Nobody knew this was coming today. This is the equivalent of a
bad beat in cards. I just sold my hedges into the lows 4,170 area.
I honestly didn't think I would get the chance to do so. Nothing
new here. Same ol news, same ol same ol. Low liquidity, slimy, trap
market. I wonder what psychology programs are being used with these
moves.
yeah I mean did I expect a quick 130 points in 1.5 hrs -
probably not - but I expected a pullback I was not 'bulled up'
yesterday - we rallied to resistance, Yesterday's close was the
place to put hedges or shorts back on - resistance, and we
completed an abc - so we expected a pullback - and you also know
our overall stance on the market - rip your face off rallied like
yesterday are typical in bear markets
my biggest concern yesterday was that we completed an abc and
that was it and get a complete unwind. that's all that is
required.
my hope is that it was an abc of A and that a higher low wave B
tries to establish itself in this area - 4150 needs to hold
on the cash
Good to see someone concede that they didn't expect this kind of
move. I'm seeing "weatherman" posts on boards and sites around
markets that this was expected. Just goes against all logical
technical analysis and markets period.
Then if the market rallies, you'll see someone pull out their
other side of the argument post giving the bullish side. All I'm
saying is, you can't have it both ways when you are investing or
trading. Account balances don't work that way. The weatherman can
be in business whether it rains or shines, but investors have to
choose one during risk/reward points and make decisions and stick
to a plan.
It is always easy to show after the fact what happened and that
there was a possibility of it. Bottom line is, what happened today
was a 1 in a million chance. Just like yesterday was wild as well
on the upside and biggest move since 1979 after a Fed meeting. Turn
on ESPN and they will tell you the guy shouldn't have struck out or
what someone should have done. Issue is, they aren't playing in a
real game.
I appreciate all the work you do in providing information here.
I take responsibility for all my own decisions. I always have a
plan. You guys preach here often about having a personal plan and
executing accordingly. I think most here have a plan and it is a
great group of traders and investors. I prefer being here much more
than general sites like Twitter or others.
sorry to disagree your comment about "Bottom line is, what
happened today was a 1 in a million chance"
we are in a bear market, a strong downtrend, we had an abc rally
yesterday into resistance that was posted ahead of time, it was a
FED day and many times you get opposite reactions following a FED
day.
a million to one? odds favored a sell off at least 38% - 50%
retracements are typical of wave B's - given the backdrop of a bear
market, a bear market rally on a fed day and into resistance
-pulling back the next day even very strongly is not some million
to 1 odds - 2:1, 3:1, it was high odds -
Also just from the current stats: the last two weeks we've had
something like seven 100 point closing moves in day for the SPX
both up and down - so odds are in high favor of another 100 point
plus move
just from pure statistics: the last two weeks we've had
something
like seven 100 point closing moves in day for the SPX both up
and down- so having another 100 point plus move today does that
really seem out of norm (million to 1) for the current environment
over the last 2 weeks - heck no
let's move on - all that stuff is emotional worried about
what others say or don't say or whatever- let's focus on the
market at this MOMENT - worrying about all that puts one in an
emotional state and that's opposite of what you want to make
good objective decisions
I'm fine emotionally. And no problem with the disagreement. I'm
here to hear opinions other than my own, that is what a board is
for. None of what I posted has changed my strategy at
all.
again another problem with the market is the lack of liquidity -
these huge moves are a direct result of the illiquid markets now -
you get giant swings in the market - not like in the past when the
Fed provided all that money printing that flowed into it all
Yep, and it's been happening for a while, those swings. A few
months ago, my barber asked me (which tells you something right
there) at what level would I get back in. I said it wasn't about
levels, these swings don't happen in a healthy bull market.
Posted by kevindeng0727 on 5th of May 2022 at 11:45 am
Just think about this: Mark Minervini's win rate for trading is
40ish%, he won the US investing champion twice and I don't think
anybody in our community does as well as him lol. Same for other
USIC top performers - lots of dudes have 60-70% trades ended up
with losses, the key is win big and lose small. I would love to
hear Matt and Steve boldly making their calls, even with wrong ones
from time to time. There are so many people trying to be ambivalent
and thus will never be wrong (but then why I pay the monthly
subscription).
well...one has to remember that those investing championships
are not indicative how a professional trader would trade - in order
to win those you have to be super aggressive make big bets on
things to make big wins in order to stand out- like lose 10 bets
and win big on one huge bet - that puts betting style skews your
stats in the win/loss deparment - you would not be betting that
aggressively in real life trading where you are doing it for a
living
I think 60% win rate is normal for pro traders I know
Obviously the 9-8:1 win/loss rate 90% - 80% on the SPY and ES
systems is pretty kick ass. Reversion to mean can be like that.
KISS Trend probably more like 60% but the big trend moves make up
for the whips
Nobody knew this was coming
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 5th of May 2022 at 10:54 am
Nobody knew this was coming today. This is the equivalent of a bad beat in cards. I just sold my hedges into the lows 4,170 area. I honestly didn't think I would get the chance to do so. Nothing new here. Same ol news, same ol same ol. Low liquidity, slimy, trap market. I wonder what psychology programs are being used with these moves.
yeah I mean did I
Posted by matt on 5th of May 2022 at 11:01 am
yeah I mean did I expect a quick 130 points in 1.5 hrs - probably not - but I expected a pullback I was not 'bulled up' yesterday - we rallied to resistance, Yesterday's close was the place to put hedges or shorts back on - resistance, and we completed an abc - so we expected a pullback - and you also know our overall stance on the market - rip your face off rallied like yesterday are typical in bear markets
my biggest concern yesterday was that we completed an abc and that was it and get a complete unwind. that's all that is required.
my hope is that it was an abc of A and that a higher low wave B tries to establish itself in this area - 4150 needs to hold on the cash
Good to see someone concede
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 5th of May 2022 at 11:24 am
Good to see someone concede that they didn't expect this kind of move. I'm seeing "weatherman" posts on boards and sites around markets that this was expected. Just goes against all logical technical analysis and markets period.
