$GOLD - Chart Link- monthly - what I favor is
that a wave 5 started at the 2022 lows, and we've seen wave (1) of
5, eventually we'll see a pullback higher low wave (2) then off to
the races is 3 of 5.
gold looks good on the daily but I wonder how far it goes here?
I'm thinking gold on in the short-term doesn't just run away - it
could test the all time highs or even break them slightly but then
maybe get a pullback in later May - early July, which is the
seasonal weak time of year for gold, then BOOM off the the
races
Posted by DigiNomad on 3rd of May 2023 at 09:21 pm
Matt, I think any analysis of gold has to include an analysis of
the dollar. Right or wrong? The fed is going to be working behind
the scenes to support the dollar over the coming months. If they
don't, they're going to be doing double duty trying to keep
inflation tamped down without raising rates any further. I
think this is what potentially creates the scenario that you just
laid out for gold. The dollar, if the Fed is successful, will rally
surprisingly in the coming week and maybe months.
Posted by DigiNomad on 3rd of May 2023 at 09:28 pm
For anyone scoring predictions on this site, I'm definitely not
calling for a dollar rally. Yes, I think the fed will push for one
behind the scenes, but my confidence level on their success, and
therefore the path of the gold in the near to medium term, is about
50/50. For the record. Haha
Posted by timebandit on 3rd of May 2023 at 09:27 pm
At the same time, the debt ceiling situation has the potential
to overwhelm anything the Fed might do. A default means a devalued
dollar. I'm not saying the default happens, but as the threat of it
moves closer the dollar could weaken.
Posted by DigiNomad on 3rd of May 2023 at 09:34 pm
As a former fed, I get that they say the technology running
everything is so old they can't decide what to pay and what not to
pay in the event of a default. That said, if it actually did
happen, and it has in the past, sort of, they will find a way to
pay the treasury obligations in the form of bills, notes, bonds,
etc. That's only 12% of obligations currently although it's
expected to rise to 14% this year.
Posted by DigiNomad on 3rd of May 2023 at 10:57 pm
I worked in the Federal Gov for 20 years. Haha. I'm sure that
came across wrong :)
That said, by the time I left, I had enough experience
and seniority in various financial aspects of the fed gov to
know how I would deal with the archaic systems that don't allow for
easy "stop payments" on a case by case basis. In fact, much of the
system is still very manual. That means that if I wanted to limit
payments to say a certain type of defense contractors in a region,
I would simply call the DFAS that services that area and tell them
to suspend approvals in MOCAS (or one of the many other redundant
systems we used for payment processing). Would it be a pain in the
ass? Sure. Is it possible without too much trouble? Asolutely.
They tell us it's not possible purely as a scare tactic.
We've seen them selectively shut down the Gov on multiple
occassions just in the last couple of decades. I was working for
the American DoD in Australia in 2012/13 when the American Gov shut
down. Did they still pay for my hotel room? Of course. Almost
hilariously, because I was a Federal employee at the time, even
though they were paying my hotel room and per diem in Australia, I
wasn't allowed to go to work until the shutdown was over....and it
was strict orders...no fudging / free work allowed by patriots
allowed for any reason. Lol - I wasn't exactly upset about that,
nor was my new Aussie girlfriend at the time!!
Posted by retirefire on 4th of May 2023 at 08:35 am
The software for NYS DOH Office of Mental Health pharmacy
systems is about 15 years obsolete. To save money we use
software the VA stopped using over a decade ago. NYS made big
investment for auto dispensing equipment then couldn't interface
the software. We continue with patchwork job that always has
problems.
Newsletter
Subscribe to our email list for regular free market updates
as well as a chance to get coupons!
Gold thoughts/analysis
Posted by matt on 3rd of May 2023 at 07:35 pm
$GOLD - Chart Link- weekly view
$GOLD - Chart Link- monthly - what I favor is that a wave 5 started at the 2022 lows, and we've seen wave (1) of 5, eventually we'll see a pullback higher low wave (2) then off to the races is 3 of 5.
gold looks good on the daily but I wonder how far it goes here? I'm thinking gold on in the short-term doesn't just run away - it could test the all time highs or even break them slightly but then maybe get a pullback in later May - early July, which is the seasonal weak time of year for gold, then BOOM off the the races
Matt, I think any analysis
Posted by DigiNomad on 3rd of May 2023 at 09:21 pm
Matt, I think any analysis of gold has to include an analysis of the dollar. Right or wrong? The fed is going to be working behind the scenes to support the dollar over the coming months. If they don't, they're going to be doing double duty trying to keep inflation tamped down without raising rates any further. I think this is what potentially creates the scenario that you just laid out for gold. The dollar, if the Fed is successful, will rally surprisingly in the coming week and maybe months.
For anyone scoring predictions on
Posted by DigiNomad on 3rd of May 2023 at 09:28 pm
For anyone scoring predictions on this site, I'm definitely not calling for a dollar rally. Yes, I think the fed will push for one behind the scenes, but my confidence level on their success, and therefore the path of the gold in the near to medium term, is about 50/50. For the record. Haha
At the same time, the
Posted by timebandit on 3rd of May 2023 at 09:27 pm
At the same time, the debt ceiling situation has the potential to overwhelm anything the Fed might do. A default means a devalued dollar. I'm not saying the default happens, but as the threat of it moves closer the dollar could weaken.
As a former fed, I
Posted by DigiNomad on 3rd of May 2023 at 09:34 pm
As a former fed, I get that they say the technology running everything is so old they can't decide what to pay and what not to pay in the event of a default. That said, if it actually did happen, and it has in the past, sort of, they will find a way to pay the treasury obligations in the form of bills, notes, bonds, etc. That's only 12% of obligations currently although it's expected to rise to 14% this year.
you're a former Fed?
Posted by matt on 3rd of May 2023 at 09:43 pm
you're a former Fed?
I worked in the Federal
Posted by DigiNomad on 3rd of May 2023 at 10:57 pm
I worked in the Federal Gov for 20 years. Haha. I'm sure that came across wrong :)
That said, by the time I left, I had enough experience and seniority in various financial aspects of the fed gov to know how I would deal with the archaic systems that don't allow for easy "stop payments" on a case by case basis. In fact, much of the system is still very manual. That means that if I wanted to limit payments to say a certain type of defense contractors in a region, I would simply call the DFAS that services that area and tell them to suspend approvals in MOCAS (or one of the many other redundant systems we used for payment processing). Would it be a pain in the ass? Sure. Is it possible without too much trouble? Asolutely. They tell us it's not possible purely as a scare tactic. We've seen them selectively shut down the Gov on multiple occassions just in the last couple of decades. I was working for the American DoD in Australia in 2012/13 when the American Gov shut down. Did they still pay for my hotel room? Of course. Almost hilariously, because I was a Federal employee at the time, even though they were paying my hotel room and per diem in Australia, I wasn't allowed to go to work until the shutdown was over....and it was strict orders...no fudging / free work allowed by patriots allowed for any reason. Lol - I wasn't exactly upset about that, nor was my new Aussie girlfriend at the time!!
The software for NYS DOH
Posted by retirefire on 4th of May 2023 at 08:35 am
The software for NYS DOH Office of Mental Health pharmacy systems is about 15 years obsolete. To save money we use software the VA stopped using over a decade ago. NYS made big investment for auto dispensing equipment then couldn't interface the software. We continue with patchwork job that always has problems.