someone wrote in with some confusion regarding the SPY reversion
to mean systems and SPX 401K KISS stuff. He also had some comments
about not being able to see the charts clearly or not as clean as
he'd like. Here's my response in case anyone else has some
questions:
-----
there should not be any confusion between the SPY systems and
KISS 401K stuff.
think of the SPY systems as reversion to mean systems as being
most of the time in cash like a tiger waiting to pounce, they look
for high statistical probabilities whenever the market gets too
stretched to the downside or the upside. Price has sold off too
much and it's too far below the 9 day EMA for example, one of the
SPY systems may take a long trade and then look to close out after
you get that mean reversion i.e. price back over the 9 EMA. That's
all they are man. They are not trying to catch the trend and in
fact when a lot of the long reversion to mean trades trigger the
KISS 401K will be out because the DVT would have been hit on the
pullback. Think of the SPY systems as short term - they are mostly
in cash, they look to get in and get out, it's not complicated.
KISS 401K should be clear what it tries to do, stay in uptrends
as long as possible with tight ratcheted stops. Unlike the SPY
reversion to mean systems, which are mostly in cash, the KISS stuff
tries to stay invested as long as possible but with tight DVT
stops.
I think the charts are pretty clear - obviously if you had them
on your computer you would probably be just find with their look,
we will be offering that through TS so you have the option to get
them on your computer
Not sure what you mean by the DVT's hard to see them? I
have the prices listed RIGHT ON THE website, so even if you can't
read the chart for some reason you can see the price listed in
written dated text right in that section. Also did you realize the
DVT price is listed in written text at the bottom of each
newsletter email? I think it's covered very well. Most people
care more about the prices which we list vs looking at the
indicators
see attached images, you can see the DVT prices listed at bottom
of each newsletter, in the KISS section, and of course charts there
as well and in each newsletter.
Posted by fredsaid on 30th of Sep 2020 at 11:39 am
Thanks Matt. I stepped into 401 last Thursday and then
jumped in with 2 feet yesterday. I trimmed the SPY options
down to last one just now, is the SPY reversion to mean gonna exit
today ?
thanks, nah the open SPY system will continue to hold for as
long as it's momentum indicator stays positive.
BTW guys I added all the long stats to the SPY section, I will
be adding all the stats for the shorts next. Also this isn't the
final format. Right now when you click System Statistics you see
the stats for each system and have to page down. I'm to add a
summary page with all the stats in a nice clean table. Then I'll
add a tab for Shorts and Longs and have statistic images in those
for better organization.
anyway if you wish to view the stats now for the Long sub
systems, there's 12 of them! you can do so now, click URL
below
Posted by jackbnimble on 30th of Sep 2020 at 03:42 pm
Just a point of clarification clicking directly on the systems
tab brings you to breakpointtrades.com/spy/ which seems to be out
of date as it shows the 9/8/2020 QE BTS as still being long this
should probably be corrected to reduce confusion. Going
Systems>Spy however brings you to the correct and presumably
soon to be replaced breakpointtrades.com/current_spy/
Posted by signal46 on 30th of Sep 2020 at 06:23 pm
I agree with you Jack, I saw the same thing last night, but
today is not going to the old data and goes to the correct numbers.
They must have fixed it. :)
actually I think I know what you guys saw. As you know on
the Systems navi tab there's two drop down tabs SPY and 401K Kiss
system. However if you clicked on the Systems tab itself without
clicking on one of those sub tabs it brought you to an old SPY
page. Anyway we removed that so there should no longer be any
confusion there
I took both QE BTS entries (options), sold 1st the second
trading day but still have the second entry. September has been a
very bad month for me with the market crashed on my portfolio while
I couldn't watch the market, and after that I've been totally out
of sync with the market (buy high sell low...LOL). So I decided to
trade using your system as a rehabilitation tool. so to speak.
Also bought NVDA on the breakout. So far making a baby step
recovery. Thank you for your commentary/analysis and your systems.
Particularly your market commentary.
lapri24 - we warned of a correction following the parabolic move
in late August/early September and suggested raising stops and/or
taking profits. The main thing here is to LEARN and avoid
such hits to your portfolio in the future.
Steve, totally agree. Late Aug/early Sept was unfortunately when
life suddenly happened in a bad way and little time or presence of
mind for the market. I saw the email for exhaustion short trade at
the market top, a week later. I can only laugh and learn at this
point.
