good morning everyone, I'm posting this again as an early FYI on
the reversion to mean systems:
1. The SPY bear long may take a 2nd entry today if prices stay
down by the close (upper left chart)
2. SPY Strap might take a 1st entry long (bottom left)
3. ES bear long ver 2 and Strap show potential 1st entries as
well (right side) and the Stoch short closed out yesterday
for ES remember that on Friday it closes at 5 pm EST and does
not reopen at 6 pm like it does Mon-Thur, therefore anyone trading
MES would have to take the trade before 5 pm, or wait until Sunday
evening. If trading ETF's in place of MES, no problem as they trade
until 8 pm in after hrs even on Friday
as far as systems guys, the Strap only takes pullbacks in short
term uptrends, after today's pullback if prices close down here or
lower the Strap long I was seeing early would be negated and ONLY
the bear longs systems would be taking an entry
- SPY bear long 2nd entry
- ES bear long 1st entry
I take that back, I'm now not setting the ES bear long, Straps
are negated as pullback is too deep, only 2nd entry SPY bear long
for now, again it could come back early still for ES
Posted by timebandit on 16th of Dec 2022 at 10:39 am
Thanks for the heads up! The systems always add timely reminders
that this is not a one-way street.
Another thing to keep in mind is that selloffs on Opex Friday
often, but not always, have some continuation Monday morning. I
haven't checked this for behavior after Quad Witch opex. Also,
there's a lot left in this trading day, so we'll see where it
closes
Posted by timebandit on 16th of Dec 2022 at 11:14 am
Okay, I checked the last 5 years. Of those 20 Quad Witch
Fridays, 15 were red. Eleven of the Mondays following those 15 red
Opex Fridays were also red.
So the percentages favor a red Monday if we close red today. The
number is 73%.
Note that in 2018, the Monday after the December Quad Witch was
December 24, which was a big down day but marked the bottom of that
selloff, and the rip-roaring Santa rally started December 26.
yeah but what to investigate is what they did intra day - my
guess would be not a straight trend day all day , but down morning
bounce afternoon stuff like that more chop vs all trend day as the
options start to square up in the afternoon that causes price
moves
Posted by fredsaid on 16th of Dec 2022 at 11:23 am
What - no Friday Flush ? Say it ain't so. Expecting
chop rest of today... if we can get back up to 3870 will look to
re-enter shorts. Very interesting research on Quad Witch.
Posted by timebandit on 16th of Dec 2022 at 11:18 am
Yes, for sure. There were a handful of Quad Witch dates that
were big selloff days, such as December 21, 2018 and March 20,
2020. The Mondays after those two both marked the bottom. Maybe
I'll look for those over a longer time period later
That year (2018) was the last unseasonal December for stocks. I
remember because I worked 14 hours that day buying stocks for
clients on Christmas Eve. We were down about 20% from the highs at
that point. It turned out to be an amazing buy and period to come
with that inventory. Just terrible having to do that over the
holidays though it was what it was. Stuff like that is why I'm glad
to no longer be in the business. It is hard to outperform machines
with all the regulation too, tons of work. You need a team and I
didn't want to hire people above and beyond the support staff for
my practice.
Sounds like you had an interesting and challenging career about
30 years after mine. I traded for a large Pension fund
manager and did everything by hand.
I don't know how interesting it was haha That's cool, thank you
for sharing. I've enjoyed talking to some guys who were around in
the last generations in markets. Yes,times have changed though
depending on how you are set up, they don't make it easy for doing
business with all the hoops you have to jump through to stay
compliant doing the actual business. And with so much risk for not
getting that part right, it created a lot of stress.
..couldn't just sit back and not help people rebalance their
portfolios when the opportunity was there to do so (during times of
extremes). A good fit for the clients though ultimately I burned
out after a few decades. I started my financial career in banking,
those were fun times. I remember when 7% money market accounts were
around and being hungry to bank everyone in the city. Our teams did
some amazing things, all in serving our customers' best
interests.
I think the good thing about looking back through the past to
the present is I gain perspective in life. There are times when you
have to navigate a lot of difficulty for a period, though it is a
chance to grow as a person, there is a lot of good on the other
side of it, and a lot to be grateful for everyday.
Hard for people to imagine but the exchange was closed on a
regular basis because back office could not keep up with all the
paperwork and no computers of course.
SPY and ES systems early heads up
Posted by matt on 16th of Dec 2022 at 10:07 am
good morning everyone, I'm posting this again as an early FYI on the reversion to mean systems:
1. The SPY bear long may take a 2nd entry today if prices stay down by the close (upper left chart)
2. SPY Strap might take a 1st entry long (bottom left)
3. ES bear long ver 2 and Strap show potential 1st entries as well (right side) and the Stoch short closed out yesterday
for ES remember that on Friday it closes at 5 pm EST and does not reopen at 6 pm like it does Mon-Thur, therefore anyone trading MES would have to take the trade before 5 pm, or wait until Sunday evening. If trading ETF's in place of MES, no problem as they trade until 8 pm in after hrs even on Friday
remember today is Quad Witch - expect volatility
as far as systems guys,
Posted by matt on 16th of Dec 2022 at 02:40 pm
as far as systems guys, the Strap only takes pullbacks in short term uptrends, after today's pullback if prices close down here or lower the Strap long I was seeing early would be negated and ONLY the bear longs systems would be taking an entry
- SPY bear long 2nd entry
- ES bear long 1st entry
I take that back, I'm
Posted by matt on 16th of Dec 2022 at 02:44 pm
I take that back, I'm now not setting the ES bear long, Straps are negated as pullback is too deep, only 2nd entry SPY bear long for now, again it could come back early still for ES
Thanks for the heads up!
