BREAKING: December CPI inflation rate RISES to 3.4%, above
expectations of 3.2%. Core CPI inflation fell to 3.9%, above
expectations of 3.8%. This is the 33rd consecutive month with
inflation above 3% and first jump since September.
Posted by icecoldjones on 11th of Jan 2024 at 09:36 am
Haha that would be pretty risky seeing inflation just came in
hot and could cause a rapid spike. That page shows a 100% chance of
a cut in Jun, Jul, Sep, Nov and Dec haha! That seems absurd and
would indicate a recession if you ask me.
Posted by DigiNomad on 11th of Jan 2024 at 09:43 am
Yeah, weird reaction and weirder open. Look at TNX and VIX (vix
is dead, but still in the habit). Plus the Fed Watch is
nonsensical. It looks like everyone is locked in at least until we
print new highs.
One thing that is likely helping is China up strongly today
and oil up (it helps, until it doesn't).
Posted by DigiNomad on 11th of Jan 2024 at 08:33 am
Hotter than the hot they expected. Here comes the spin.
I believe people aren't as worried about inflation as they
would be if they really understood it. They see asset values
increasing and the mostly feel good about it. Party on. The reality
is much more pernicious..
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Core CPI (YoY) (Dec) +3.9%
Posted by steve on 11th of Jan 2024 at 08:30 am
Core CPI (YoY) (Dec) +3.9% vs +3.8% Est.
BREAKING: December CPI inflation rate RISES to 3.4%, above expectations of 3.2%. Core CPI inflation fell to 3.9%, above expectations of 3.8%. This is the 33rd consecutive month with inflation above 3% and first jump since September.
What are the latest odds
Posted by steve on 11th of Jan 2024 at 09:00 am
What are the latest odds for a March cut now?
Here you go: https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html tldr: 63.9% chance
Posted by jhbernstein on 11th of Jan 2024 at 09:21 am
Here you go:
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
tldr: 63.9% chance of a cut in March
cmegroup.com
Haha that would be pretty
Posted by icecoldjones on 11th of Jan 2024 at 09:36 am
Haha that would be pretty risky seeing inflation just came in hot and could cause a rapid spike. That page shows a 100% chance of a cut in Jun, Jul, Sep, Nov and Dec haha! That seems absurd and would indicate a recession if you ask me.
Yeah, weird reaction and weirder
Posted by DigiNomad on 11th of Jan 2024 at 09:43 am
Yeah, weird reaction and weirder open. Look at TNX and VIX (vix is dead, but still in the habit). Plus the Fed Watch is nonsensical. It looks like everyone is locked in at least until we print new highs.
One thing that is likely helping is China up strongly today and oil up (it helps, until it doesn't).
I used to have it
Posted by DigiNomad on 11th of Jan 2024 at 09:13 am
I used to have it bookmarked, but I can't find it.
Hotter than the hot they
Posted by DigiNomad on 11th of Jan 2024 at 08:33 am
Hotter than the hot they expected. Here comes the spin.
I believe people aren't as worried about inflation as they would be if they really understood it. They see asset values increasing and the mostly feel good about it. Party on. The reality is much more pernicious..