As you know I have suspended the SPY system for now. However I
would like to point out that today one of the sub systems triggered
short, which is a rare one called the Exhaustion Short. AS
the name implies it only triggers after a long sustained price
run-up where price has rallied in most a V pattern with very
shallow pullbacks. This particular condition only triggers if
prices has closed above the 10 day SMA > 21 days, along with a
%R indicator over 94%.
I've attached images of the statistics, profit curve, and trade
list (there's not lot of trades as this is a rare setup. The
condition has occurred basically 15 times in 25 years. The
trade has a low max historical draw down of about 1.56%, so very
low. The trade only looks for a statistical reversion to mean
pullback, in this case a close back below the 10 day SMA.
I've also attached example trades from the past, as you can
see this trade setup can appear in the middle of a strong uptrend
where price simply pulls back then resumes its rally, or neat a
larger top, it's basically 50/50.
Agan I'm not posting this as an official trade alert, I'm
posting it because it's a rare exhaustion condition and could mean
that the market is getting close to a pullback
Posted by jtsurfah on 13th of Feb 2019 at 04:39 pm
Thanks for the SPY system notification last night. I
bought some in the money SPX puts to fade this morning's opening
push. All the action/volume was on the out of the money side, but
that's not really my style unless it's a gamble type trade. I also
typically stick to spread trades, but in this case, I went with
naked puts because I don't see holding them for very
long.
1st target is the 9 EMA around 2720? Unofficially of
course - I realize you have discontinued the SPY system for
the time being.
On that particular setup it will close out on a close back below
the 10 SMA, but yes 9 EMA good good guide.
again guys one comment I want to respond to from this morning,
someone said I discontinued the system because it was shorting the
whole time on the rally, that's not entirely true. Yes the
trade I sent out was short but the 'breakout sub system is still
long from Jan 18th and 19th. Why didn't I sent that one out as as
long? The main reason for discontinuing the system (for now)
was that I have to decide on the FINAL version of all the systems
and stick to those, the problem I was doing was having multiple
versions, which lead to confusion on my part as far as trying to
send signals, opened the door to me picking and choosing at times
i.e. that's just no way to run a system and I can't subject you
guys to that. So until I decide the true and final version, I have
to leave it off the table. So what has to be decided is the
final sub systems for longs and shorts that I'm going with.
Once I do that, I bring it back. I'll do an extensive video
on that of course when I do.
the reason for posting the exhaustion setup was more for
statistical purposes, it's a rare condition and may be a reason to
be a bit cautious now up at these levels on longs.
yes I'd say 9 times out of 10 the bear long trade that went long
in late Dec would have stayed long and caught this whole uptrend!
Many times those bear long trades last 1 - 2 1/2 months!
The issue was that little pullback in Jan that caused the
system to go flat, had the market chopped there for a couple days
the system would have held this whole time by this momentum
indicator you see here on the chart. It's bad luck really
that it happened that way, really bothers me. It's like 9
times out of 10 this would have happened and we get the rare time
it doesn't. been frustrating
anyway here's a couple past trades of the Bear Long - what
caused it to stay long was the momentum indicator went green and
held the trade. As you can see this time around the momentum
indicator went red in early Jan, thus causing the trade to go flat,
but right after the trade when flat the momentum indicator went
green and stayed - had that momentum indicator not turned red for a
couple days there the system would have held. Again bad luck
on that
again market going to open so back to trading not discussing
this intra day focusing on trading
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SPY Exhaustion Trade Stats
Posted by matt on 12th of Feb 2019 at 11:43 pm
As you know I have suspended the SPY system for now. However I would like to point out that today one of the sub systems triggered short, which is a rare one called the Exhaustion Short. AS the name implies it only triggers after a long sustained price run-up where price has rallied in most a V pattern with very shallow pullbacks. This particular condition only triggers if prices has closed above the 10 day SMA > 21 days, along with a %R indicator over 94%.