Posted by timebandit on 16th of Dec 2022 at 10:39 am
Thanks for the heads up! The systems always add timely reminders that this is not a one-way street.
Another thing to keep in mind is that selloffs on Opex Friday often, but not always, have some continuation Monday morning. I haven't checked this for behavior after Quad Witch opex. Also, there's a lot left in this trading day, so we'll see where it closes
Okay, I checked the last
Posted by timebandit on 16th of Dec 2022 at 11:14 am
Okay, I checked the last 5 years. Of those 20 Quad Witch Fridays, 15 were red. Eleven of the Mondays following those 15 red Opex Fridays were also red.
So the percentages favor a red Monday if we close red today. The number is 73%.
Note that in 2018, the Monday after the December Quad Witch was December 24, which was a big down day but marked the bottom of that selloff, and the rip-roaring Santa rally started December 26.
yeah but what to investigate
Posted by matt on 16th of Dec 2022 at 11:17 am
yeah but what to investigate is what they did intra day - my guess would be not a straight trend day all day , but down morning bounce afternoon stuff like that more chop vs all trend day as the options start to square up in the afternoon that causes price moves
What - no Friday Flush
Posted by fredsaid on 16th of Dec 2022 at 11:23 am
What - no Friday Flush ? Say it ain't so. Expecting chop rest of today... if we can get back up to 3870 will look to re-enter shorts. Very interesting research on Quad Witch.
obviously being a Friday in
Posted by matt on 16th of Dec 2022 at 11:25 am
obviously being a Friday in a bear market is never a positive (nervous nellies for weekend)
otherwise view my 15 min wave count below
Yes, for sure. There were
Posted by timebandit on 16th of Dec 2022 at 11:18 am
Yes, for sure. There were a handful of Quad Witch dates that were big selloff days, such as December 21, 2018 and March 20, 2020. The Mondays after those two both marked the bottom. Maybe I'll look for those over a longer time period later
That year (2018) was the
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 16th of Dec 2022 at 11:22 am
That year (2018) was the last unseasonal December for stocks. I remember because I worked 14 hours that day buying stocks for clients on Christmas Eve. We were down about 20% from the highs at that point. It turned out to be an amazing buy and period to come with that inventory. Just terrible having to do that over the holidays though it was what it was. Stuff like that is why I'm glad to no longer be in the business. It is hard to outperform machines with all the regulation too, tons of work. You need a team and I didn't want to hire people above and beyond the support staff for my practice.
Sounds like you had an
Posted by rbreese on 16th of Dec 2022 at 11:31 am
Sounds like you had an interesting and challenging career about 30 years after mine. I traded for a large Pension fund manager and did everything by hand.
I don't know how interesting
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 16th of Dec 2022 at 11:45 am
I don't know how interesting it was haha That's cool, thank you for sharing. I've enjoyed talking to some guys who were around in the last generations in markets. Yes,times have changed though depending on how you are set up, they don't make it easy for doing business with all the hoops you have to jump through to stay compliant doing the actual business. And with so much risk for not getting that part right, it created a lot of stress.
..couldn't just sit back and not help people rebalance their portfolios when the opportunity was there to do so (during times of extremes). A good fit for the clients though ultimately I burned out after a few decades. I started my financial career in banking, those were fun times. I remember when 7% money market accounts were around and being hungry to bank everyone in the city. Our teams did some amazing things, all in serving our customers' best interests.
I think the good thing about looking back through the past to the present is I gain perspective in life. There are times when you have to navigate a lot of difficulty for a period, though it is a chance to grow as a person, there is a lot of good on the other side of it, and a lot to be grateful for everyday.
Hard for people to imagine
Posted by rbreese on 16th of Dec 2022 at 11:53 am
Hard for people to imagine but the exchange was closed on a regular basis because back office could not keep up with all the paperwork and no computers of course.
Wow, I had not heard
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 16th of Dec 2022 at 11:55 am
Wow, I had not heard that before. I think there would be some good in more breaks from work in general.
Nice homework but before Algos
Posted by rbreese on 16th of Dec 2022 at 11:16 am
Nice homework but before Algos it was 100 percent that people in middle America would get the delayed bad news and Monday was big dump too.
The margin calls also come
Posted by timebandit on 16th of Dec 2022 at 11:17 am
The margin calls also come Monday morning
thanks for the info
Posted by pageo1 on 16th of Dec 2022 at 11:15 am
thanks for the info
That's a good call for
Posted by fredsaid on 16th of Dec 2022 at 10:42 am
That's a good call for Monday but if this is a wave v of 3 that makes me wonder. Hopefully the systems will do something eod.