Posted by timebandit on 21st of Jul 2022 at 07:33 am
I do know that the character of the market has changed in the
last couple weeks or so. The first indication to me was when we had
a ramp into end of day and the next day did not sell off. There
have been some tells like that. Walt mentioned that this hasn't
felt like a bear market rally, and I agree.
That said, this is an indicator I am watching now. It's worked
twice in this bear. Can it go 3-for-3?
Posted by DigiNomad on 20th of Jul 2022 at 08:10 pm
Did the indicator go positive in previous bear market rallies of
significant magnitude? Seems like it might on the bigger / longer
term rallies...and I'm not thinking of the V rallies like we
had out of March 2020 since that was 100% manufactured by the
global central banks.
during the 2000 - late 2002 time frame it went above zero nicely
several times on those rallies. 2008 is probably more of an
outlier given how weak that year was
again this is one indicator, you need to get a trigger off
price, a confirmation, not just the indicator
Posted by DigiNomad on 20th of Jul 2022 at 09:13 pm
Thanks - appreciate the follow up! (I chose TradingView
over Stockcharts...would love to hear why that was a bad or good
move).I know history doesn't necessarily repeat, but it often
rhymes. It looks like maybe we're entering a period similar to
March through June 2008. I'm a huge bear in the medium term
and think the messaging in the media about how we're near a bottom
is nonsense given these economic circumstance haven't occurred in
40+ years, if ever (e..g. forward returns after pullbacks of this
magnitude are followed by major gains 90% of the time, blah blah
blah). The Fed is not coming to the rescue...that's all we need to
know. BUT....market mechanics are such that the bull side
needs to gain more followers before the market can move lower.
Paradoxically, markets typically bottom when sellers exhaust
themselves and only buyers are left. Sellers are currently somewhat
exhausted and need to recharge, IMO.
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Posted by matt on 20th of Jul 2022 at 07:08 pm
$COMPQ - Chart Link yep that's pretty close to zero
I do know that the
Posted by timebandit on 21st of Jul 2022 at 07:33 am
I do know that the character of the market has changed in the last couple weeks or so. The first indication to me was when we had a ramp into end of day and the next day did not sell off. There have been some tells like that. Walt mentioned that this hasn't felt like a bear market rally, and I agree.
That said, this is an indicator I am watching now. It's worked twice in this bear. Can it go 3-for-3?
It already is 3 for
Posted by drmolar on 21st of Jul 2022 at 09:23 am
It already is 3 for 3 if you look back to Feb where it breeched the line
Did the indicator go positive
Posted by DigiNomad on 20th of Jul 2022 at 08:10 pm
Did the indicator go positive in previous bear market rallies of significant magnitude? Seems like it might on the bigger / longer term rallies...and I'm not thinking of the V rallies like we had out of March 2020 since that was 100% manufactured by the global central banks.
here's the 2008 time frame.
Posted by matt on 20th of Jul 2022 at 08:36 pm
here's the 2008 time frame. Again if you have a STockcharts.commembership you can simply go back and look yourself
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&st=2007-05-01&en=2008-12-16&id=p12244937733&a=1138583279&listNum=27
during the 2000 - late 2002 time frame it went above zero nicely several times on those rallies. 2008 is probably more of an outlier given how weak that year was
again this is one indicator, you need to get a trigger off price, a confirmation, not just the indicator
Thanks - appreciate the follow
Posted by DigiNomad on 20th of Jul 2022 at 09:13 pm
Thanks - appreciate the follow up! (I chose TradingView over Stockcharts...would love to hear why that was a bad or good move).I know history doesn't necessarily repeat, but it often rhymes. It looks like maybe we're entering a period similar to March through June 2008. I'm a huge bear in the medium term and think the messaging in the media about how we're near a bottom is nonsense given these economic circumstance haven't occurred in 40+ years, if ever (e..g. forward returns after pullbacks of this magnitude are followed by major gains 90% of the time, blah blah blah). The Fed is not coming to the rescue...that's all we need to know. BUT....market mechanics are such that the bull side needs to gain more followers before the market can move lower. Paradoxically, markets typically bottom when sellers exhaust themselves and only buyers are left. Sellers are currently somewhat exhausted and need to recharge, IMO.