I've posted that so many times, however you are in New Zealand
on a very different time zone so you might not have seen them.
I almost always post statistic data for every trade that
occurs. I've said this trade tends to be quite short term. The max
draw down is around 1.2%, currently this trade has a draw down of
0.61%. people getting emotional over 0.61%? look over the
trade history, if you can't stand it set a stop over the max
historical draw down.
Also, the exhaustion condition remember is a large number of
days price has been above the 9 SMA
Currently price has closed over the 9 SMA for 32 consecutive
days. To give you some statistics since 1980 this has only occurred
6 times on the SPX with a max draw down of 1.85%.
That's 6 times in 40 years
The max number of consecutive closes above the 9 SMA since 1980
, 40 years is 42 times. We are currently at 32 times.
the scan showing the number of days on the left, currently we
are at number 32. Max draw down based on 100K is on the
right, so 1874 is 1.874%
again when I look at the statistics currently with today's close
we are looking at 6 examples in 40 years. Could price go higher for
a week and it stay above for 40 days? sure, but when I look at the
statistics, I'm not shaking in my boots on this trade. In fact, the
best thing would be for price to go higher thus causing a SECOND
ENTRY, which I double up on and thus make more money on the
trade.
Matt, thanks for all you do; I know you carry the burden of the
trading system especially when we get that rare (slightly losing
trade) which hasn't even closed out yet. For all we know, after a
second entry it could be a huge winner!
As the market churns higher gaining maybe .3% per day, we need
to be patient knowing that when it does fall or correct, it goes
down very quickly and can wipe out three weeks of those types of
gains in 2-3 days!
I feel that the short position is a very minor hedge in this
market and a good test of emotions. We should all understand our
own emotions and knowing how to handle these feelings make us
better traders!
thanks guys, yes that is true I do tend o carry the burden on
these trades LOL
also one last comment mainly to the guy who was distraught
yesterday: Remember trading is not all or nothing and that
includes the market. If you would rather play the trending type
system and be long, then why aren't you? The daily DVT BPT MA
is still long from early Oct, and the 120 min went long that time,
got out for a few days in early Dec then got back in and is still
long. What I mean is, just because the SPY Exhaustion short
as a trade, does that mean you cannot still be long the SPX vis the
daily or the 120 min system with your higher low stop in place at
the same time? I'm still long SSO in my 401K, I'm not out of
that just because SPY exhaustion is in a short. You an maintain one
position but play the opposite trade with different instruments
ETF's i.e. you can be long SPY and long SH at the same Just because
SPY exhaustion took a trade does not mean you go fully in on
that.
Could you program it into an indicator for Tradestation? I did
not go long in October, and then it was too late. I have missed the
entire move. If I have it on my computer, I could closely follow
it.
hopefully seeing those stats help you guys. Obviously doesn't
mean this won't be the time when price stays over the 9 SMA for 50
days and this is a losing trade, records are made to be broken and
trading always caries a risk. But these trades are all about
probabilities and statistics and this is a rare hard to hit
condition. And also these 1st entry trades really don't make
much, especially these because they are not monster trades, thus
really to make anything on them you almost need a second entry.
LOL but I don't know if anyone can take that ha ha, people
have started to get emotional about the market here per some of the
posts today
Matt, have you looked at
Posted by mundy on 23rd of Jan 2020 at 09:35 pm
Matt, have you looked at the average time the Exhaustion Trade I stays in a trade? Could/should there be a hard stop?
I've posted that so many
Posted by matt on 23rd of Jan 2020 at 10:36 pm
I've posted that so many times, however you are in New Zealand on a very different time zone so you might not have seen them. I almost always post statistic data for every trade that occurs. I've said this trade tends to be quite short term. The max draw down is around 1.2%, currently this trade has a draw down of 0.61%. people getting emotional over 0.61%? look over the trade history, if you can't stand it set a stop over the max historical draw down.