Then if the market rallies, you'll see someone pull out their other side of the argument post giving the bullish side. All I'm saying is, you can't have it both ways when you are investing or trading. Account balances don't work that way. The weatherman can be in business whether it rains or shines, but investors have to choose one during risk/reward points and make decisions and stick to a plan.
It is always easy to show after the fact what happened and that there was a possibility of it. Bottom line is, what happened today was a 1 in a million chance. Just like yesterday was wild as well on the upside and biggest move since 1979 after a Fed meeting. Turn on ESPN and they will tell you the guy shouldn't have struck out or what someone should have done. Issue is, they aren't playing in a real game.
I appreciate all the work you do in providing information here. I take responsibility for all my own decisions. I always have a plan. You guys preach here often about having a personal plan and executing accordingly. I think most here have a plan and it is a great group of traders and investors. I prefer being here much more than general sites like Twitter or others.
sorry to disagree your comment
Posted by matt on 5th of May 2022 at 11:30 am
sorry to disagree your comment about "Bottom line is, what happened today was a 1 in a million chance"
we are in a bear market, a strong downtrend, we had an abc rally yesterday into resistance that was posted ahead of time, it was a FED day and many times you get opposite reactions following a FED day.
a million to one? odds favored a sell off at least 38% - 50% retracements are typical of wave B's - given the backdrop of a bear market, a bear market rally on a fed day and into resistance -pulling back the next day even very strongly is not some million to 1 odds - 2:1, 3:1, it was high odds -
Also just from the current stats: the last two weeks we've had something like seven 100 point closing moves in day for the SPX both up and down - so odds are in high favor of another 100 point plus move
just from pure statistics: the
Posted by matt on 5th of May 2022 at 11:31 am
just from pure statistics: the last two weeks we've had something like seven 100 point closing moves in day for the SPX both up and down- so having another 100 point plus move today does that really seem out of norm (million to 1) for the current environment over the last 2 weeks - heck no
let's move on - all
Posted by matt on 5th of May 2022 at 11:33 am
let's move on - all that stuff is emotional worried about what others say or don't say or whatever- let's focus on the market at this MOMENT - worrying about all that puts one in an emotional state and that's opposite of what you want to make good objective decisions
I'm fine emotionally. And no
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 5th of May 2022 at 11:35 am
I'm fine emotionally. And no problem with the disagreement. I'm here to hear opinions other than my own, that is what a board is for. None of what I posted has changed my strategy at all.
again another problem with the
Posted by matt on 5th of May 2022 at 11:39 am
again another problem with the market is the lack of liquidity - these huge moves are a direct result of the illiquid markets now - you get giant swings in the market - not like in the past when the Fed provided all that money printing that flowed into it all
Yep, and it's been happening
Posted by brophy on 5th of May 2022 at 11:46 am
Yep, and it's been happening for a while, those swings. A few months ago, my barber asked me (which tells you something right there) at what level would I get back in. I said it wasn't about levels, these swings don't happen in a healthy bull market.
Just think about this: Mark
Posted by kevindeng0727 on 5th of May 2022 at 11:45 am
Just think about this: Mark Minervini's win rate for trading is 40ish%, he won the US investing champion twice and I don't think anybody in our community does as well as him lol. Same for other USIC top performers - lots of dudes have 60-70% trades ended up with losses, the key is win big and lose small. I would love to hear Matt and Steve boldly making their calls, even with wrong ones from time to time. There are so many people trying to be ambivalent and thus will never be wrong (but then why I pay the monthly subscription).
well...one has to remember that
Posted by matt on 5th of May 2022 at 11:47 am
well...one has to remember that those investing championships are not indicative how a professional trader would trade - in order to win those you have to be super aggressive make big bets on things to make big wins in order to stand out- like lose 10 bets and win big on one huge bet - that puts betting style skews your stats in the win/loss deparment - you would not be betting that aggressively in real life trading where you are doing it for a living
I think 60% win rate is normal for pro traders I know
Obviously the 9-8:1 win/loss rate
Posted by matt on 5th of May 2022 at 11:52 am
Obviously the 9-8:1 win/loss rate 90% - 80% on the SPY and ES systems is pretty kick ass. Reversion to mean can be like that. KISS Trend probably more like 60% but the big trend moves make up for the whips
SPX bounced off that 4150
Posted by matt on 5th of May 2022 at 11:42 am
SPX bounced off that 4150 area I commented on below
here's my TICK pivots chart - this morning once we lost those tick pivots zone support at 4225 - that opened up an airpocket
price bounced off 4150 support for now, also had an end of bear cycle there
I agree and had that
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 5th of May 2022 at 11:41 am
I agree and had that in my one post about liquidity. Very important point for navigating
Yea man, if every move
Posted by kevindeng0727 on 5th of May 2022 at 11:15 am
Yea man, if every move is timed perfectly one must be a trillionaire lol. Please keep your great work Matt.