Posted by mstaples37 on 9th of Mar 2022 at 03:16 pm
Matt, for DBC or other commodity funds, what would you look for
as an entry point for new longs (in terms of time, price, etc.)?
Trying to get entry points in uptrending instruments, and
distinguishing between good opps to get in versus letting something
that was getting overdone unwind, is always tough for me.
remember I discussed that as well in the newsletter. Once these
commodities put in a high (maybe they have already) they may need
time to consolidate - especially if the general market puts in a
decent trade low over the next several days or next week. I think
folks will need to be patient and realize that a consolidation may
take a couple a months (if the general market were to put in a low
and rally up for a couple months into that May time frame). One may
need to be careful about jumping back into commodities too soon is
what I'm saying (except for trades). After blow off moves
everyone wants to get back into them so badly and many times does
so too soon on a minor consolidation that needs more time to work
off. timing and patience is the hard part, but I think the
commodities will need time, not just a few days of consolidation -
that is once the general market is ready to work higher for a
longer period of time we'll likely see some rotation back out of
them.
otherwise on uptrends your first support is the 9 EMA, then the
20 if that 9 is broken on a closing basis, generally you'll get at
least a reaction bounce off the 20, then over time if the 20 is
broken the 50 day is likely to be tested. Today DBC is breaking the
9 EMA, one could probably place a buy limit each day near the 20
SMA and get a bounce trade out of it there
Posted by mstaples37 on 9th of Mar 2022 at 04:27 pm
Thanks, appreciate all of that a great deal. I'll keep
looking to you and Steve to highlight these as relevant in markets
you track--you do a great job, and that commentary in last night's
newsletter was very clear on all of this, including the point about
a couple months (which, amazingly, I missed)--but another aspect of
the question is identifying when something is a likely blow-off
move, as opposed to just a breather in a continuing trend. We
know them when we see them, usually, but anything you have on this
(timeframes you usually look at, RSI, etc.) would help. E.g.,
DBC already had that sort of mini-blow off type of move on the
daily at the end of February. Just curious whether it's a
feel thing, like when you see ribbons really stretched, or whether
there are, e.g., particular RSIs or anything you look at.
Posted by jtsurfah on 12th of Mar 2022 at 11:42 am
PDBC vs PDCB. I couldn't find the one you suggested at first but
figured it out. Great suggestion - I just got K-1's this
week...very annoying.. I love the 10% yield, but bummed it's only
payed out once per year!
I updated the tables - should be clearer now, I also added a
description title text.
also note the -7% I show for the KISS this year is deceiving
because of the way I have to do the year end close out stats. The
KISS entry was in early Dec and I close it out on Dec 31st to close
out the year end stats. Then for the new year I have to show the
entry as of Jan 1st, which is higher price than where it entered in
early Dec and so that make the loss look larger that it would be in
reality, was more like -4% if using the actual entry. The reversion
to mean systems have done well this year obviously. Hopefully
we see new long entries this week if we get that washout sell
off
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DBC big reversal today off the parabolic move doji candle yesterday
Posted by matt on 9th of Mar 2022 at 02:56 pm
DBC - Chart Link-
Matt, for DBC or other
Posted by mstaples37 on 9th of Mar 2022 at 03:16 pm
Matt, for DBC or other commodity funds, what would you look for as an entry point for new longs (in terms of time, price, etc.)? Trying to get entry points in uptrending instruments, and distinguishing between good opps to get in versus letting something that was getting overdone unwind, is always tough for me.
remember I discussed that as
Posted by matt on 9th of Mar 2022 at 03:24 pm
remember I discussed that as well in the newsletter. Once these commodities put in a high (maybe they have already) they may need time to consolidate - especially if the general market puts in a decent trade low over the next several days or next week. I think folks will need to be patient and realize that a consolidation may take a couple a months (if the general market were to put in a low and rally up for a couple months into that May time frame). One may need to be careful about jumping back into commodities too soon is what I'm saying (except for trades). After blow off moves everyone wants to get back into them so badly and many times does so too soon on a minor consolidation that needs more time to work off. timing and patience is the hard part, but I think the commodities will need time, not just a few days of consolidation - that is once the general market is ready to work higher for a longer period of time we'll likely see some rotation back out of them.
otherwise on uptrends your first support is the 9 EMA, then the 20 if that 9 is broken on a closing basis, generally you'll get at least a reaction bounce off the 20, then over time if the 20 is broken the 50 day is likely to be tested. Today DBC is breaking the 9 EMA, one could probably place a buy limit each day near the 20 SMA and get a bounce trade out of it there
Thanks, appreciate all of that
Posted by mstaples37 on 9th of Mar 2022 at 04:27 pm
Thanks, appreciate all of that a great deal. I'll keep looking to you and Steve to highlight these as relevant in markets you track--you do a great job, and that commentary in last night's newsletter was very clear on all of this, including the point about a couple months (which, amazingly, I missed)--but another aspect of the question is identifying when something is a likely blow-off move, as opposed to just a breather in a continuing trend. We know them when we see them, usually, but anything you have on this (timeframes you usually look at, RSI, etc.) would help. E.g., DBC already had that sort of mini-blow off type of move on the daily at the end of February. Just curious whether it's a feel thing, like when you see ribbons really stretched, or whether there are, e.g., particular RSIs or anything you look at.
guys never buy DBC, buy
Posted by matt on 9th of Mar 2022 at 06:22 pm
guys never buy DBC, buy PDCB instead. DBC you get those annoying K1's 1099's sent to you every time you buy and sell, you don't get that with PDCB
PDBC vs PDCB. I couldn't
Posted by jtsurfah on 12th of Mar 2022 at 11:42 am
PDBC vs PDCB. I couldn't find the one you suggested at first but figured it out. Great suggestion - I just got K-1's this week...very annoying.. I love the 10% yield, but bummed it's only payed out once per year!
PDBC vs DBC - don't
Posted by matt on 12th of Mar 2022 at 11:58 am
PDBC vs DBC - don't buy DBC, buy PDBC instead to avoid the K1s
I updated the tables -
Posted by matt on 12th of Mar 2022 at 11:55 am
I updated the tables - should be clearer now, I also added a description title text.
also note the -7% I show for the KISS this year is deceiving because of the way I have to do the year end close out stats. The KISS entry was in early Dec and I close it out on Dec 31st to close out the year end stats. Then for the new year I have to show the entry as of Jan 1st, which is higher price than where it entered in early Dec and so that make the loss look larger that it would be in reality, was more like -4% if using the actual entry. The reversion to mean systems have done well this year obviously. Hopefully we see new long entries this week if we get that washout sell off