Matt, Would you please explain the indicators on the KISS
system. What do we use to tell when to go loan or get out?
I know a basic question but I just don't get it. I see
the STS is Smart Trailing Stop. Thanks
Hello Again Eddie - I'll attempt to answer some of your
questions here, however it might make sense for us to talk on the
phone, scheduled a quick private Zoom call where I can bring you on
my computer and answer your questions more directly might be the
best use of time vs me spending too much effort on an email. Let me
know if you would like to do that.
As far as the KISS charts - first off they are long only. They
were designed with a 401K type of plan in mind where you might
typically be long the index funds and they were designed to try and
catch bull market uptrends, while providing a protective stop to
avoid the 20% and 30% draw downs that occur, even in bull markets.
In bull markets things like SPY and QQQ stay long most of the time,
maybe the STS stops get hit 3 - 5 times a year, but then quickly
get back into the market. In bear markets like we are in now, the
indexes will generally go long for 1 or 2 months then stop out
again. Again that's for the indexes, some sectors and stocks can be
in bull market uptrends such as energy stocks last year the KISS
systems stayed long most of the year for instruments like XLE and
OIH.
As far as being able to tell if the system is long or not -
simply look at the chart and if you don't see a listed STS stop the
right side of the chart, then the system is flat for that
instrument. For SPX it's flat, for IWM daily it's flat. for QQQ
it's been long for a couple weeks. See attached images for
examples
The KISS systems can have really good entries at times, but not
always. I think the systems are best used as a guide if you are
already long the instrument and want an idea for a trailing type of
stop. But otherwise the systems have good entries, and at times
when they might go long when price is extended/overbought, I like
to wait a day or several days and try to buy a pullback.
There's various other indicators on the charts that are not
really part of the systems but are nice tools, such as the A's,
tend to show up when price is very overbought and prone to pulling
back, or if they occur on a sell off price is quite oversold and
due for a bounce. There's also the Demark counts, which are useful
when you see 9 and 13 counts. The MA ribbion is also very
useful and a great guide - especially when you see it pinch or get
too expanded.
here's an example of the KISS system on the SPX drawing the STS
in place (they used to be called DVT's) -this is a short video I
did without sound that shows the DVT's/STS's being placed as price
develops
Posted by fredsaid on 27th of Mar 2023 at 11:42 pm
Follow up to my post from yesterday on improving the 401k Kiss
Trend Following systems Web Links for clarity. Just add a
summary line with all the columns found on the basket (
https://breakpointtrades.com/ts/sts.php?chart_group=BPT_basket)
charts to what's at the top of each of the 401 sections. That
what be beauty. Not sure what the Yahoo column is for.
Matt, Would you please explain
Posted by jdeen on 27th of Mar 2023 at 05:24 pm
Matt, Would you please explain the indicators on the KISS system. What do we use to tell when to go loan or get out? I know a basic question but I just don't get it. I see the STS is Smart Trailing Stop. Thanks
jdeen - regarding your KISS
Posted by matt on 27th of Mar 2023 at 10:02 pm
jdeen - regarding your KISS system questions:
Hello Again Eddie - I'll attempt to answer some of your questions here, however it might make sense for us to talk on the phone, scheduled a quick private Zoom call where I can bring you on my computer and answer your questions more directly might be the best use of time vs me spending too much effort on an email. Let me know if you would like to do that.
As far as the KISS charts - first off they are long only. They were designed with a 401K type of plan in mind where you might typically be long the index funds and they were designed to try and catch bull market uptrends, while providing a protective stop to avoid the 20% and 30% draw downs that occur, even in bull markets. In bull markets things like SPY and QQQ stay long most of the time, maybe the STS stops get hit 3 - 5 times a year, but then quickly get back into the market. In bear markets like we are in now, the indexes will generally go long for 1 or 2 months then stop out again. Again that's for the indexes, some sectors and stocks can be in bull market uptrends such as energy stocks last year the KISS systems stayed long most of the year for instruments like XLE and OIH.
As far as being able to tell if the system is long or not - simply look at the chart and if you don't see a listed STS stop the right side of the chart, then the system is flat for that instrument. For SPX it's flat, for IWM daily it's flat. for QQQ it's been long for a couple weeks. See attached images for examples
The KISS systems can have really good entries at times, but not always. I think the systems are best used as a guide if you are already long the instrument and want an idea for a trailing type of stop. But otherwise the systems have good entries, and at times when they might go long when price is extended/overbought, I like to wait a day or several days and try to buy a pullback.
There's various other indicators on the charts that are not really part of the systems but are nice tools, such as the A's, tend to show up when price is very overbought and prone to pulling back, or if they occur on a sell off price is quite oversold and due for a bounce. There's also the Demark counts, which are useful when you see 9 and 13 counts. The MA ribbion is also very useful and a great guide - especially when you see it pinch or get too expanded.
here's an example of the KISS system on the SPX drawing the STS in place (they used to be called DVT's) -this is a short video I did without sound that shows the DVT's/STS's being placed as price develops
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V1664xCWUII
The STS basket we created expanded the KISS system from the SPX and QQQ to a basket of ETF's and stocks
https://breakpointtrades.com/ts/sts.php?chart_group=BPT_basket
WOW that was awesome
Posted by srusso1 on 28th of Mar 2023 at 09:30 am
WOW that was awesome
Follow up to my post
Posted by fredsaid on 27th of Mar 2023 at 11:42 pm
Follow up to my post from yesterday on improving the 401k Kiss Trend Following systems Web Links for clarity. Just add a summary line with all the columns found on the basket ( https://breakpointtrades.com/ts/sts.php?chart_group=BPT_basket) charts to what's at the top of each of the 401 sections. That what be beauty. Not sure what the Yahoo column is for.
Interesting AZO ORLY new longs
Posted by arun on 28th of Mar 2023 at 07:12 am
Interesting AZO ORLY new longs on kiss system. Makes sense why AAP ran up too
I will later tonight, it's
Posted by matt on 27th of Mar 2023 at 07:20 pm
I will later tonight, it's not a quick easy answer