Posted by timebandit on 22nd of Jan 2022 at 02:16 pm
There are a couple of uncanny similarities between where the
Nasdaq is today and where it was on March 11, 2020. The first
snapshot below illustrates them, and the second snapshot is a
closeup of 2020 so you can see the vertical red line a little
better.
Yesterday, the Percent of Nasdaq Stocks Above the 200 Day Moving
Average closed at 16.84 and the 10 dma of NAHL closed at -541.20.
On March 11, 2020, these two measures closed at 16.31 and -538.90.
Not identical but pretty close. Now, this could just be a funny
coincidence. But it did call my attention to March 11, 2020.
On March 11, 2020, NASI was at -801 (it's -860 now), NAMO was at
-97 (it's -80 now), VXN was at 50 (it's 34 now), and CPCE was at
1.02 (it's 0.82 now). Those numbers were (and are) pretty extreme .
You would think it was (and is) time for a bounce.
Here's what happened on March 12th: big gap down. COMPQ closed
750 points lower. That doesn't mean it will happen again, but it
COULD. I think it does mean Monday and the coming week will be
very.................interesting is an understatement.
If as Steve says, this may be a wave iii, or (3), or three or
whatever down, then all bets are off. Wave threes are illogical. I
try not to get in their way.
I'm positioned short because the market wants to go down. Last
year, we had a lot of Monday morning margin calls after bloody opex
weeks. Maybe it happens again, maybe it doesn't. If the market gaps
down, I will take some off the table. If it gaps up, I will have a
decision to make. Bear rallies can be motherfletchers
yeah a big down was my worry when I took a small upro and 2 spy
reversion mean options, but I was thinking that my upro was small
enough, I was not sure how my options will respond, but I was
thinking they are March DTE or may be it would not be that bad,
that was why I took the trades. My plan was if the spy goes up, I
will take them off fairly quickly, if spy goes down, my upro will
be stopped out, and I will see how much damage are the options.
I'll be doing a video on the weekend specifically on those
systems, everyone needs to watch, especially new guys like Sydney
who doesn't understand them. They need to be treated like a
statistical odds bet with a plan. They are designed to account for
this type of thing if you treat them with a specific betting
strategy system and money management Again I'll discuss in the
video
yep nice charts. I like how you use my charts on your side,
that's the reason we share for the collective good for
everyone!
that said one thing Steve and I discussed last night was that
there are some differences to consider - the Nasdaq wasn't the same
back then, but especially to 2008. There's a lot of turn over in
stocks, a lot more spacs things like that, therefore when I see the
number of new 52 week lows in the Nasdaq is close to levels seen in
the fall 2008, it's not really comparable. That said, don't get me
wrong, I'm not discounting the sheer amount of damage that has been
done, and not just recently, we've had a bear market under the
surface of the Nasdaq for many months now.
When we looked at the charts this weekend, things are very
stretched, and support a reaction bounce soon. NYMO below lower BB
for 3 days. However I've seen cases where that has had a 4 and the
max historical was 5. The CPC is at 1.26 but could go higher.
The VIX may still need a much larger spike.
What we don't want to see is like a Black Monday type of a
event. Odds are low but it's always something I worry
about
I also have some concerns that they haven't yet shot AAPL and
MSFT, they are wounded but not shot. I think irregardless this year
those 2 stocks get taken out and shot, too many people think they
are safe in them and need to be taught a lesson. My hope short term
is that it would not be now but later.
again going to be interesting and important week this week.
Currently short term we have 3 waves down, with this being a wave 3
of either C or 5. Short term we could still need a wave 4 bounce
then a final 5
Posted by timebandit on 22nd of Jan 2022 at 03:28 pm
Yeah, when I look at the Covid plunge, it kind of looks we would
actually be a little earlier into it than the March 11 time frame.
For example, NAMO was below the Bollinger Bands for 3 days in late
February. It came back within the lower band on Feb 28th, which
actually had a pretty deep low but closed above the low of Feb 27th
to make a green candle. After another couple days or so of rally,
the decline resumed.
I'm actually thinking Monday could be more like Feb 28th 2020.
Gap down but catch a bid and take off to end up green. But what do
I know? Nada, zip, zilch. The market will reveal itself.
And none of this is to say we will duplicate what happened in
2020. What I'm trying to keep in my mind is that all bets are off
in this environment. Pretty much anything could happen. I don't
want to lock myself into any expectations. I just want to be able
to react to what is according to a plan.
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There are a couple of
Posted by timebandit on 22nd of Jan 2022 at 02:16 pm
There are a couple of uncanny similarities between where the Nasdaq is today and where it was on March 11, 2020. The first snapshot below illustrates them, and the second snapshot is a closeup of 2020 so you can see the vertical red line a little better.
