !!!
Yep, it has absolutely nothing
Posted by DigiNomad on 1st of Feb 2024 at 04:27 pm
Yep, it has absolutely nothing to do with fiscal and monetary stimulus. Check.
*I haven't bought a put since ever since. Sounds like others maybe have, but I let the Fed do that for me.
come on - obviously the
Posted by matt on 1st of Feb 2024 at 04:30 pm
come on - obviously the market is up more than it would be over the last 15 years if it wasn't for that. we've always stated that - markets move on liquidity it's that simple
what I discussed had nothing to do with the Fed, just simple charts - there was no evidence that yesterday's pullback confirmed a high and the 9 EMA and 20 SMA slopes are at 45 degree angles -so big sell offs tend to have quick recoveries unless you have a break in structure
I just think it's a
Posted by DigiNomad on 1st of Feb 2024 at 04:33 pm
I just think it's a bit of gaslighting to suggest that these moves are normal (see heading to post below). I've been trading for 25 years and these moves are not normal...unless I slept through something along the way. Did I sell yesterday? Hell no. Because the Gov printing press is out of control, not because of anything else. Earnings have been a sh*t show for the most part until a couple today.
Hey, guess what. Sometimes the
Posted by mastermind on 1st of Feb 2024 at 04:59 pm
Hey, guess what. Sometimes the market goes down when it doesn't make sense either. The market has a mind of its own. It's not always logical based on all of the data that you see. Do you bellyache when the market is in freefall too?
Yes, I absolutely do bellyache
Posted by DigiNomad on 1st of Feb 2024 at 05:03 pm
Yes, I absolutely do bellyache both ways. I personally like markets that make sense. Dislocations based on Gov nonsense disturb me. Sue me.
I had the levels picked and everything went according to plan today. I don't have to like watching my purchasing power go up in smoke to support wars, migration and underperforming health care.
In the meantime, break out the confetti! SPX just closed at ATH (4937).
OK, that's all not great.
Posted by mastermind on 1st of Feb 2024 at 05:13 pm
OK, that's all not great. But isn't that part of what the market is for - an inflation hedge?
Yes. The market is simply
Posted by DigiNomad on 1st of Feb 2024 at 06:00 pm
Yes. The market is simply a collection of assets. So if you own them when they the dollar is being diluted and asset prices are inflating, you will participate in the inflation. But do the math on how much market exposure you would have to have to fully hedge yourself from the effects of reduced purchasing power from deficit spending. It's unlikely for the vast majority of people, even subscribers here, and only if they also pick the perfect assets that inflate at or near the rate of inflation....which is not the nonsense CPI number we get shoved down our throats by the Gov that wants to keep spending no matter what. They peeled out asset inflation a long time ago and left us with a basket of goods measured like we're still in the 1960's. God forbid modernization, but why don't they reach back and use 20 year old technology instead of 60 year old tech to construct a real time, infinitely more accurate measure of inflation? Well, I think we all know why.
Yesterday was the biggest tease
Posted by icecoldjones on 1st of Feb 2024 at 04:55 pm
Yesterday was the biggest tease ever as I just lost all my gains from my shorts and then some today.
Yeah ... we calculate pullbacks
Posted by mla127 on 1st of Feb 2024 at 04:21 pm
Yeah ... we calculate pullbacks in hours now .... lol