Matt, Appreciate the effort you and Steve put forth day in/day
out, always start my day with the newsletter.
Question: How can sentiment be described right now as "too
bearish"? Honestly. Majority of traders and investors
have a quiet smirk on their face and are counting their profits,
the market continues to move higher nearly every day, I can't find
anyone who is selling...and then comments like this start
appearing: "maybe the market will never go down". If
anything, sentiment seems euphoric to me. Could you please
explain what I'm missing?
Richie - IMO it's best to view sentiment as a secondary
indicator (price is the primary indicator) and something to monitor
over time for extreme readings. Measuring sentiment can be
somewhat difficult with many such distinct measurements.
However, one must look at a uniform measurement gauge (better
to view multiple gauges) instead of simply looking at a limited
audience.
Posted by racerick on 17th of Dec 2019 at 09:28 am
Richie, When you go to a Christmas party and everyone is talking
about the money they've been making in the market or your
grandmother calls you to ask what stock she should be trading, then
that's euphoria. Most have not been trusting this rally for awhile
and historically that has not been when markets top.
RichieD what I hear is the retail investor(mom and pop) by and
large has not joined the party yet. Eventually FOMO will kick in
and they will. Until then......party likes it 1999!
When your gardener tells you to buy stocks and has a hot stock
tip. Although I will say that in late 2007 I was buying
treasury coupons yielding 5% and my broker at the time (big firm
will not mention) laughed at told me that was too conservative and
buying stocks made much more sense. Then in 2008, I asked him
if I was too conservative now? As this big firm had to be saved by
the Fed.
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Matt, Appreciate the effort you
Posted by RichieD on 17th of Dec 2019 at 07:08 am
Matt, Appreciate the effort you and Steve put forth day in/day out, always start my day with the newsletter.
Question: How can sentiment be described right now as "too bearish"? Honestly. Majority of traders and investors have a quiet smirk on their face and are counting their profits, the market continues to move higher nearly every day, I can't find anyone who is selling...and then comments like this start appearing: "maybe the market will never go down". If anything, sentiment seems euphoric to me. Could you please explain what I'm missing?
Richie - IMO it's best
Posted by steve on 17th of Dec 2019 at 10:19 am
Richie - IMO it's best to view sentiment as a secondary indicator (price is the primary indicator) and something to monitor over time for extreme readings. Measuring sentiment can be somewhat difficult with many such distinct measurements. However, one must look at a uniform measurement gauge (better to view multiple gauges) instead of simply looking at a limited audience.
Richie, When you go to
Posted by racerick on 17th of Dec 2019 at 09:28 am
Richie, When you go to a Christmas party and everyone is talking about the money they've been making in the market or your grandmother calls you to ask what stock she should be trading, then that's euphoria. Most have not been trusting this rally for awhile and historically that has not been when markets top.
Guess we'll know the answer
Posted by RichieD on 17th of Dec 2019 at 10:16 am
Guess we'll know the answer next week.
RichieD what I hear is
Posted by tgo5043 on 17th of Dec 2019 at 09:08 am
RichieD what I hear is the retail investor(mom and pop) by and large has not joined the party yet. Eventually FOMO will kick in and they will. Until then......party likes it 1999!
When your gardener tells you
Posted by ssaffer on 17th of Dec 2019 at 10:17 am
When your gardener tells you to buy stocks and has a hot stock tip. Although I will say that in late 2007 I was buying treasury coupons yielding 5% and my broker at the time (big firm will not mention) laughed at told me that was too conservative and buying stocks made much more sense. Then in 2008, I asked him if I was too conservative now? As this big firm had to be saved by the Fed.