Posted by peterwelsh on 8th of Oct 2015 at 05:39 pm
I noticed on a old ThinkScript blog, it stated it is best used
on a weekly chart? Thoughts. It also had a free program code that I
copied for TOS and it worked!!
Does anyone have data on the speculative positioning ahead of
Zweig Breadth Thrusts? I mentioned the YTD extremes in hedge fund
ES shorts and warned of a potential squeeze last week. I wonder if
that is atypical and a qualifying factor this time.
Thanks bravestar..appreciate the input. As always, we will
adjust to the message of the market (via signals) but it's nice to
know that a ZBT did occur.
Thanks, bravestar. Having seen earlier articles by Tom on this,
I'm glad he did this longer-term work on the signal. I'll try to
add some fund-flow & speculative positioning data to it.
Thanks, Puma. That article speaks to the risk -- that is, short
covering technically weakens a market by taking covering buyers out
of it; and the kind of squeeze we just witnessed could really
weaken it without evidence of new buyers coming in. I will do some
work on that when the COT comes out today and over the next week to
see if there's supporting evidence for the signal.
As of 10/6, hedge funds were not only not covering ES shorts,
but doubling down to YTD high net shorts. They have had a
performance problem shorting low & buying high this year, and
that may be continuing for now. Maybe they have staying power this
time. We'll see.
Broad Market Money Flow, in line with the Zweig signal,
continued positive last week.
I was talking to one of the funds the other day, many of these
guys follow seasonality i.e. read the StockTradersAlmanac and make
big bets based on that. The fund I was talking to has been
bullish who for example is bullish as we had a down Aug and Sept,
which historically bodes well for Oct and year end rally. At
least that's what this guy/fund does, wouldn't surprise me if more
of them do it.
But again as I talked about last night, even under a bullish W
type of scenario, there will be a pullback to form a higher low and
we have a plenty of resistance let above, still the 2021 trend, and
2019 pivot, the 200 EMA, the 61.8% Fib, and the broken neckline of
the rounded top H&S pattern from the summer which was lost in
Aug, comes in around 2040 - 2050
peterwelsh..the ZBT is a very rare and BULLISH occurrence.
It normally kick starts another uptrend but there can
certainly be corrections along the way. Trade your plan.
If the pattern holds, it would set a retest of MA(200) at 2061
over time. There is little resistance between the today's close and
that area. $NYMO is sky high at the moment though.
Does anybody have a service
Posted by steve on 8th of Oct 2015 at 04:21 pm
Does anybody have a service with a Zweig Breadth Thrust Indicator? This move may have confirmed.
Confirmed???? a bull or bear?
Posted by peterwelsh on 8th of Oct 2015 at 05:05 pm
Confirmed???? a bull or bear?
suggest you do a blog
Posted by matt on 8th of Oct 2015 at 05:09 pm
suggest you do a blog search for past posts on it by using the search blog on the left breadth thrust
and try googling it to read up more
it's potentially quite a bullish event but doesn't mean it's 100% either, but something to note
Thanks Matt and Steve. I
Posted by peterwelsh on 8th of Oct 2015 at 05:20 pm
Thanks Matt and Steve. I will research it.
I noticed on a old
Posted by peterwelsh on 8th of Oct 2015 at 05:39 pm
I noticed on a old ThinkScript blog, it stated it is best used on a weekly chart? Thoughts. It also had a free program code that I copied for TOS and it worked!!
Tried to add a chart
Posted by peterwelsh on 8th of Oct 2015 at 05:51 pm
Tried to add a chart with my free Zweig indicator at the bottom.
Does anyone have data on
Posted by a_l_ on 9th of Oct 2015 at 10:25 am
Does anyone have data on the speculative positioning ahead of Zweig Breadth Thrusts? I mentioned the YTD extremes in hedge fund ES shorts and warned of a potential squeeze last week. I wonder if that is atypical and a qualifying factor this time.
