there are also commonalities - they all retraced at minimum 38%
of previous bull markets - just a 38% retrace of the move off the
2009 lows is 3200, and all are some sort of ABC wave structure.
Some deep bear markets retrace 5 - 12 years of index gains. The
shallow ones retrace at least 2 - 3 years of gains - putting that
into context comment sense, the SPX has only retraced back 1 year
of gains - so is that anywhere close, nope
Morgan Stanley TA analyst has had a target of 3700 - but if you
just use some comment sense -3700 is late 2020 prices - is that
really enough to wash out all this crap? I think before all is said
and done we'll see a complete retrace of the Mar 2020 low maybe
even to the lower 2000's for SPX - again that's over maybe a couple
year period
Posted by kevindeng0727 on 9th of May 2022 at 11:04 am
though during the 2008 time period I don't think we had any of
those trigger in that way, simply because the market didn't have
rallies that lasted long enough for them to do so - most of those
occurred early stages of new bull markets, or after washout
conditions in bull markets
anyway - should one of those ever trigger - they only do so
after a momentum condition is triggered and after the initial trade
is nicely profitable - and stops are employed so there's really no
risk to them
there are also commonalities -
Thanks for all your work on the weekend newsletter, Matt. ...
Posted by matt on 9th of May 2022 at 10:18 am
there are also commonalities - they all retraced at minimum 38% of previous bull markets - just a 38% retrace of the move off the 2009 lows is 3200, and all are some sort of ABC wave structure. Some deep bear markets retrace 5 - 12 years of index gains. The shallow ones retrace at least 2 - 3 years of gains - putting that into context comment sense, the SPX has only retraced back 1 year of gains - so is that anywhere close, nope
Morgan Stanley TA analyst has had a target of 3700 - but if you just use some comment sense -3700 is late 2020 prices - is that really enough to wash out all this crap? I think before all is said and done we'll see a complete retrace of the Mar 2020 low maybe even to the lower 2000's for SPX - again that's over maybe a couple year period
Posted by kevindeng0727 on 9th of May 2022 at 11:04 am
I second that! Great data,
Posted by tradeit007 on 9th of May 2022 at 11:45 am
I second that! Great data, Matt, but your verbals are my keys.
though during the 2008 time
Posted by matt on 9th of May 2022 at 11:47 am
though during the 2008 time period I don't think we had any of those trigger in that way, simply because the market didn't have rallies that lasted long enough for them to do so - most of those occurred early stages of new bull markets, or after washout conditions in bull markets
anyway - should one of those ever trigger - they only do so after a momentum condition is triggered and after the initial trade is nicely profitable - and stops are employed so there's really no risk to them
thanks man!
Posted by matt on 9th of May 2022 at 11:08 am
thanks man!