Posted by icecoldjones on 11th of Jan 2024 at 09:36 am
Haha that would be pretty risky seeing inflation just came in
hot and could cause a rapid spike. That page shows a 100% chance of
a cut in Jun, Jul, Sep, Nov and Dec haha! That seems absurd and
would indicate a recession if you ask me.
Posted by DigiNomad on 11th of Jan 2024 at 09:43 am
Yeah, weird reaction and weirder open. Look at TNX and VIX (vix
is dead, but still in the habit). Plus the Fed Watch is
nonsensical. It looks like everyone is locked in at least until we
print new highs.
One thing that is likely helping is China up strongly today
and oil up (it helps, until it doesn't).
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Here you go: https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html tldr: 63.9% chance
Core CPI (YoY) (Dec) +3.9% vs +3.8% Est.BREAKING: December CPI ...
Posted by jhbernstein on 11th of Jan 2024 at 09:21 am
Here you go:
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
tldr: 63.9% chance of a cut in March
cmegroup.com
Haha that would be pretty
Posted by icecoldjones on 11th of Jan 2024 at 09:36 am
Haha that would be pretty risky seeing inflation just came in hot and could cause a rapid spike. That page shows a 100% chance of a cut in Jun, Jul, Sep, Nov and Dec haha! That seems absurd and would indicate a recession if you ask me.
Yeah, weird reaction and weirder
Posted by DigiNomad on 11th of Jan 2024 at 09:43 am
Yeah, weird reaction and weirder open. Look at TNX and VIX (vix is dead, but still in the habit). Plus the Fed Watch is nonsensical. It looks like everyone is locked in at least until we print new highs.
One thing that is likely helping is China up strongly today and oil up (it helps, until it doesn't).