Those are short term gyrations unless you mean we will wipe out
0000 points on monday back to 10500....Lot of bears keep whining
about debt. You guys just dont understand how worse it is in rest
of the world barring few countries
arun, The stock market has nothing to do with the economy. Buy
the rumor, sell the news on the debt ceiling. The move up has been
corrective. A running flat is still a corrective move. PSAR
trailing stop is at 13368-ish. I expect it to be approached next
week. 13407 to 13382 is the support that must hold on /NQ.
I am not good at playing the musical chairs near the top. I
prefer to gobble at the bottom on sale. Good luck to you!
Speaking of gold, what am I missing here? Rumors that the
debt ceiling will be raised should be bullish for gold. After
all it just means the US will borrow more...or in symbolic terms,
"print money". Similarly, if the debt ceiling is not raised
and the US defaults, the dollar will drop and the value of gold
should rise. In either scenario gold should be strong...and
yet it's not. What am I missing?
Posted by DigiNomad on 18th of May 2023 at 02:45 pm
Borrowing more and printing money are not the same thing. Two
different balance sheets in play - Fed and Treasury. It's easy to
conflate the two, but not accurate.
Gold does not rise because more money has been printed. Gold
does not rise when confidence in USD is present as a store of
value. Rising inflation will change that!
The difference is due to international buyers of debt. High
yield on USD attracts international buyers. With gold, the dynamic
is the opposite: Western Central Bank need to buy gold even more
than the rest of the world. Are they buying it yet? That is the
question. They are not selling because they have already sold
everything they could.
Posted by jackbnimble on 18th of May 2023 at 12:51 pm
You're right, permabears lose out in the long run. On the other
hand, people who respect the data and history (like those who
respect the trend) win out in the long run. Maybe this time is
different but, in my view, the market bottoms only after
unemployment rises and the FED cuts.
Posted by DigiNomad on 18th of May 2023 at 01:00 pm
Hate to be a stickler, but permabears have lost out in the long
run of the
American markets. The same cannot be
said universally around the world - in fact, we are more the
exception than the rule - and the youth of the United States are
literally pushing toward and glamorizing failed socialist utopias
where the population always says, "but our leader will be
different"....but it always ends with the same result (and
permabears, unfortunately, usually win)
Can the market remain irrational
NQ futures 52 week high...Bears convinced yet ?
Posted by jackbnimble on 18th of May 2023 at 11:38 am
Can the market remain irrational longer then I can remain solvent? We shall see:
There is no point to
Posted by junkie on 18th of May 2023 at 11:47 am
There is no point to stand in front of a freight train. /NQ target is about 14,000. I am trailing my stop.
Edit: /NQ will gap down on Monday erasing all the gains straight from the manipulation playbook used in early February. Fool me once..
Those are short term gyrations
Posted by arun on 18th of May 2023 at 11:54 am
Those are short term gyrations unless you mean we will wipe out 0000 points on monday back to 10500....Lot of bears keep whining about debt. You guys just dont understand how worse it is in rest of the world barring few countries
arun, The stock market has
Posted by junkie on 18th of May 2023 at 12:05 pm
arun, The stock market has nothing to do with the economy. Buy the rumor, sell the news on the debt ceiling. The move up has been corrective. A running flat is still a corrective move. PSAR trailing stop is at 13368-ish. I expect it to be approached next week. 13407 to 13382 is the support that must hold on /NQ.
I am not good at playing the musical chairs near the top. I prefer to gobble at the bottom on sale. Good luck to you!
I am def not buying
Posted by arun on 18th of May 2023 at 12:21 pm
I am def not buying here...
Janet Yellen can call J
Posted by srusso1 on 18th of May 2023 at 12:03 pm
Janet Yellen can call J Pow have him revalue gold per ounce and wipe out our debt and make us gold bug's ☺
Speaking of gold, what am
Posted by RichieD on 18th of May 2023 at 01:48 pm
Speaking of gold, what am I missing here? Rumors that the debt ceiling will be raised should be bullish for gold. After all it just means the US will borrow more...or in symbolic terms, "print money". Similarly, if the debt ceiling is not raised and the US defaults, the dollar will drop and the value of gold should rise. In either scenario gold should be strong...and yet it's not. What am I missing?
Borrowing more and printing money
Posted by DigiNomad on 18th of May 2023 at 02:45 pm
Borrowing more and printing money are not the same thing. Two different balance sheets in play - Fed and Treasury. It's easy to conflate the two, but not accurate.
QE wouldn't be a thing
Posted by DigiNomad on 18th of May 2023 at 03:03 pm
QE wouldn't be a thing if borrowing and money printing were synonymous.
Gold does not rise because
Posted by junkie on 18th of May 2023 at 03:14 pm
Gold does not rise because more money has been printed. Gold does not rise when confidence in USD is present as a store of value. Rising inflation will change that!
The difference is due to
Posted by junkie on 18th of May 2023 at 02:57 pm
The difference is due to international buyers of debt. High yield on USD attracts international buyers. With gold, the dynamic is the opposite: Western Central Bank need to buy gold even more than the rest of the world. Are they buying it yet? That is the question. They are not selling because they have already sold everything they could.
The correlation between the dollar
Posted by junkie on 18th of May 2023 at 02:04 pm
The correlation between the dollar and gold does not work any more since 1/1/23, at least. Paper gold ended on that date. It is a short squeeze since.
Edi: /GC holds above $1950 because Central banks are buying on dips. All of them. So far only Central banks.
We have been bearish about
Posted by arun on 18th of May 2023 at 11:42 am
We have been bearish about the economy for how long now ??? I lost track. That`s how bears work..same with gold bugs.
You're right, permabears lose out
Posted by jackbnimble on 18th of May 2023 at 12:51 pm
You're right, permabears lose out in the long run. On the other hand, people who respect the data and history (like those who respect the trend) win out in the long run. Maybe this time is different but, in my view, the market bottoms only after unemployment rises and the FED cuts.
Hate to be a stickler,
Posted by DigiNomad on 18th of May 2023 at 01:00 pm
Hate to be a stickler, but permabears have lost out in the long run of the American markets. The same cannot be said universally around the world - in fact, we are more the exception than the rule - and the youth of the United States are literally pushing toward and glamorizing failed socialist utopias where the population always says, "but our leader will be different"....but it always ends with the same result (and permabears, unfortunately, usually win)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CUfRwYcaL-k
I might be the only
Posted by DigiNomad on 18th of May 2023 at 01:10 pm
I might be the only FA in America that would dare suggest publicly that markets don't always go up in the long run