Bro - I am with you. The key and most difficult part of
trading is timing (which time horizon are you trading on - short,
swing or long - in fact I think if the boys used these terms more
explicitively it would help vs. "trade on your time horizon" ;
furthermore I think they should be define short=1-2 weeks,
swing=1-2 months, long => 3month...I made that up but would love
for the boys to entertain) and of course greed. When you get
a winner take it - sold my NIO at small $400 profit at 22.20, then
got stopped out on the rest for $130 loss. One of the things
I try not to do is get back in, when the trade is over, it's over,
no 2nd winds (painful lesson)- only exception to this is when there
is a wedge with a back test. As I posted yesterday NVDA was awesome
but I got out at 540 - no 2nd winds ; we could watch for a back
test though. I'm still holding my 2nd entry on the QE BTS
cause Matt said follow the momo (momentum) and actually bought a
little more today (I also hedged it with a daily puts for Friday)-
both are flat on the trade but time will run out on the hedge so
i'll cash it when green if resistance holds no matter what.
Matt and Steve are the best in the business. Period.
They aren't fortune tellers but I kind of am and if September
was bad for you like it was for me well don't fret, I feel a change
coming to your tide ;) and mine lol.
I've now added all the stats tables to the SPY section for long
and shorts. I'm not done as I stated earlier right now all
the stats for the 20 systems are listed on that one page, I'm going
to them broken down to Longs and Shorts add two tabs for those, and
one tab that shows a summary table.
future SPY systems I would like to work on? I'd like to work on
a breakout and a breakout system based on the cycle indicator from
the KISS.
here's a link, you have to click on the system statistics tab,
again it will be better organized later today vs just one long
list, but you can now see all stats for the 20 systems
Clarification on SPY systems vs SPX KISS 401K etc
Posted by matt on 30th of Sep 2020 at 11:27 am
someone wrote in with some confusion regarding the SPY reversion to mean systems and SPX 401K KISS stuff. He also had some comments about not being able to see the charts clearly or not as clean as he'd like. Here's my response in case anyone else has some questions:
-----
there should not be any confusion between the SPY systems and KISS 401K stuff.
think of the SPY systems as reversion to mean systems as being most of the time in cash like a tiger waiting to pounce, they look for high statistical probabilities whenever the market gets too stretched to the downside or the upside. Price has sold off too much and it's too far below the 9 day EMA for example, one of the SPY systems may take a long trade and then look to close out after you get that mean reversion i.e. price back over the 9 EMA. That's all they are man. They are not trying to catch the trend and in fact when a lot of the long reversion to mean trades trigger the KISS 401K will be out because the DVT would have been hit on the pullback. Think of the SPY systems as short term - they are mostly in cash, they look to get in and get out, it's not complicated.
KISS 401K should be clear what it tries to do, stay in uptrends as long as possible with tight ratcheted stops. Unlike the SPY reversion to mean systems, which are mostly in cash, the KISS stuff tries to stay invested as long as possible but with tight DVT stops.
I think the charts are pretty clear - obviously if you had them on your computer you would probably be just find with their look, we will be offering that through TS so you have the option to get them on your computer
Not sure what you mean by the DVT's hard to see them? I have the prices listed RIGHT ON THE website, so even if you can't read the chart for some reason you can see the price listed in written dated text right in that section. Also did you realize the DVT price is listed in written text at the bottom of each newsletter email? I think it's covered very well. Most people care more about the prices which we list vs looking at the indicators
see attached images, you can see the DVT prices listed at bottom of each newsletter, in the KISS section, and of course charts there as well and in each newsletter.
Thanks Matt. I stepped into
Posted by fredsaid on 30th of Sep 2020 at 11:39 am
Thanks Matt. I stepped into 401 last Thursday and then jumped in with 2 feet yesterday. I trimmed the SPY options down to last one just now, is the SPY reversion to mean gonna exit today ?
thanks, nah the open SPY
Posted by matt on 30th of Sep 2020 at 01:00 pm
thanks, nah the open SPY system will continue to hold for as long as it's momentum indicator stays positive.
