just from pure statistics: the last two weeks we've had
something
like seven 100 point closing moves in day for the SPX both up
and down- so having another 100 point plus move today does that
really seem out of norm (million to 1) for the current environment
over the last 2 weeks - heck no
let's move on - all that stuff is emotional worried about
what others say or don't say or whatever- let's focus on the
market at this MOMENT - worrying about all that puts one in an
emotional state and that's opposite of what you want to make
good objective decisions
I'm fine emotionally. And no problem with the disagreement. I'm
here to hear opinions other than my own, that is what a board is
for. None of what I posted has changed my strategy at
all.
again another problem with the market is the lack of liquidity -
these huge moves are a direct result of the illiquid markets now -
you get giant swings in the market - not like in the past when the
Fed provided all that money printing that flowed into it all
Yep, and it's been happening for a while, those swings. A few
months ago, my barber asked me (which tells you something right
there) at what level would I get back in. I said it wasn't about
levels, these swings don't happen in a healthy bull market.
Posted by kevindeng0727 on 5th of May 2022 at 11:45 am
Just think about this: Mark Minervini's win rate for trading is
40ish%, he won the US investing champion twice and I don't think
anybody in our community does as well as him lol. Same for other
USIC top performers - lots of dudes have 60-70% trades ended up
with losses, the key is win big and lose small. I would love to
hear Matt and Steve boldly making their calls, even with wrong ones
from time to time. There are so many people trying to be ambivalent
and thus will never be wrong (but then why I pay the monthly
subscription).
well...one has to remember that those investing championships
are not indicative how a professional trader would trade - in order
to win those you have to be super aggressive make big bets on
things to make big wins in order to stand out- like lose 10 bets
and win big on one huge bet - that puts betting style skews your
stats in the win/loss deparment - you would not be betting that
aggressively in real life trading where you are doing it for a
living
I think 60% win rate is normal for pro traders I know
Obviously the 9-8:1 win/loss rate 90% - 80% on the SPY and ES
systems is pretty kick ass. Reversion to mean can be like that.
KISS Trend probably more like 60% but the big trend moves make up
for the whips
just from pure statistics: the
Nobody knew this was coming today. This is the equivalent ...
Posted by matt on 5th of May 2022 at 11:31 am
just from pure statistics: the last two weeks we've had something like seven 100 point closing moves in day for the SPX both up and down- so having another 100 point plus move today does that really seem out of norm (million to 1) for the current environment over the last 2 weeks - heck no
let's move on - all
Posted by matt on 5th of May 2022 at 11:33 am
let's move on - all that stuff is emotional worried about what others say or don't say or whatever- let's focus on the market at this MOMENT - worrying about all that puts one in an emotional state and that's opposite of what you want to make good objective decisions
I'm fine emotionally. And no
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 5th of May 2022 at 11:35 am
I'm fine emotionally. And no problem with the disagreement. I'm here to hear opinions other than my own, that is what a board is for. None of what I posted has changed my strategy at all.
again another problem with the
Posted by matt on 5th of May 2022 at 11:39 am
again another problem with the market is the lack of liquidity - these huge moves are a direct result of the illiquid markets now - you get giant swings in the market - not like in the past when the Fed provided all that money printing that flowed into it all
Yep, and it's been happening
Posted by brophy on 5th of May 2022 at 11:46 am
Yep, and it's been happening for a while, those swings. A few months ago, my barber asked me (which tells you something right there) at what level would I get back in. I said it wasn't about levels, these swings don't happen in a healthy bull market.
Just think about this: Mark
Posted by kevindeng0727 on 5th of May 2022 at 11:45 am
Just think about this: Mark Minervini's win rate for trading is 40ish%, he won the US investing champion twice and I don't think anybody in our community does as well as him lol. Same for other USIC top performers - lots of dudes have 60-70% trades ended up with losses, the key is win big and lose small. I would love to hear Matt and Steve boldly making their calls, even with wrong ones from time to time. There are so many people trying to be ambivalent and thus will never be wrong (but then why I pay the monthly subscription).
well...one has to remember that
Posted by matt on 5th of May 2022 at 11:47 am
well...one has to remember that those investing championships are not indicative how a professional trader would trade - in order to win those you have to be super aggressive make big bets on things to make big wins in order to stand out- like lose 10 bets and win big on one huge bet - that puts betting style skews your stats in the win/loss deparment - you would not be betting that aggressively in real life trading where you are doing it for a living
I think 60% win rate is normal for pro traders I know
Obviously the 9-8:1 win/loss rate
Posted by matt on 5th of May 2022 at 11:52 am
Obviously the 9-8:1 win/loss rate 90% - 80% on the SPY and ES systems is pretty kick ass. Reversion to mean can be like that. KISS Trend probably more like 60% but the big trend moves make up for the whips
SPX bounced off that 4150
Posted by matt on 5th of May 2022 at 11:42 am
SPX bounced off that 4150 area I commented on below
here's my TICK pivots chart - this morning once we lost those tick pivots zone support at 4225 - that opened up an airpocket
price bounced off 4150 support for now, also had an end of bear cycle there
I agree and had that
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 5th of May 2022 at 11:41 am
I agree and had that in my one post about liquidity. Very important point for navigating