Also, the exhaustion condition remember
Posted by matt on 23rd of Jan 2020 at 10:40 pm
Also, the exhaustion condition remember is a large number of days price has been above the 9 SMA
Currently price has closed over the 9 SMA for 32 consecutive days. To give you some statistics since 1980 this has only occurred 6 times on the SPX with a max draw down of 1.85%. That's 6 times in 40 years
The max number of consecutive closes above the 9 SMA since 1980 , 40 years is 42 times. We are currently at 32 times. the scan showing the number of days on the left, currently we are at number 32. Max draw down based on 100K is on the right, so 1874 is 1.874%
again when I look at the statistics currently with today's close we are looking at 6 examples in 40 years. Could price go higher for a week and it stay above for 40 days? sure, but when I look at the statistics, I'm not shaking in my boots on this trade. In fact, the best thing would be for price to go higher thus causing a SECOND ENTRY, which I double up on and thus make more money on the trade.
Matt, thanks for all you
Posted by cozz101 on 24th of Jan 2020 at 09:00 am
Matt, thanks for all you do; I know you carry the burden of the trading system especially when we get that rare (slightly losing trade) which hasn't even closed out yet. For all we know, after a second entry it could be a huge winner!
As the market churns higher gaining maybe .3% per day, we need to be patient knowing that when it does fall or correct, it goes down very quickly and can wipe out three weeks of those types of gains in 2-3 days!
I feel that the short position is a very minor hedge in this market and a good test of emotions. We should all understand our own emotions and knowing how to handle these feelings make us better traders!
thanks guys, yes that is
Posted by matt on 24th of Jan 2020 at 09:52 am
thanks guys, yes that is true I do tend o carry the burden on these trades LOL
also one last comment mainly to the guy who was distraught yesterday: Remember trading is not all or nothing and that includes the market. If you would rather play the trending type system and be long, then why aren't you? The daily DVT BPT MA is still long from early Oct, and the 120 min went long that time, got out for a few days in early Dec then got back in and is still long. What I mean is, just because the SPY Exhaustion short as a trade, does that mean you cannot still be long the SPX vis the daily or the 120 min system with your higher low stop in place at the same time? I'm still long SSO in my 401K, I'm not out of that just because SPY exhaustion is in a short. You an maintain one position but play the opposite trade with different instruments ETF's i.e. you can be long SPY and long SH at the same Just because SPY exhaustion took a trade does not mean you go fully in on that.
Could you program it into
Posted by junkie on 24th of Jan 2020 at 11:20 am
Could you program it into an indicator for Tradestation? I did not go long in October, and then it was too late. I have missed the entire move. If I have it on my computer, I could closely follow it.
good explanation....just like you can
Posted by morton7 on 24th of Jan 2020 at 10:16 am
good explanation....just like you can be long and short different investments...shorting DIS and AMGN right now while long others...
Thanks for showing the big
Posted by retirefire on 24th of Jan 2020 at 10:14 am
Thanks for showing the big piture
Great stats, thank you Matt.
Posted by mundy on 23rd of Jan 2020 at 10:43 pm
Great stats, thank you Matt.
hopefully seeing those stats help
Posted by matt on 23rd of Jan 2020 at 10:48 pm
hopefully seeing those stats help you guys. Obviously doesn't mean this won't be the time when price stays over the 9 SMA for 50 days and this is a losing trade, records are made to be broken and trading always caries a risk. But these trades are all about probabilities and statistics and this is a rare hard to hit condition. And also these 1st entry trades really don't make much, especially these because they are not monster trades, thus really to make anything on them you almost need a second entry. LOL but I don't know if anyone can take that ha ha, people have started to get emotional about the market here per some of the posts today
Yes these stats are very
Posted by mundy on 23rd of Jan 2020 at 11:01 pm
Yes these stats are very helpful. Your comment re the second signal is very true, the most money is generally made on the doubled up second trade.