BTW guys I added all the long stats to the SPY section, I will be adding all the stats for the shorts next. Also this isn't the final format. Right now when you click System Statistics you see the stats for each system and have to page down. I'm to add a summary page with all the stats in a nice clean table. Then I'll add a tab for Shorts and Longs and have statistic images in those for better organization.
anyway if you wish to view the stats now for the Long sub systems, there's 12 of them! you can do so now, click URL below
https://breakpointtrades.com/new_spy/
Just a point of clarification
Posted by jackbnimble on 30th of Sep 2020 at 03:42 pm
Just a point of clarification clicking directly on the systems tab brings you to breakpointtrades.com/spy/ which seems to be out of date as it shows the 9/8/2020 QE BTS as still being long this should probably be corrected to reduce confusion. Going Systems>Spy however brings you to the correct and presumably soon to be replaced breakpointtrades.com/current_spy/
I agree with you Jack,
Posted by signal46 on 30th of Sep 2020 at 06:23 pm
I agree with you Jack, I saw the same thing last night, but today is not going to the old data and goes to the correct numbers. They must have fixed it. :)
actually I think I know
Posted by matt on 30th of Sep 2020 at 07:25 pm
actually I think I know what you guys saw. As you know on the Systems navi tab there's two drop down tabs SPY and 401K Kiss system. However if you clicked on the Systems tab itself without clicking on one of those sub tabs it brought you to an old SPY page. Anyway we removed that so there should no longer be any confusion there
it's not out of date
Posted by matt on 30th of Sep 2020 at 04:14 pm
it's not out of date that system still has an open trade remember 1st and 2nd entry QE BTS are active and still long
I took both QE BTS
Posted by lapri24 on 1st of Oct 2020 at 12:25 am
I took both QE BTS entries (options), sold 1st the second trading day but still have the second entry. September has been a very bad month for me with the market crashed on my portfolio while I couldn't watch the market, and after that I've been totally out of sync with the market (buy high sell low...LOL). So I decided to trade using your system as a rehabilitation tool. so to speak.
Also bought NVDA on the breakout. So far making a baby step recovery. Thank you for your commentary/analysis and your systems. Particularly your market commentary.
lapri24 - we warned of
Posted by steve on 1st of Oct 2020 at 08:44 am
lapri24 - we warned of a correction following the parabolic move in late August/early September and suggested raising stops and/or taking profits. The main thing here is to LEARN and avoid such hits to your portfolio in the future.
Steve, totally agree. Late Aug/early
Posted by lapri24 on 1st of Oct 2020 at 10:54 am
Steve, totally agree. Late Aug/early Sept was unfortunately when life suddenly happened in a bad way and little time or presence of mind for the market. I saw the email for exhaustion short trade at the market top, a week later. I can only laugh and learn at this point.
Bro - I am with
Posted by fredsaid on 1st of Oct 2020 at 01:00 am
Bro - I am with you. The key and most difficult part of trading is timing (which time horizon are you trading on - short, swing or long - in fact I think if the boys used these terms more explicitively it would help vs. "trade on your time horizon" ; furthermore I think they should be define short=1-2 weeks, swing=1-2 months, long => 3month...I made that up but would love for the boys to entertain) and of course greed. When you get a winner take it - sold my NIO at small $400 profit at 22.20, then got stopped out on the rest for $130 loss. One of the things I try not to do is get back in, when the trade is over, it's over, no 2nd winds (painful lesson)- only exception to this is when there is a wedge with a back test. As I posted yesterday NVDA was awesome but I got out at 540 - no 2nd winds ; we could watch for a back test though. I'm still holding my 2nd entry on the QE BTS cause Matt said follow the momo (momentum) and actually bought a little more today (I also hedged it with a daily puts for Friday)- both are flat on the trade but time will run out on the hedge so i'll cash it when green if resistance holds no matter what. Matt and Steve are the best in the business. Period. They aren't fortune tellers but I kind of am and if September was bad for you like it was for me well don't fret, I feel a change coming to your tide ;) and mine lol.
This looks very professional. Thanks
Posted by mundy on 30th of Sep 2020 at 03:12 pm
This looks very professional. Thanks Matt.
I've now added all the
Posted by matt on 30th of Sep 2020 at 03:14 pm
I've now added all the stats tables to the SPY section for long and shorts. I'm not done as I stated earlier right now all the stats for the 20 systems are listed on that one page, I'm going to them broken down to Longs and Shorts add two tabs for those, and one tab that shows a summary table.
future SPY systems I would like to work on? I'd like to work on a breakout and a breakout system based on the cycle indicator from the KISS.
here's a link, you have to click on the system statistics tab, again it will be better organized later today vs just one long list, but you can now see all stats for the 20 systems
https://breakpointtrades.com/new_spy
Note I've also started adding
Posted by matt on 30th of Sep 2020 at 01:14 pm
Note I've also started adding some of the stats for short sub systems
there are 12 long systems and 8 short systems