Posted by rifleman1984 on 16th of Apr 2020 at 08:39 pm
I agree. An Ebola drug showing some effectiveness and
Boeing building more planes no one needs doesn’t seem to be that
bullish. On the other hand, uncle sugar has put so much cash
in the system that any reason to buy is contagious. ( no pun
intended)
Well futures are already 2866, so they've effectively gapped
past all the, island top, and divergences that were forming (wedge
etc.) maybe this will fill the 289 Gap, and hit the 0.618 fib
retracement and we can be done with this ripper of counter
trend.....other wise I guess we are looking at new highs...I mean
why not right?
don't get emotional, so far market hasn't don't anything or
rallied past my targets that I listed 2 and 3 weeks ago. I've
been targeting the 2850 - 2900 area at least for 2 to 3 weeks.
So why all the talk OMG things are not what you said?
all the market has done is rally back to these target areas.
Maybe it keeps going, maybe it goes to highs with all this
artificialness and trillions of dollars, but otherwise the 2900 has
been a target for a while, that has not been exceeded. And
again, if you are long SPX - you have your DVTS stop which
there have been 6. Then I get the question, well the SPY
system is short? Yes the QE BTS sub system is short. Well you could
also still be long from Mar 24th when I said the 120 min SPX system
was long way back at 2400, so you could still be long from that
time and have a separate reversion to mean short on at the same
time. I'll also mention that original Trend/Pullback is still long.
It's not all or nothing. Also I did give the option the other day
of taking some of that short off which many of reduced as you said
so here.
look guys just saying trying not getting all emotional, it
always makes your trading worse, causes you to make rash decisions,
veer from your discipline, and honestly many times I see folks get
the most emotional just before an inflection point.
Matt - Your analysis is spot on. Most people get very
emotional during inflection points. I went short at today's
open. then cashed out midday. Then I went short again
during the next bounce but then got stopped out an hour before the
close. Then i saw the news hit about Trump and giving a news
conference so I new to exit my short position. I lost 2% of
my gains but was up for the day. Then I went long Weekly SPY
call options that expire next week and going to cash out tomorrow.
I will look to go short again at the gap into huge
resistance around 290. If I do not get any signals than I
will just go to cash. Emotion is the #1 killer of trades.
Anyone can make an argument why you should be bullish or
bearish right now but price and time and TA is going to win over.
The market doesnt give a rats ass about what anyone thinks.
Its job is to fool you and take your money.
it’s better to look at daily charts to know the levels during
the day and most importantly remember not to get carried away with
the shape of the candle stick until closing. Trendspider charting
seems to be more informative than stock charts lately.
Posted by retirefire on 16th of Apr 2020 at 07:55 pm
Thanks Matt, I like how one could be long or short or both while
using multiple systems and strategies. I'll be more attentive
to the next DVTS entry, break away gap you called was awesome.
Hedging is new and been working for me. Thanks.
Anyone know why futures popped
Posted by jerkelly on 16th of Apr 2020 at 04:58 pm
Anyone know why futures popped there at the end. I don’t see anything on CNBC
It was the Gilead news.
Posted by jerkelly on 16th of Apr 2020 at 05:17 pm
It was the Gilead news. I’m seeing it now on CNBC
Probably this: https://breakpointtrades.com/blog/post/320216/. Feels like a
Posted by patellee on 16th of Apr 2020 at 05:08 pm
Probably this: https://breakpointtrades.com/blog/post/320216/.
Feels like a sell the news headline to me. I am staying focused on the charts.
I agree. An Ebola drug
Posted by rifleman1984 on 16th of Apr 2020 at 08:39 pm
I agree. An Ebola drug showing some effectiveness and Boeing building more planes no one needs doesn’t seem to be that bullish. On the other hand, uncle sugar has put so much cash in the system that any reason to buy is contagious. ( no pun intended)
Well futures are already 2866,
Posted by erikvik on 16th of Apr 2020 at 05:19 pm
Well futures are already 2866, so they've effectively gapped past all the, island top, and divergences that were forming (wedge etc.) maybe this will fill the 289 Gap, and hit the 0.618 fib retracement and we can be done with this ripper of counter trend.....other wise I guess we are looking at new highs...I mean why not right?
don't get emotional, so far
Posted by matt on 16th of Apr 2020 at 07:35 pm
don't get emotional, so far market hasn't don't anything or rallied past my targets that I listed 2 and 3 weeks ago. I've been targeting the 2850 - 2900 area at least for 2 to 3 weeks. So why all the talk OMG things are not what you said? all the market has done is rally back to these target areas. Maybe it keeps going, maybe it goes to highs with all this artificialness and trillions of dollars, but otherwise the 2900 has been a target for a while, that has not been exceeded. And again, if you are long SPX - you have your DVTS stop which there have been 6. Then I get the question, well the SPY system is short? Yes the QE BTS sub system is short. Well you could also still be long from Mar 24th when I said the 120 min SPX system was long way back at 2400, so you could still be long from that time and have a separate reversion to mean short on at the same time. I'll also mention that original Trend/Pullback is still long. It's not all or nothing. Also I did give the option the other day of taking some of that short off which many of reduced as you said so here.
look guys just saying trying not getting all emotional, it always makes your trading worse, causes you to make rash decisions, veer from your discipline, and honestly many times I see folks get the most emotional just before an inflection point.
anyway big gap obviously, tomorrow is OPEX.
Matt - Your analysis is
Posted by ssaffer on 16th of Apr 2020 at 10:34 pm
Matt - Your analysis is spot on. Most people get very emotional during inflection points. I went short at today's open. then cashed out midday. Then I went short again during the next bounce but then got stopped out an hour before the close. Then i saw the news hit about Trump and giving a news conference so I new to exit my short position. I lost 2% of my gains but was up for the day. Then I went long Weekly SPY call options that expire next week and going to cash out tomorrow. I will look to go short again at the gap into huge resistance around 290. If I do not get any signals than I will just go to cash. Emotion is the #1 killer of trades. Anyone can make an argument why you should be bullish or bearish right now but price and time and TA is going to win over. The market doesnt give a rats ass about what anyone thinks. Its job is to fool you and take your money.
it’s better to look at
Posted by arun on 16th of Apr 2020 at 10:51 pm
it’s better to look at daily charts to know the levels during the day and most importantly remember not to get carried away with the shape of the candle stick until closing. Trendspider charting seems to be more informative than stock charts lately.
nailed it matt!!
Posted by RP on 16th of Apr 2020 at 09:15 pm
nailed it matt!!
Thanks Matt, I like how
Posted by retirefire on 16th of Apr 2020 at 07:55 pm
Thanks Matt, I like how one could be long or short or both while using multiple systems and strategies. I'll be more attentive to the next DVTS entry, break away gap you called was awesome. Hedging is new and been working for me. Thanks.
Problem here is - we
Posted by arun on 16th of Apr 2020 at 07:40 pm
Problem here is - we all get too bearish or too bullish... .. This market is more about psychology than economy
true there
Posted by matt on 16th of Apr 2020 at 07:41 pm
true there
It hasn't decisively moved past
Posted by patellee on 16th of Apr 2020 at 07:17 pm
It hasn't decisively moved past the bullish wedge so could be a fake breakout given it gapped open (gaps usually get filled).