cuqui -My thoughts are stated below on a reply to morton.
I see emotions are running very high and that suggests you may have
too much exposure to the market. I preached an EXIT STRATEGY be in
place many times PRIOR to recent top. Hedging and or a decent
cash position is certainly prudent after such an extended move up.
The bears are in contol now and we respect until evidence
changes. I'm trying to get the newsletter done so have to
run.
Matt/Steve - I have a suggestion. Instead of focusing on
waves/sub waves /truncated waves/ A-B-C wave/1-2-3-4 waves etc
- Is it possible to do the technical analysis in a simpler
way by identifying the pivots(fib retracements) . I have been
following you guys for a long time and I never found the waves
helpful (if anything they are confusing). just my two cents.....
over exposure defn hurts esp during counter trend trades . I
learnt it the hard way. gave up a lot of gain this year but
still in gains ....
arun - I have simplified as much as possible and provided data
points using Fibs, Pivots all within the newsletter last night.
I suggest you listen.
The trend in the market remains to the downside and one must see
clear evidence for that to change. Panic (or forced) selling
does not care about support. Keep an eye on TLT - for a rally
to sustain prefer to see TLT also move higher. When the SPX
rallied without TLT this week, it eventually stalled and reversed
back down.
That being said - I want you guys to know - I literally keep few
of you charts open with auto refresh while I trade - I find the
daily charts and 60 min charts amazing - I have multiple
subscriptions - but your charts are def the best
jtverr - just one quick comment on wave structure (your 4th wave
would be completely disproportionate to wave 2) The rally was
nearly 50% on SPX which is much more representative of a larger
degree wave (like a B wave). Again, my advice is to not get
bogged down with that but respect your triggers. Just keep
using what is working for you on trading - kudos.
Respect the prevailing trend until evidence changes is what
works for me and the prevailing trend has been down - there is a
reversal setup now to monitor but I want to see a
trigger.
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jtver - look at Steve's
SPY. So much for the ABC. Now we have five ...
Posted by matt on 8th of Feb 2018 at 04:13 pm
jtver - look at Steve's chart - it's still ABC, it's just a much faster one vs lingering around
Hi matt and steve this
Posted by cuqui69 on 8th of Feb 2018 at 05:32 pm
Hi matt and steve this looks like a crash is coming. Any thoughts?
cuqui -My thoughts are stated
Posted by steve on 8th of Feb 2018 at 05:50 pm
cuqui -My thoughts are stated below on a reply to morton. I see emotions are running very high and that suggests you may have too much exposure to the market. I preached an EXIT STRATEGY be in place many times PRIOR to recent top. Hedging and or a decent cash position is certainly prudent after such an extended move up. The bears are in contol now and we respect until evidence changes. I'm trying to get the newsletter done so have to run.
Matt/Steve - I have a
Posted by arun on 8th of Feb 2018 at 09:07 pm
Matt/Steve - I have a suggestion. Instead of focusing on waves/sub waves /truncated waves/ A-B-C wave/1-2-3-4 waves etc - Is it possible to do the technical analysis in a simpler way by identifying the pivots(fib retracements) . I have been following you guys for a long time and I never found the waves helpful (if anything they are confusing). just my two cents.....
over exposure defn hurts esp during counter trend trades . I learnt it the hard way. gave up a lot of gain this year but still in gains ....
arun - I have simplified
Posted by steve on 9th of Feb 2018 at 07:00 am
arun - I have simplified as much as possible and provided data points using Fibs, Pivots all within the newsletter last night. I suggest you listen.
The trend in the market remains to the downside and one must see clear evidence for that to change. Panic (or forced) selling does not care about support. Keep an eye on TLT - for a rally to sustain prefer to see TLT also move higher. When the SPX rallied without TLT this week, it eventually stalled and reversed back down.
That being said - I
Posted by arun on 8th of Feb 2018 at 10:35 pm
That being said - I want you guys to know - I literally keep few of you charts open with auto refresh while I trade - I find the daily charts and 60 min charts amazing - I have multiple subscriptions - but your charts are def the best
I agree, the BPT charts
Posted by disciple33 on 8th of Feb 2018 at 11:46 pm
I agree, the BPT charts are golden, and it's great that we can have links to the actual charts, not just screenshots, as many services provide.
Too late for the exit
Posted by cuqui69 on 8th of Feb 2018 at 06:01 pm
Too late for the exit strategy for the top. With the MA's the way they are do you think there could be a crash?
Ok, so can A down
Posted by jtverr on 8th of Feb 2018 at 04:25 pm
Ok, so can A down be in five waves? Yes?
jtverr - just one quick
Posted by steve on 8th of Feb 2018 at 04:43 pm
jtverr - just one quick comment on wave structure (your 4th wave would be completely disproportionate to wave 2) The rally was nearly 50% on SPX which is much more representative of a larger degree wave (like a B wave). Again, my advice is to not get bogged down with that but respect your triggers. Just keep using what is working for you on trading - kudos.
Respect the prevailing trend until evidence changes is what works for me and the prevailing trend has been down - there is a reversal setup now to monitor but I want to see a trigger.