the thing about MA crosses - one should almost never take them
when they occur because short-term price is always very overbought
for a long, or oversold for a short - so it's always best to wait
for the pullback then look for an entry, just like the one
that occurred in the SPX in early February. One who wishes to
follow an MA cross systems really needs to do a deep dive and go
look at every past signal, what happened with each one, and the
stats - most do not do that. I've tested so many MA cross systems
in the past that I know how they behave and their pitfalls, unless
you do that testing and investigation, you don't have a feel for
them. Also, a high number of MA crosses are whipsaws, so many are
just wrong and the ones that do work, you almost always get a
pullback right after the cross
Yes what Arun failed to mention is when he touted the SPX Golden
Cross near 4200 in early Feb (literally within a few days of
topping) and then fell 400 points. It marketed a trend
reversal DOWN - this type of rudimentary analysis is deeply flawed
as it does NOT produce consistent results.
personally I don't like things like the 'golden cross' because
they were created like 40 years ago before we could all plot charts
and indicators, when things were done by hand, it's just so
rudimentary and one of the few things they could do back then
just go to TradingView and use one of the many free MA cross
systems, and test a bunch of stuff with the 50/200 day MA, then go
look at the trades in the past.
I blame the media for giving the 50/200 cross the the name '
golden cross' because that makes the general public lazy and
think that it's very special, because it has the word 'golden in
it' so it's perfect and amazing'
everyone trading some signal needs to go investigate the data
themselves - again easy way is to go and use one of the free MA
cross strategies and test a bunch of them - nothing can replace you
physically examine the data yourself
Yes Matt... appreciate your input. And I do get the point
Steve and you are making here. I will also point out the
bearish crosses in future to cater to the bearish crowd lol...just
kidding
Junkie still feel we may rally into end of March ?
Sentiment is certainly trying to set up. I look at QQQ:SPY
ratio at 82 so that is going to have a tough time leading much more
.
The best objective EW view is a flat correction. I am still
entertaining a view of the leading diagonal.
I see a slow grind into the end of march because everyone is so
bearish. Very unlikely, we could dump after the FOMC next week. I
am ready for either one.
Those crosses are for longer term/intermediate term ..not short
term trading. Also they are not something created out of thin
air. When 50 day crosses 200 day it is a shift in trend. No
need to complicate that
Posted by fredsaid on 16th of Mar 2023 at 09:47 pm
I think this rally is gonna bite the dust no matter what the Fed
does next week. Hold = panic, things are worse than
expected. 50 = holy crap, we have a long way to go and the
fed is confused. 25 = really with all the regional bank
trouble he still raises rates. It's a lose, lose, lose setup
for the Fed. Like i said before, he needs to do 50, anything
else (which now looks likely) will spell even bigger trouble down
the road. Heck, raise 100 and back stop all the banks with
100 trillion - the latter is gonna happen anyway.
QQQ golden cross That QQQ cross
Posted by arun on 16th of Mar 2023 at 07:23 pm
QQQ golden cross
That QQQ cross I pointed out last week wasn’t a fake out.
the thing about MA crosses
Posted by matt on 16th of Mar 2023 at 07:37 pm
the thing about MA crosses - one should almost never take them when they occur because short-term price is always very overbought for a long, or oversold for a short - so it's always best to wait for the pullback then look for an entry, just like the one that occurred in the SPX in early February. One who wishes to follow an MA cross systems really needs to do a deep dive and go look at every past signal, what happened with each one, and the stats - most do not do that. I've tested so many MA cross systems in the past that I know how they behave and their pitfalls, unless you do that testing and investigation, you don't have a feel for them. Also, a high number of MA crosses are whipsaws, so many are just wrong and the ones that do work, you almost always get a pullback right after the cross
Excellent point!
Posted by brophy on 17th of Mar 2023 at 07:57 am
Excellent point!
I agree about the whipsaw
Posted by arun on 16th of Mar 2023 at 08:47 pm
I agree about the whipsaw part Matt. I was under the assumption that usually major MA crossovers do lead to changes in trend.
Yes what Arun failed to
Posted by steve on 17th of Mar 2023 at 08:46 am
Yes what Arun failed to mention is when he touted the SPX Golden Cross near 4200 in early Feb (literally within a few days of topping) and then fell 400 points. It marketed a trend reversal DOWN - this type of rudimentary analysis is deeply flawed as it does NOT produce consistent results.
Can you share me the
Posted by arun on 17th of Mar 2023 at 10:14 am
Can you share me the link where I had mentioned SPX golden cross ?
personally I don't like things
Posted by matt on 17th of Mar 2023 at 10:19 am
personally I don't like things like the 'golden cross' because they were created like 40 years ago before we could all plot charts and indicators, when things were done by hand, it's just so rudimentary and one of the few things they could do back then
No simple technique like the
Posted by junkie on 17th of Mar 2023 at 10:31 am
No simple technique like the gold cross has worked since 2021 in a carefully and deliberately manipulated market.
just go to TradingView and
Posted by matt on 17th of Mar 2023 at 10:35 am
just go to TradingView and use one of the many free MA cross systems, and test a bunch of stuff with the 50/200 day MA, then go look at the trades in the past.
I blame the media for giving the 50/200 cross the the name ' golden cross' because that makes the general public lazy and think that it's very special, because it has the word 'golden in it' so it's perfect and amazing'
everyone trading some signal needs to go investigate the data themselves - again easy way is to go and use one of the free MA cross strategies and test a bunch of them - nothing can replace you physically examine the data yourself
Yes Matt... appreciate your input.
Posted by arun on 17th of Mar 2023 at 11:08 am
Yes Matt... appreciate your input. And I do get the point Steve and you are making here. I will also point out the bearish crosses in future to cater to the bearish crowd lol...just kidding
Junkie still feel we may
Posted by rbreese on 17th of Mar 2023 at 10:34 am
Junkie still feel we may rally into end of March ? Sentiment is certainly trying to set up. I look at QQQ:SPY ratio at 82 so that is going to have a tough time leading much more .
The best objective EW view
Posted by junkie on 17th of Mar 2023 at 10:41 am
The best objective EW view is a flat correction. I am still entertaining a view of the leading diagonal.
I see a slow grind into the end of march because everyone is so bearish. Very unlikely, we could dump after the FOMC next week. I am ready for either one.
Agreed up grind higher and
Posted by rbreese on 17th of Mar 2023 at 10:44 am
Agreed up grind higher and most often we have a rally into FED meeting too. Thanks.
If something is warning about
Posted by junkie on 17th of Mar 2023 at 10:49 am
If something is warning about a dump, it is /GC. If the double top at 1966 breaks to the upside, all bets are off on the market.
Those crosses are for longer
Posted by arun on 17th of Mar 2023 at 10:34 am
Those crosses are for longer term/intermediate term ..not short term trading. Also they are not something created out of thin air. When 50 day crosses 200 day it is a shift in trend. No need to complicate that
I think this rally is
Posted by fredsaid on 16th of Mar 2023 at 09:47 pm
I think this rally is gonna bite the dust no matter what the Fed does next week. Hold = panic, things are worse than expected. 50 = holy crap, we have a long way to go and the fed is confused. 25 = really with all the regional bank trouble he still raises rates. It's a lose, lose, lose setup for the Fed. Like i said before, he needs to do 50, anything else (which now looks likely) will spell even bigger trouble down the road. Heck, raise 100 and back stop all the banks with 100 trillion - the latter is gonna happen anyway.
Fred looks like you are
Posted by rbreese on 17th of Mar 2023 at 07:38 am
Fred looks like you are spot on again with your market call .