Posted by DigiNomad on 18th of Dec 2023 at 11:40 am
Wave count on 5 min - I kind of thought wave counts went
the way of the dodo bird about 3 or 4 weeks ago...but I suppose
that's just looking at a daily chart. Are you starting your count
on the 5 min at 4728 or or 4725? I realize EWT can be very
subjective and won't hold anyone to their count. Just curious.
*Raphael Bostic on deck again today. He already tried pushing
back and the market ignored him (bonds yields literally fell) so
I'm not expecting much impact today (I don't imagine his message
will have changed much since Friday). He's already shown his hand
- the market is calling his bluff and not allowing the Fed to
backtrack after giving them the all clear last week. I read
multiple articles this weekend from advisors congratulating their
clients on sticking to their guns over the last 2 years. Yes, the
market has gone nowhere in 2 years, but if you averaged in you did
well, at least that's the mantra on the street right now. It's a
huge relief for the markets to be back to 2022 levels...and it only
took 2 years.
Posted by DigiNomad on 18th of Dec 2023 at 01:02 pm
Posting that it couldn't have been a short term top because it
wasn't wave 5 is something that is really only useful if posted
before the next up move starts vs after the move. After the
move, it's like...welp, I guess that wasn't a wave 5 since we
didn't get a 3 wave pullback and just made a new high. Posting
before a move is predictive with probabilities for outcomes that
can be applied to a trading plan (just because you might think it's
a wave 5 doesn't mean it will actually turn out that way). Posting
after a move occurs is backwards looking information (hindsight is
20/20) that is likely to mislead others into thinking they aren't
tracking correctly. Let me know if this doesn't make sense.
Maybe I'm missing something.
*I'm making some assumptions because the actual wave count
wasn't offered....only that it wasn't a wave 5. That makes me
think it wasn't clear it wasn't a wave 5 until it was invalidated
by the move (and yes, my count at the time was 5, but I wasn't
positive about it so not surprised to be wrong...I never am with
EWT).
Posted by vantraveler on 18th of Dec 2023 at 02:31 pm
It would be helpful if Matt and Steve gave more probability to
direction on their chart analysis. I do hear Matt often
suggest his opinion on which direction he favors on a chart. That
is very helpful from an education standpoint. It validates or
contradicts what I am thinking. It would be helpful to get a
bit more of that from Steve as well. I understand the
philosophy of trading the break. And I know Steve's comment
to this post would be not to prognosticate, to simply act on price
action. But on most charts, a technician should be able to
look at all the indicators and have a thought on the general
probability of price moving in a specific direction. Again,
providing an emphasis and direction can assist members in
particular trades and education. THX!
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SPX 5 min
Posted by matt on 18th of Dec 2023 at 11:18 am
$SPX - Chart Link price was flagging, nice pop
again for any sort of short term top you need to see 5 waves completed ot the upside, we have not had that
Wave count on 5 min
Posted by DigiNomad on 18th of Dec 2023 at 11:40 am
Wave count on 5 min - I kind of thought wave counts went the way of the dodo bird about 3 or 4 weeks ago...but I suppose that's just looking at a daily chart. Are you starting your count on the 5 min at 4728 or or 4725? I realize EWT can be very subjective and won't hold anyone to their count. Just curious.
*Raphael Bostic on deck again today. He already tried pushing back and the market ignored him (bonds yields literally fell) so I'm not expecting much impact today (I don't imagine his message will have changed much since Friday). He's already shown his hand - the market is calling his bluff and not allowing the Fed to backtrack after giving them the all clear last week. I read multiple articles this weekend from advisors congratulating their clients on sticking to their guns over the last 2 years. Yes, the market has gone nowhere in 2 years, but if you averaged in you did well, at least that's the mantra on the street right now. It's a huge relief for the markets to be back to 2022 levels...and it only took 2 years.
Posting that it couldn't have
Posted by DigiNomad on 18th of Dec 2023 at 01:02 pm
Posting that it couldn't have been a short term top because it wasn't wave 5 is something that is really only useful if posted before the next up move starts vs after the move. After the move, it's like...welp, I guess that wasn't a wave 5 since we didn't get a 3 wave pullback and just made a new high. Posting before a move is predictive with probabilities for outcomes that can be applied to a trading plan (just because you might think it's a wave 5 doesn't mean it will actually turn out that way). Posting after a move occurs is backwards looking information (hindsight is 20/20) that is likely to mislead others into thinking they aren't tracking correctly. Let me know if this doesn't make sense. Maybe I'm missing something.
*I'm making some assumptions because the actual wave count wasn't offered....only that it wasn't a wave 5. That makes me think it wasn't clear it wasn't a wave 5 until it was invalidated by the move (and yes, my count at the time was 5, but I wasn't positive about it so not surprised to be wrong...I never am with EWT).
It would be helpful if
Posted by vantraveler on 18th of Dec 2023 at 02:31 pm
It would be helpful if Matt and Steve gave more probability to direction on their chart analysis. I do hear Matt often suggest his opinion on which direction he favors on a chart. That is very helpful from an education standpoint. It validates or contradicts what I am thinking. It would be helpful to get a bit more of that from Steve as well. I understand the philosophy of trading the break. And I know Steve's comment to this post would be not to prognosticate, to simply act on price action. But on most charts, a technician should be able to look at all the indicators and have a thought on the general probability of price moving in a specific direction. Again, providing an emphasis and direction can assist members in particular trades and education. THX!