Thanks for all your work on the weekend newsletter, Matt. Always
helpful to review other bear markets and agree with your
assessment. Too bad each one is different. (But the same?)
there are also commonalities - they all retraced at minimum 38%
of previous bull markets - just a 38% retrace of the move off the
2009 lows is 3200, and all are some sort of ABC wave structure.
Some deep bear markets retrace 5 - 12 years of index gains. The
shallow ones retrace at least 2 - 3 years of gains - putting that
into context comment sense, the SPX has only retraced back 1 year
of gains - so is that anywhere close, nope
Morgan Stanley TA analyst has had a target of 3700 - but if you
just use some comment sense -3700 is late 2020 prices - is that
really enough to wash out all this crap? I think before all is said
and done we'll see a complete retrace of the Mar 2020 low maybe
even to the lower 2000's for SPX - again that's over maybe a couple
year period
Posted by kevindeng0727 on 9th of May 2022 at 11:04 am
though during the 2008 time period I don't think we had any of
those trigger in that way, simply because the market didn't have
rallies that lasted long enough for them to do so - most of those
occurred early stages of new bull markets, or after washout
conditions in bull markets
anyway - should one of those ever trigger - they only do so
after a momentum condition is triggered and after the initial trade
is nicely profitable - and stops are employed so there's really no
risk to them
Thanks for all your work
Posted by brophy on 9th of May 2022 at 10:14 am
Thanks for all your work on the weekend newsletter, Matt. Always helpful to review other bear markets and agree with your assessment. Too bad each one is different. (But the same?)
there are also commonalities -
Posted by matt on 9th of May 2022 at 10:18 am
there are also commonalities - they all retraced at minimum 38% of previous bull markets - just a 38% retrace of the move off the 2009 lows is 3200, and all are some sort of ABC wave structure. Some deep bear markets retrace 5 - 12 years of index gains. The shallow ones retrace at least 2 - 3 years of gains - putting that into context comment sense, the SPX has only retraced back 1 year of gains - so is that anywhere close, nope
Morgan Stanley TA analyst has had a target of 3700 - but if you just use some comment sense -3700 is late 2020 prices - is that really enough to wash out all this crap? I think before all is said and done we'll see a complete retrace of the Mar 2020 low maybe even to the lower 2000's for SPX - again that's over maybe a couple year period
Posted by kevindeng0727 on 9th of May 2022 at 11:04 am
I second that! Great data,
Posted by tradeit007 on 9th of May 2022 at 11:45 am
I second that! Great data, Matt, but your verbals are my keys.
though during the 2008 time
Posted by matt on 9th of May 2022 at 11:47 am
though during the 2008 time period I don't think we had any of those trigger in that way, simply because the market didn't have rallies that lasted long enough for them to do so - most of those occurred early stages of new bull markets, or after washout conditions in bull markets
anyway - should one of those ever trigger - they only do so after a momentum condition is triggered and after the initial trade is nicely profitable - and stops are employed so there's really no risk to them
thanks man!
Posted by matt on 9th of May 2022 at 11:08 am
thanks man!