One trader’s perspective--I have been trading the SPY system,
and my feeling about the current situation is that even if these
trades result in a loss, over time that loss will be more than made
up because of the quality of the system, about that I have no
doubt. Also, I find that during this remarkable week, I have
not lacked any confidence at all that there will be profits.
It may take a while, and maybe not necessarily with this set
of trades, but I have that confidence nonetheless. I would
like to see the sell trades posted as the systems indicate.
Posted by elementsix on 28th of Feb 2020 at 04:45 pm
Couldn't agree more with 24kau. It's psychologically hard to
watch these reversion to mean trades on the way down but I
absolutely believe in the system. No system is perfect and this
could be an instance where it doesn't work 100% in
our favor. That being said, my positions have 77 days til
expiration and my BPT options positions
paired their total losses by almost 50% in
the last 15 mins of trading today. One even went
green. So stick with it everyone and a big thanks to Matt and
Steve!
ditto, the system is great and makes a profit 99% of time. What
is important is the trade size dedicated to entries 1 and 2. These
make the most entries and profit. But occasionally every
couple of years there are black swans (2 in 2018) and it is these
events that require risk management. AS STEVE and MATT have
constantly said, don't trade all of your acct in spy system.
I have allotted 10% of my spy acct to entry 1. 15% to entry 2. 20%
to entry 3. ETC because entries 3 to 5 far less
frequent (some only occur every few years) I will leave that
reserve $$ in the spy and use Matt's 120 min system to get out and
have that cash available for the black swan event at lower levels.
The draw downs for entry 4 and 5 are a lot less. Thanks Matt
for the great systems and please keep them going. It is the correct
allocation of trade size to entry 1 and 2 that matter in the long
run. And if is makes a loss once every ten years, it is more than
made up for by the 70% average annual gain by the appropriate
modest entry size for entry 1 and 2.
One trader’s perspective--I have been
Here's some thoughts on the reversion to mean system trades
Posted by 24kau on 28th of Feb 2020 at 04:13 pm
One trader’s perspective--I have been trading the SPY system, and my feeling about the current situation is that even if these trades result in a loss, over time that loss will be more than made up because of the quality of the system, about that I have no doubt. Also, I find that during this remarkable week, I have not lacked any confidence at all that there will be profits. It may take a while, and maybe not necessarily with this set of trades, but I have that confidence nonetheless. I would like to see the sell trades posted as the systems indicate.
YES to this comment
Posted by mundy on 1st of Mar 2020 at 09:48 pm
YES to this comment
Couldn't agree more with 24kau.
Posted by elementsix on 28th of Feb 2020 at 04:45 pm
Couldn't agree more with 24kau. It's psychologically hard to watch these reversion to mean trades on the way down but I absolutely believe in the system. No system is perfect and this could be an instance where it doesn't work 100% in our favor. That being said, my positions have 77 days til expiration and my BPT options positions paired their total losses by almost 50% in the last 15 mins of trading today. One even went green . So stick with it everyone and a big thanks to Matt and Steve!
ditto, the system is great
Posted by elliotw on 28th of Feb 2020 at 04:59 pm
ditto, the system is great and makes a profit 99% of time. What is important is the trade size dedicated to entries 1 and 2. These make the most entries and profit. But occasionally every couple of years there are black swans (2 in 2018) and it is these events that require risk management. AS STEVE and MATT have constantly said, don't trade all of your acct in spy system. I have allotted 10% of my spy acct to entry 1. 15% to entry 2. 20% to entry 3. ETC because entries 3 to 5 far less frequent (some only occur every few years) I will leave that reserve $$ in the spy and use Matt's 120 min system to get out and have that cash available for the black swan event at lower levels. The draw downs for entry 4 and 5 are a lot less. Thanks Matt for the great systems and please keep them going. It is the correct allocation of trade size to entry 1 and 2 that matter in the long run. And if is makes a loss once every ten years, it is more than made up for by the 70% average annual gain by the appropriate modest entry size for entry 1 and 2.
I agree. Please keep posting
Posted by tleahy on 28th of Feb 2020 at 04:16 pm
I agree. Please keep posting the trades.