Fed is not backing down they can't inflation has hardly budged.
We had a Bradley turn date on 10/20 it was inverted which means
next turn date is 11/4 which means we head south. It will take
years to fix this mess no a couple months. Diesel now at a 25 day
supply and we have depleted the oil reserves to what 40 year lows
to buy votes. Momma went to costco yesterday they had no chickens
ZERO nada they said shortage than she went to get eggs no eggs ZERO
nada what is coming is after election oil going up again and guess
what that adds to inflation and shortages will start on food why
farmers can't get diesel and or pay for fertilizer they can't get.
You can't fix stupid but we all are going to pay. The VIX closed
out of it's bollinger bands friday let's see if they let it close
back in today. Been a while since i been on here as we traveling
around the country thinking of relocating now i can't afford to
fill my 100 gal tank on my diesel pusher so she parked. Thai whole
thing is a total cluster you no what................
Posted by donkeyface on 31st of Oct 2022 at 02:46 pm
I don't see how they could back down. Total speculation
but doesn't it seem like it's even easier for FED to be and remain
hawkish after a rally like Fridays?
Posted by DigiNomad on 31st of Oct 2022 at 03:00 pm
Agree that recent rally helped the Fed maintain their hawkish
stance. This is goldilocks for them. I'm guessing they are hoping
they can keep up this kind of pressure for about another year while
only taking the market down another 25% or so. I'd guess their
terminal rate is bit over 6 (has to be above CPI) and they hope to
achieve that by this time next year with a mixture of 50 and 25
basis point raises.
"Soft Landing" hasn't been defined, but I think the scenario
above would qualify. "Hard Landing" is something breaking along the
way and the Fed not being able to follow through on policy
necessary to stem the tide on the inflation front.
Newsletter
Subscribe to our email list for regular free market updates
as well as a chance to get coupons!
Fed is not backing down
Posted by RP on 31st of Oct 2022 at 02:41 pm
Fed is not backing down they can't inflation has hardly budged. We had a Bradley turn date on 10/20 it was inverted which means next turn date is 11/4 which means we head south. It will take years to fix this mess no a couple months. Diesel now at a 25 day supply and we have depleted the oil reserves to what 40 year lows to buy votes. Momma went to costco yesterday they had no chickens ZERO nada they said shortage than she went to get eggs no eggs ZERO nada what is coming is after election oil going up again and guess what that adds to inflation and shortages will start on food why farmers can't get diesel and or pay for fertilizer they can't get. You can't fix stupid but we all are going to pay. The VIX closed out of it's bollinger bands friday let's see if they let it close back in today. Been a while since i been on here as we traveling around the country thinking of relocating now i can't afford to fill my 100 gal tank on my diesel pusher so she parked. Thai whole thing is a total cluster you no what................
nice to see you back
Posted by matt on 31st of Oct 2022 at 03:34 pm
nice to see you back RP and thanks for posting your other observations
Good to here from you
Posted by retirefire on 31st of Oct 2022 at 03:08 pm
Good to here from you RP, hope you enjoying retirement
I don't see how they
Posted by donkeyface on 31st of Oct 2022 at 02:46 pm
I don't see how they could back down. Total speculation but doesn't it seem like it's even easier for FED to be and remain hawkish after a rally like Fridays?
Agree that recent rally helped
Posted by DigiNomad on 31st of Oct 2022 at 03:00 pm
Agree that recent rally helped the Fed maintain their hawkish stance. This is goldilocks for them. I'm guessing they are hoping they can keep up this kind of pressure for about another year while only taking the market down another 25% or so. I'd guess their terminal rate is bit over 6 (has to be above CPI) and they hope to achieve that by this time next year with a mixture of 50 and 25 basis point raises.
"Soft Landing" hasn't been defined, but I think the scenario above would qualify. "Hard Landing" is something breaking along the way and the Fed not being able to follow through on policy necessary to stem the tide on the inflation front.