yep nice charts. I like how you use my charts on your side,
that's the reason we share for the collective good for
everyone!
that said one thing Steve and I discussed last night was that
there are some differences to consider - the Nasdaq wasn't the same
back then, but especially to 2008. There's a lot of turn over in
stocks, a lot more spacs things like that, therefore when I see the
number of new 52 week lows in the Nasdaq is close to levels seen in
the fall 2008, it's not really comparable. That said, don't get me
wrong, I'm not discounting the sheer amount of damage that has been
done, and not just recently, we've had a bear market under the
surface of the Nasdaq for many months now.
When we looked at the charts this weekend, things are very
stretched, and support a reaction bounce soon. NYMO below lower BB
for 3 days. However I've seen cases where that has had a 4 and the
max historical was 5. The CPC is at 1.26 but could go higher.
The VIX may still need a much larger spike.
What we don't want to see is like a Black Monday type of a
event. Odds are low but it's always something I worry
about
I also have some concerns that they haven't yet shot AAPL and
MSFT, they are wounded but not shot. I think irregardless this year
those 2 stocks get taken out and shot, too many people think they
are safe in them and need to be taught a lesson. My hope short term
is that it would not be now but later.
again going to be interesting and important week this week.
Currently short term we have 3 waves down, with this being a wave 3
of either C or 5. Short term we could still need a wave 4 bounce
then a final 5
Posted by timebandit on 22nd of Jan 2022 at 03:28 pm
Yeah, when I look at the Covid plunge, it kind of looks we would
actually be a little earlier into it than the March 11 time frame.
For example, NAMO was below the Bollinger Bands for 3 days in late
February. It came back within the lower band on Feb 28th, which
actually had a pretty deep low but closed above the low of Feb 27th
to make a green candle. After another couple days or so of rally,
the decline resumed.
I'm actually thinking Monday could be more like Feb 28th 2020.
Gap down but catch a bid and take off to end up green. But what do
I know? Nada, zip, zilch. The market will reveal itself.
And none of this is to say we will duplicate what happened in
2020. What I'm trying to keep in my mind is that all bets are off
in this environment. Pretty much anything could happen. I don't
want to lock myself into any expectations. I just want to be able
to react to what is according to a plan.
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yep nice charts. I like
There are a couple of uncanny similarities between where the ...
Posted by matt on 22nd of Jan 2022 at 02:28 pm
yep nice charts. I like how you use my charts on your side, that's the reason we share for the collective good for everyone!
that said one thing Steve and I discussed last night was that there are some differences to consider - the Nasdaq wasn't the same back then, but especially to 2008. There's a lot of turn over in stocks, a lot more spacs things like that, therefore when I see the number of new 52 week lows in the Nasdaq is close to levels seen in the fall 2008, it's not really comparable. That said, don't get me wrong, I'm not discounting the sheer amount of damage that has been done, and not just recently, we've had a bear market under the surface of the Nasdaq for many months now.
When we looked at the charts this weekend, things are very stretched, and support a reaction bounce soon. NYMO below lower BB for 3 days. However I've seen cases where that has had a 4 and the max historical was 5. The CPC is at 1.26 but could go higher. The VIX may still need a much larger spike.
What we don't want to see is like a Black Monday type of a event. Odds are low but it's always something I worry about
I also have some concerns that they haven't yet shot AAPL and MSFT, they are wounded but not shot. I think irregardless this year those 2 stocks get taken out and shot, too many people think they are safe in them and need to be taught a lesson. My hope short term is that it would not be now but later.
again going to be interesting and important week this week. Currently short term we have 3 waves down, with this being a wave 3 of either C or 5. Short term we could still need a wave 4 bounce then a final 5
Yeah, when I look at
Posted by timebandit on 22nd of Jan 2022 at 03:28 pm
Yeah, when I look at the Covid plunge, it kind of looks we would actually be a little earlier into it than the March 11 time frame. For example, NAMO was below the Bollinger Bands for 3 days in late February. It came back within the lower band on Feb 28th, which actually had a pretty deep low but closed above the low of Feb 27th to make a green candle. After another couple days or so of rally, the decline resumed.
I'm actually thinking Monday could be more like Feb 28th 2020. Gap down but catch a bid and take off to end up green. But what do I know? Nada, zip, zilch. The market will reveal itself.
And none of this is to say we will duplicate what happened in 2020. What I'm trying to keep in my mind is that all bets are off in this environment. Pretty much anything could happen. I don't want to lock myself into any expectations. I just want to be able to react to what is according to a plan.