Posted by DigiNomad on 18th of Dec 2023 at 01:02 pm
Posting that it couldn't have been a short term top because it
wasn't wave 5 is something that is really only useful if posted
before the next up move starts vs after the move. After the
move, it's like...welp, I guess that wasn't a wave 5 since we
didn't get a 3 wave pullback and just made a new high. Posting
before a move is predictive with probabilities for outcomes that
can be applied to a trading plan (just because you might think it's
a wave 5 doesn't mean it will actually turn out that way). Posting
after a move occurs is backwards looking information (hindsight is
20/20) that is likely to mislead others into thinking they aren't
tracking correctly. Let me know if this doesn't make sense.
Maybe I'm missing something.
*I'm making some assumptions because the actual wave count
wasn't offered....only that it wasn't a wave 5. That makes me
think it wasn't clear it wasn't a wave 5 until it was invalidated
by the move (and yes, my count at the time was 5, but I wasn't
positive about it so not surprised to be wrong...I never am with
EWT).
Posted by vantraveler on 18th of Dec 2023 at 02:31 pm
It would be helpful if Matt and Steve gave more probability to
direction on their chart analysis. I do hear Matt often
suggest his opinion on which direction he favors on a chart. That
is very helpful from an education standpoint. It validates or
contradicts what I am thinking. It would be helpful to get a
bit more of that from Steve as well. I understand the
philosophy of trading the break. And I know Steve's comment
to this post would be not to prognosticate, to simply act on price
action. But on most charts, a technician should be able to
look at all the indicators and have a thought on the general
probability of price moving in a specific direction. Again,
providing an emphasis and direction can assist members in
particular trades and education. THX!
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Posting that it couldn't have
SPX 5 min
Posted by DigiNomad on 18th of Dec 2023 at 01:02 pm
Posting that it couldn't have been a short term top because it wasn't wave 5 is something that is really only useful if posted before the next up move starts vs after the move. After the move, it's like...welp, I guess that wasn't a wave 5 since we didn't get a 3 wave pullback and just made a new high. Posting before a move is predictive with probabilities for outcomes that can be applied to a trading plan (just because you might think it's a wave 5 doesn't mean it will actually turn out that way). Posting after a move occurs is backwards looking information (hindsight is 20/20) that is likely to mislead others into thinking they aren't tracking correctly. Let me know if this doesn't make sense. Maybe I'm missing something.
*I'm making some assumptions because the actual wave count wasn't offered....only that it wasn't a wave 5. That makes me think it wasn't clear it wasn't a wave 5 until it was invalidated by the move (and yes, my count at the time was 5, but I wasn't positive about it so not surprised to be wrong...I never am with EWT).
It would be helpful if
Posted by vantraveler on 18th of Dec 2023 at 02:31 pm
It would be helpful if Matt and Steve gave more probability to direction on their chart analysis. I do hear Matt often suggest his opinion on which direction he favors on a chart. That is very helpful from an education standpoint. It validates or contradicts what I am thinking. It would be helpful to get a bit more of that from Steve as well. I understand the philosophy of trading the break. And I know Steve's comment to this post would be not to prognosticate, to simply act on price action. But on most charts, a technician should be able to look at all the indicators and have a thought on the general probability of price moving in a specific direction. Again, providing an emphasis and direction can assist members in particular trades and education. THX!