Yesterday, the Percent of Nasdaq Stocks Above the 200 Day Moving Average closed at 16.84 and the 10 dma of NAHL closed at -541.20. On March 11, 2020, these two measures closed at 16.31 and -538.90. Not identical but pretty close. Now, this could just be a funny coincidence. But it did call my attention to March 11, 2020.
On March 11, 2020, NASI was at -801 (it's -860 now), NAMO was at -97 (it's -80 now), VXN was at 50 (it's 34 now), and CPCE was at 1.02 (it's 0.82 now). Those numbers were (and are) pretty extreme . You would think it was (and is) time for a bounce.
Here's what happened on March 12th: big gap down. COMPQ closed 750 points lower. That doesn't mean it will happen again, but it COULD. I think it does mean Monday and the coming week will be very.................interesting is an understatement.
If as Steve says, this may be a wave iii, or (3), or three or whatever down, then all bets are off. Wave threes are illogical. I try not to get in their way.
I'm positioned short because the market wants to go down. Last year, we had a lot of Monday morning margin calls after bloody opex weeks. Maybe it happens again, maybe it doesn't. If the market gaps down, I will take some off the table. If it gaps up, I will have a decision to make. Bear rallies can be motherfletchers
yeah a big down was
Posted by sydney on 22nd of Jan 2022 at 02:45 pm
yeah a big down was my worry when I took a small upro and 2 spy reversion mean options, but I was thinking that my upro was small enough, I was not sure how my options will respond, but I was thinking they are March DTE or may be it would not be that bad, that was why I took the trades. My plan was if the spy goes up, I will take them off fairly quickly, if spy goes down, my upro will be stopped out, and I will see how much damage are the options.
I'll be doing a video
Posted by matt on 22nd of Jan 2022 at 02:47 pm
I'll be doing a video on the weekend specifically on those systems, everyone needs to watch, especially new guys like Sydney who doesn't understand them. They need to be treated like a statistical odds bet with a plan. They are designed to account for this type of thing if you treat them with a specific betting strategy system and money management Again I'll discuss in the video
Thanks, I appreciate it. I
Posted by sydney on 22nd of Jan 2022 at 02:50 pm
Thanks, I appreciate it. I am weak on E waves and your system.
yep nice charts. I like
Posted by matt on 22nd of Jan 2022 at 02:28 pm
yep nice charts. I like how you use my charts on your side, that's the reason we share for the collective good for everyone!
that said one thing Steve and I discussed last night was that there are some differences to consider - the Nasdaq wasn't the same back then, but especially to 2008. There's a lot of turn over in stocks, a lot more spacs things like that, therefore when I see the number of new 52 week lows in the Nasdaq is close to levels seen in the fall 2008, it's not really comparable. That said, don't get me wrong, I'm not discounting the sheer amount of damage that has been done, and not just recently, we've had a bear market under the surface of the Nasdaq for many months now.
When we looked at the charts this weekend, things are very stretched, and support a reaction bounce soon. NYMO below lower BB for 3 days. However I've seen cases where that has had a 4 and the max historical was 5. The CPC is at 1.26 but could go higher. The VIX may still need a much larger spike.
What we don't want to see is like a Black Monday type of a event. Odds are low but it's always something I worry about
I also have some concerns that they haven't yet shot AAPL and MSFT, they are wounded but not shot. I think irregardless this year those 2 stocks get taken out and shot, too many people think they are safe in them and need to be taught a lesson. My hope short term is that it would not be now but later.
again going to be interesting and important week this week. Currently short term we have 3 waves down, with this being a wave 3 of either C or 5. Short term we could still need a wave 4 bounce then a final 5
Yeah, when I look at
Posted by timebandit on 22nd of Jan 2022 at 03:28 pm
Yeah, when I look at the Covid plunge, it kind of looks we would actually be a little earlier into it than the March 11 time frame. For example, NAMO was below the Bollinger Bands for 3 days in late February. It came back within the lower band on Feb 28th, which actually had a pretty deep low but closed above the low of Feb 27th to make a green candle. After another couple days or so of rally, the decline resumed.
I'm actually thinking Monday could be more like Feb 28th 2020. Gap down but catch a bid and take off to end up green. But what do I know? Nada, zip, zilch. The market will reveal itself.
And none of this is to say we will duplicate what happened in 2020. What I'm trying to keep in my mind is that all bets are off in this environment. Pretty much anything could happen. I don't want to lock myself into any expectations. I just want to be able to react to what is according to a plan.