Posted by DigiNomad on 18th of Aug 2022 at 09:19 pm
I watch him every Friday. However, his charts don't cover
similar periods...most don't go back beyond 2000. I would
argue there are no analogous periods to what we are experiencing
today. The Fed and Congress really made a mess of things with their
overreaction and then got behind the curve when the damage they had
done became apparent (to everyone but them).
His data sometime goes back to 1950’s if I remember
correctly
But I wasn’t referring to Chris. I am pointing out to the chart
link Matt posted.
there is a lot of bearish headlines out there and maybe
that’s why market is going up.
bottom line we should leave the headlines and fundamentals
bullshit to the assholes in DC. Let’s just trade technicals and
make money.
He did no such thing and you should state the truth.
Please, the statement by him was the low "may" with emphasis
be in place so please adjust your statement below to reflect his
actual comments. I like examining the historical stats but he made
a case after the first pullback and subsequent bounce only to see
new lows. My suggestion is to incorporate such stats into
your plan if you find useful. Again, all that matters is YOUR PLAN.
I could show you many contras to simply only looking at
historical probabilities. Such as, what were the FED
actions and valuations at the previous lows? Was the SPX
already trading at 18x projected earnings that may need to be
adjusted downward? He sites the last 40 years but excludes the last
time inflation was this high and what unfolded in 1973 as a result.
Never in history was there a planned QT of billions every month,
the only time it was attempted was in 2018 and the market
puked. Have you examined what has transpired with consumer debt
levels just the past few months? It's scary the amount of debt they
have accumulated. See Michael Burry tweet from just this week for
more details.
So my point is to keep an open mind and respect the prevailing
trend which is up until evidence changes. This has been the case
since the first higher low after which projected a move to at least
4230 and also the 20p day MA. I have stated ad nauseum over
the past many days to monitor the rising channel just as a initial
gauge which continues upward.. Refrain from getting emotional
and spend time refining your approach as that's what matters to
you.
To conclude, the only thing that matters to you is your plan not
what others say. So focus on your trading style and adjust if
necessary according to new evidence . Project, monitor, adjust.
Best wishes
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Ciovacco declares bottom is in. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ITDzmzes8I
Posted by mborder1 on 13th of Aug 2022 at 10:25 am
Ciovacco declares bottom is in.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ITDzmzes8I
I watch him every Friday.
Posted by DigiNomad on 18th of Aug 2022 at 09:19 pm
I watch him every Friday. However, his charts don't cover similar periods...most don't go back beyond 2000. I would argue there are no analogous periods to what we are experiencing today. The Fed and Congress really made a mess of things with their overreaction and then got behind the curve when the damage they had done became apparent (to everyone but them).
His data sometime goes back
Posted by arun on 18th of Aug 2022 at 09:39 pm
His data sometime goes back to 1950’s if I remember correctly
But I wasn’t referring to Chris. I am pointing out to the chart link Matt posted.
there is a lot of bearish headlines out there and maybe that’s why market is going up.
bottom line we should leave the headlines and fundamentals bullshit to the assholes in DC. Let’s just trade technicals and make money.
This post marked a top...FUNDAMENTALS
Posted by steve on 22nd of Sep 2022 at 05:28 am
This post marked a top...FUNDAMENTALS MATTER
Well said Arun.
Posted by rfa300 on 18th of Aug 2022 at 11:27 pm
Well said Arun.
That chart I first posted
Posted by matt on 17th of Aug 2022 at 07:14 pm
That chart I first posted back in May and June - looks like he basically uses the same charts
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NAHL&p=W&yr=16&mn=3&dy=0&id=p32431723051&a=1170103378&listNum=27
Let’s see this for example. https://schrts.co/EMbcVgua This
Posted by arun on 18th of Aug 2022 at 09:15 pm
Let’s see this for example.
https://schrts.co/EMbcVgua
This is one of a more reliable indicators. How can we switch gears to net short when you have something like this.
That’s correct Matt. Actually I
Posted by arun on 17th of Aug 2022 at 08:01 pm
That’s correct Matt. Actually I see similar chart in many publications now.
He did no such thing
Posted by steve on 13th of Aug 2022 at 11:11 am
He did no such thing and you should state the truth. Please, the statement by him was the low "may" with emphasis be in place so please adjust your statement below to reflect his actual comments. I like examining the historical stats but he made a case after the first pullback and subsequent bounce only to see new lows. My suggestion is to incorporate such stats into your plan if you find useful. Again, all that matters is YOUR PLAN.
I could show you many contras to simply only looking at historical probabilities. Such as, what were the FED actions and valuations at the previous lows? Was the SPX already trading at 18x projected earnings that may need to be adjusted downward? He sites the last 40 years but excludes the last time inflation was this high and what unfolded in 1973 as a result. Never in history was there a planned QT of billions every month, the only time it was attempted was in 2018 and the market puked. Have you examined what has transpired with consumer debt levels just the past few months? It's scary the amount of debt they have accumulated. See Michael Burry tweet from just this week for more details.
So my point is to keep an open mind and respect the prevailing trend which is up until evidence changes. This has been the case since the first higher low after which projected a move to at least 4230 and also the 20p day MA. I have stated ad nauseum over the past many days to monitor the rising channel just as a initial gauge which continues upward.. Refrain from getting emotional and spend time refining your approach as that's what matters to you.
To conclude, the only thing that matters to you is your plan not what others say. So focus on your trading style and adjust if necessary according to new evidence . Project, monitor, adjust.
Best wishes