I've attached images of the statistics, profit curve, and trade list (there's not lot of trades as this is a rare setup. The condition has occurred basically 15 times in 25 years. The trade has a low max historical draw down of about 1.56%, so very low. The trade only looks for a statistical reversion to mean pullback, in this case a close back below the 10 day SMA. I've also attached example trades from the past, as you can see this trade setup can appear in the middle of a strong uptrend where price simply pulls back then resumes its rally, or neat a larger top, it's basically 50/50.
Agan I'm not posting this as an official trade alert, I'm posting it because it's a rare exhaustion condition and could mean that the market is getting close to a pullback
Thanks for the SPY system
Posted by jtsurfah on 13th of Feb 2019 at 04:39 pm
Thanks for the SPY system notification last night. I bought some in the money SPX puts to fade this morning's opening push. All the action/volume was on the out of the money side, but that's not really my style unless it's a gamble type trade. I also typically stick to spread trades, but in this case, I went with naked puts because I don't see holding them for very long.
1st target is the 9 EMA around 2720? Unofficially of course - I realize you have discontinued the SPY system for the time being.
On that particular setup it
Posted by matt on 13th of Feb 2019 at 06:04 pm
On that particular setup it will close out on a close back below the 10 SMA, but yes 9 EMA good good guide.
again guys one comment I want to respond to from this morning, someone said I discontinued the system because it was shorting the whole time on the rally, that's not entirely true. Yes the trade I sent out was short but the 'breakout sub system is still long from Jan 18th and 19th. Why didn't I sent that one out as as long? The main reason for discontinuing the system (for now) was that I have to decide on the FINAL version of all the systems and stick to those, the problem I was doing was having multiple versions, which lead to confusion on my part as far as trying to send signals, opened the door to me picking and choosing at times i.e. that's just no way to run a system and I can't subject you guys to that. So until I decide the true and final version, I have to leave it off the table. So what has to be decided is the final sub systems for longs and shorts that I'm going with. Once I do that, I bring it back. I'll do an extensive video on that of course when I do.
the reason for posting the exhaustion setup was more for statistical purposes, it's a rare condition and may be a reason to be a bit cautious now up at these levels on longs.
Were last nights' statistics from
Posted by jtsurfah on 13th of Feb 2019 at 07:28 pm
Were last nights' statistics from Back-testing or Actual Trade Data?
SPY April 18th 248 strike
Posted by stoclady on 13th of Feb 2019 at 10:09 am
SPY April 18th 248 strike someone bought 8K this morning
Puts/calls? actually on the market
Posted by matt on 13th of Feb 2019 at 10:40 am
Puts/calls?
actually on the market consolidation last week and Monday on my option sweep scanner I saw tons and tons of SPY option call sweeps.
anyway we'll see how today unfolds, usually following a trend day the market has a consolidation day but so far it's up nicely at least for now.
for me personally I'm just managing my trade setups and day trading ES futures.
Puts not Calls
Posted by stoclady on 13th of Feb 2019 at 10:10 am
Puts not Calls
Like; this is a helpful
Posted by lklam on 13th of Feb 2019 at 09:19 am
Like; this is a helpful signal at a helpful time.
Please continue to send out signals by email !!
I feel like the spy
Posted by icejodah on 13th of Feb 2019 at 09:05 am
I feel like the spy system would have caught the big spy moves these last couple of weeks.
yes I'd say 9 times
Posted by matt on 13th of Feb 2019 at 09:25 am
yes I'd say 9 times out of 10 the bear long trade that went long in late Dec would have stayed long and caught this whole uptrend! Many times those bear long trades last 1 - 2 1/2 months! The issue was that little pullback in Jan that caused the system to go flat, had the market chopped there for a couple days the system would have held this whole time by this momentum indicator you see here on the chart. It's bad luck really that it happened that way, really bothers me. It's like 9 times out of 10 this would have happened and we get the rare time it doesn't. been frustrating
anyway here's a couple past trades of the Bear Long - what caused it to stay long was the momentum indicator went green and held the trade. As you can see this time around the momentum indicator went red in early Jan, thus causing the trade to go flat, but right after the trade when flat the momentum indicator went green and stayed - had that momentum indicator not turned red for a couple days there the system would have held. Again bad luck on that
again market going to open so back to trading not discussing this intra day focusing on trading