3309 Drysdale Ct
Edwardsville, IL 62025
Steve, as you suggested a month or two back, I think a couple of
circuit breaker down days would be needed before the PPT steps in
(you suggested the circuit breaker days previously, I'm just
conflating that commentary with the PPT commentary)
Yep - some capitulation unfolding but the darn VIX remains
stubborn - prefer to see that dry heave. Level to level with
an open mind
Real fear and a spike in VIX to the correction high sets
in at the early part of the downturn and then levels off before a
market bottom is made. This makes sense, since VIX measures
the expected volatility over the next 30 days. The rule of 16 says
that VIX/16 is the expected average daily volatility implied from
the value (with one standard deviation). VIX = 32 implies a market
pricing in daily swings of 2% over the next 30 days (or 21 trading
days). That is unusually high. We have had a few days exceeding
that by far, but on average, 2% daily is still VERY high. Of course
anything is possible in this market...
It's extremely high for sure and I will point out that this year
the days that follow the VIX expiration (Wednesday) have been
especially brutal - much has been purged during this unwind
- apathy has certainly set in for many. All part of the
process. Bigger picture though - this may just be the first
leg of a multi year unwind since the bubble was formed over a
decade plus. I'm certainly in the camp that we are closer now
to a sustained rally - started making a list of some names
and taking it level to level. Thanks for the
This correction started over a year ago with many smaller names
(soldiers) and more recently has shot the Generals.
Steve - would be great to see some projections for next couple
of months in terms of what you see as bounce tgt ge as well as
which names you are looking at ,,,, maybe you have shared before
but I am a newer sub
I'm a trader not a forecaster...traders put real capital at risk
while forecasters do not but like to talk on TV. What's most
important is for you to develop a methodology that works for you.
You can incorporate our analysis into the plan. Please read sticky
shaded yellow post above for additional input.
For tomorrow, my key levels are 3650 support and 3720
resistance. Above or below can lead to decent moves in those
We were targeting 3500/3600 area on this decline a few months
back and until a bottom is confirmed it's hard to project any
retracement targets. See your private inbox as well.
Hi Steve - did not see anything in my email
Check you inbox here on the site - click on the inbox above (as
a new member you should take time to review the site tutorial prior
to anything else)
Wise words. The levels are really helpful, thanks.
Also helpful are the SPY systems: genius.
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