Here's some more info on
Posted by puma on 9th of Oct 2015 at 11:09 am
Here's some more info on shorts and this rally, but I don't know that it provides the info that directly addresses Zweig Breadth Thursts.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-09/its-not-risk-rally-biggest-short-squeeze-years-says-bank-america
Zweig article
Posted by bravestar on 9th of Oct 2015 at 11:42 am
http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/?utm_source=McClellan+Chart+In+Focus+-&utm_campaign=1040d24088-CIF_Zweig_Breadth_Thrust_Signal10_9_2015&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_9e79f8200f-1040d24088-151424593
Thanks bravestar..appreciate the input. As
Posted by steve on 9th of Oct 2015 at 12:01 pm
Thanks bravestar..appreciate the input. As always, we will adjust to the message of the market (via signals) but it's nice to know that a ZBT did occur.
Thanks, bravestar. Having seen earlier
Posted by a_l_ on 9th of Oct 2015 at 11:51 am
Thanks, bravestar. Having seen earlier articles by Tom on this, I'm glad he did this longer-term work on the signal. I'll try to add some fund-flow & speculative positioning data to it.
Thanks, Puma. That article speaks
Posted by a_l_ on 9th of Oct 2015 at 11:39 am
Thanks, Puma. That article speaks to the risk -- that is, short covering technically weakens a market by taking covering buyers out of it; and the kind of squeeze we just witnessed could really weaken it without evidence of new buyers coming in. I will do some work on that when the COT comes out today and over the next week to see if there's supporting evidence for the signal.
As of 10/6, hedge funds
Posted by a_l_ on 13th of Oct 2015 at 01:58 pm
As of 10/6, hedge funds were not only not covering ES shorts, but doubling down to YTD high net shorts. They have had a performance problem shorting low & buying high this year, and that may be continuing for now. Maybe they have staying power this time. We'll see.
Broad Market Money Flow, in line with the Zweig signal, continued positive last week.
I was talking to one
Posted by matt on 13th of Oct 2015 at 02:18 pm
I was talking to one of the funds the other day, many of these guys follow seasonality i.e. read the StockTradersAlmanac and make big bets based on that. The fund I was talking to has been bullish who for example is bullish as we had a down Aug and Sept, which historically bodes well for Oct and year end rally. At least that's what this guy/fund does, wouldn't surprise me if more of them do it.
But again as I talked about last night, even under a bullish W type of scenario, there will be a pullback to form a higher low and we have a plenty of resistance let above, still the 2021 trend, and 2019 pivot, the 200 EMA, the 61.8% Fib, and the broken neckline of the rounded top H&S pattern from the summer which was lost in Aug, comes in around 2040 - 2050
we'll see what transpires....
Pessimism seems to be running
Posted by a_l_ on 13th of Oct 2015 at 02:36 pm
Pessimism seems to be running high, but if the market continues up they'll probably end up chasing it late per their recent pattern.
All breadth thrusts start with a short squeeze I thought?
Posted by torvix on 9th of Oct 2015 at 11:16 am
Its always "short covering" on a rally initiation. Just saying.
Some brokers have specific workspaces
Posted by steve on 8th of Oct 2015 at 05:41 pm
Some brokers have specific workspaces for the Zweig Breadth Thrust and that's what I was inquiring about...if someone would confirm the signal.
I already have the stockcharts version and thanks to all.
peterwelsh..the ZBT is a very
Posted by steve on 8th of Oct 2015 at 05:08 pm
peterwelsh..the ZBT is a very rare and BULLISH occurrence. It normally kick starts another uptrend but there can certainly be corrections along the way. Trade your plan.
If the pattern holds, it
Posted by junkie on 8th of Oct 2015 at 06:15 pm
If the pattern holds, it would set a retest of MA(200) at 2061 over time. There is little resistance between the today's close and that area. $NYMO is sky high at the moment though.
ZBT - Chart Link from Stockcharts
Posted by scoca1 on 8th of Oct 2015 at 04:53 pm
ZBT - Chart Link from Stockcharts